Leading Economists Offer Their Forecasts for 2012

 　　After a tough year in which the global economy faced one headwind after another, U.S. economists² are weighing in on what is in store for 2012. When it comes to the U.S. budget, unemployment and the crisis in Europe - many believe 2012 will bring more of the same.

　　From the U.S. budget showdown to fears of a "double-dip" recession - 2011 was a year when the economy muddled³ from one crisis to the next.

　　Economist¹ Mark Vitner at Wells Fargo Bank said that in many ways, 2012 will probably look a lot like 2011.

　　"The first half of the year, growth is likely to come in below expectations. We're likely to see fears of recession crop up, particularly if things in Europe get a little dicey [troubled], but by mid-year or certainly by late summer, the data should turn a little bit more positive," said Vitner.

　　By then, the campaign to choose the next U.S. president will be in full swing. Jobs are expected to be on people's minds. And with an economy projected to grow too slowly to reduce the unemployment rate of 8.6 percent, economist Beth Ann Bovino at Standard and Poor's said jobs are likely to remain scarce.

　　"I'm expecting the unemployment rate to go up a little bit more, stay at 9 percent through the year, and then start to come down as the recovery gets a little bit more momentum," said Bovino.

　　Economist George Perry at the Brookings Institution takes a more optimistic view.

　　"Unless the Europe situation blows up, or if I'm wrong on the China situation and China doesn't speed up, I think the U.S. unemployment rate will be lower at the end of the year than it is now," Perry.

　　Nigel Gault at IHS Global Insight said the bigger threat comes from economic stagnation⁴ in the 17 countries that use the euro.

　　"The eurozone is the single biggest threat, not just from a eurozone recession. It's from the risk of recession combined with a eurozone financial crisis that develops into a major global financial crisis. In the worst case, it could be as bad as we saw in 2008, 2009," said Gault.

　　Most economists say all bets are off if struggling nations such as Greece decide to abandon the euro. Adding to worries is the intense focus on sovereign debt, both in the U.S. and abroad. While necessary, many economists say in the short term, spending cuts and austerity measures can only weaken an already sluggish⁵ global recovery.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 muddled   

adj.混乱的；糊涂的；头脑昏昏然的v.弄乱，弄糟( muddle的过去式)；使糊涂；对付，混日子

参考例句：

• He gets muddled when the teacher starts shouting. 老师一喊叫他就心烦意乱。
• I got muddled up and took the wrong turning. 我稀里糊涂地拐错了弯。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

5 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。