如何在机器人时代不纠结

 An IBM executive told a recent conference that when supercomputer Deep Blue was halfway¹ through its 1997 chess match with Garry Kasparov, it made a random² move, due to a software bug³. Assuming the machine was smarter than it was, Kasparov later made a strategic error that helped hand Deep Blue victory in the match.

IBM的一位高管在最近的一次会议上表示，1997年超级计算机“深蓝”(Deep Blue)与加里?卡斯帕罗夫(Garry Kasparov)进行国际象棋比赛，在对弈到一半时，“深蓝”由于软件故障走了一步闲棋。卡斯帕罗夫认为“深蓝”后来变聪明了，他本人犯了一个战略性错误，从而帮助深蓝获得了比赛的胜利。

Thomas Davenport and Julia Kirby warn that humans could, like Kasparov, cede⁴ the future to machines too easily.

托马斯?达文波特(Thomas Davenport)和茱莉亚?柯比(Julia Kirby)警告称，与卡斯帕罗夫一样，人类可能轻易将未来拱手让给机器。

“Many knowledge workers are fearful,” they write. “We should be concerned, given the potential for these unprecedented⁵ tools to make us redundant⁶. But we should not feel helpless in the midst of the large-scale change unfolding around us.”

他们写道：“许多知识型员工非常担心。鉴于这些史无前例的工具有可能导致我们失去工作，我们应该担心。但面对我们身边正在出现的大规模变化，我们也不用感到茫然无助。”

Only Humans Need Apply falls into the sub-genre of techno-optimism, at the opposite end of the bookshelf from, say, Martin Ford’s doomier Rise of the Robots .

《只有人类需要求职》(Only Humans Need Apply)可以归入“技术乐观派”的类别，书架的另一端则有马丁?福特(Martin Ford)较为悲观的著作——《机器人时代》(Rise of the Robots)。

Not all of every job can be automated⁸, the authors point out. Change may be a long time coming (they cite futurist Paul Saffo’s wise insight: “Never mistake a clear view for a short distance”). Critically, humans have the power to shape their destiny. They can develop, program and direct machines, and adapt to working with them, in a process of “augmentation” rather than mere⁹ automation. Machines, up to now “the brawn¹⁰ to our brains, can become the brains to our brio”.

《只有人类需要求职》的两位作者指出，并非每一种工作都可以自动化。变化可能在一个漫长的时期内发生——他们援引未来学家保罗?萨福(Paul Saffo)的至理名言：Never mistake a clear view for a short distance（望山跑死马）。关键是，人类有能力塑造自己的命运。在“扩增”(augmentation)而非简单自动化的过程中，人们可以开发机器、给机器编程以及向机器下指令，调整自身以适应与机器合作。机器至今“对我们的大脑来说就犹如肌肉，它们可以成为大脑，使我们获得精神上的愉悦”。

Having deftly¹¹ outlined the gloomier forecasts, Kirby and Davenport lay out how to avoid submission¹² to, or substitution by, machines. A few senior managers will step up into overseeing automated systems. Other workers will step aside, by developing careers in areas machines are not as good at, such as motivation, creativity or empathy.

柯比和达文波特列举了一些较为悲观的预测，阐述如何避免被机器压迫或者取代。少数高级经理将“向上迈步”，从事监控自动化系统的岗位。其他劳动者将会“向旁边迈步”，在激励、创造或移情等机器不擅长的领域发展职业。

Still others will step in (by learning more about how computers work and how to improve them), step narrowly (becoming super-specialists), or step forward to develop new systems and technology.

还有些人将会“迈进”这一行（通过进一步学习计算机工作原理并研究如何改进它们）、专攻某个狭窄领域（成为超级专家），或者“向前迈步”开发新的系统和技术。

Plenty of people have already made these changes, and they describe many of them. Here is the redundant lawyer who “stepped in” to become an expert overseer of automated contract reviews; or the editor who “stepped up” to develop a computerised system for preparing and publishing sports statistics and earnings¹³ reports. If you pair adaptable¹⁴ humans with computers, you can remove tedious tasks and manage the change humanely¹⁵.

许多人已经做出了这些改变，并描述了其中的诸多变化。这里有丢了工作的律师“迈进”这一行，成为一名自动化合同审查的专业监督者；也有编辑“向上迈步”，开发了一套计算机化系统，用于准备和发布运动统计数据和盈利报告。如果将适应能力强的人与计算机搭配，就可以消除单调乏味的工作，人性化地应对这种变化。

Developers must “look for ways to help humans perform their most human and most valuable work better”, the authors say. Simply asserting this bright future will not make it occur, however. The temptation for bosses to opt⁷ for the most efficient robot solution is strong. Davenport and Kirby “expect corporations’ efforts to keep human workers employable will become part of their ‘social licence to operate’”. But is that wishful thinking and, even if not, will it happen soon enough?

两位作者表示，开发者必须“设法帮助人类更好地进行最具有人性特点、最有价值的工作”。然而，只是简单断言这种光明未来不会让它变成现实。促使老板们选择最有效的机器人解决方案的诱因会非常强烈。达文波特和柯比“希望企业让人类工人可就业的努力将成为他们‘社会运营执照’的一部分”。但这是一厢情愿的想法，或者即便不是一厢情愿，它能及时实现吗？

This is a fine call to action in the face of uncertainty¹⁶. But let us program the automated story-writing tool for a sequel in 2026. Only then will we know whether humans who stepped up, in or forward, sustained a fulfilling working existence, or were merely treading water ahead of a tsunami¹⁷.

面对不确定的前景，这是一个很好的行动号召。但是让我们为2026年的续集设计自动化的故事创作工具吧。只有到那时我们才会知道，那些向上、向内或者向前迈步的人们是维持了充实的工作存在，还是只是在海啸来临前蹚水。

1 halfway   

adj.中途的，不彻底的，部分的；adv.半路地，在中途，在半途

参考例句：

• We had got only halfway when it began to get dark.走到半路，天就黑了。
• In study the worst danger is give up halfway.在学习上，最忌讳的是有始无终。

2 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。

3 bug   

n.虫子；故障；窃听器；vt.纠缠；装窃听器

参考例句：

• There is a bug in the system.系统出了故障。
• The bird caught a bug on the fly.那鸟在飞行中捉住了一只昆虫。

4 cede   

v.割让，放弃

参考例句：

• The debater refused to cede the point to her opponent.辩论者拒绝向她的对手放弃其主张。
• Not because I'm proud.In fact,in front of you I cede all my pride.这不是因为骄傲，事实上我在你面前毫无骄傲可言。

5 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

6 redundant   

adj.多余的，过剩的；(食物)丰富的；被解雇的

参考例句：

• There are too many redundant words in this book.这本书里多余的词太多。
• Nearly all the redundant worker have been absorbed into other departments.几乎所有冗员，都已调往其他部门任职。

7 opt   

vi.选择，决定做某事

参考例句：

• They opt for more holiday instead of more pay.他们选择了延长假期而不是增加工资。
• Will individual schools be given the right to opt out of the local school authority?各个学校可能有权选择退出地方教育局吗？

8 automated   

a.自动化的

参考例句：

• The entire manufacturing process has been automated. 整个生产过程已自动化。
• Automated Highway System (AHS) is recently regarded as one subsystem of Intelligent Transport System (ITS). 近年来自动公路系统(Automated Highway System,AHS)，作为智能运输系统的子系统之一越来越受到重视。

9 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

10 brawn   

n.体力

参考例句：

• In this job you need both brains and brawn.做这份工作既劳神又费力。
• They relied on brains rather than brawn.他们靠的是脑力，而不是体力。

11 deftly   

adv.灵巧地，熟练地，敏捷地

参考例句：

• He deftly folded the typed sheets and replaced them in the envelope. 他灵巧地将打有字的纸折好重新放回信封。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At last he had a clew to her interest, and followed it deftly. 这一下终于让他发现了她的兴趣所在，于是他熟练地继续谈这个话题。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

12 submission   

n.服从，投降；温顺，谦虚；提出

参考例句：

• The defeated general showed his submission by giving up his sword.战败将军缴剑表示投降。
• No enemy can frighten us into submission.任何敌人的恐吓都不能使我们屈服。

13 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

14 adaptable   

adj.能适应的，适应性强的，可改编的

参考例句：

• He is an adaptable man and will soon learn the new work.他是个适应性很强的人，很快就将学会这种工作。
• The soil is adaptable to the growth of peanuts.这土壤适宜于花生的生长。

15 humanely   

adv.仁慈地；人道地；富人情地；慈悲地

参考例句：

• Is the primary persona being treated humanely by the product? 该产品对待首要人物角色时是否有人情味？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• In any event, China's interest in treating criminals more humanely has limits. 无论如何，中国对更人道地对待罪犯的兴趣有限。 来自互联网

16 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

17 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。