黄金市场或将迎来风暴 两极分化

 　　Gold prices have rallied more than 30 per cent since the lift-off in US interest rates in December. A sharp reversal in pricing, sentiment and positioning driven by myriad¹ factors has left gold bears and bulls as polarised as ever.

　　自去年12月美国加息以来，黄金价格已劲升逾30%。多种因素导致的定价、情绪以及投资头寸的巨大逆转，令黄金多空双方一如既往地两极分化。

　　The bearish² camp, with analysts³ such as those at Goldman Sachs, tends to have a constructive⁴ view on the US dollar and the ability to raise interest rates and normalise global monetary⁵ policy, and generally a benign⁶ view on the global economy and inflationary risks.

　　看空黄金的阵营（例如高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师等）往往对美元以及央行加息与使全球货币政策正常化的能力持积极观点，并且通常对全球经济和通胀风险持乐观态度。

　　In the bullish camp, to which I subscribe⁷, the view tends to be more pessimistic on the global economy and the unintended consequences of monetary policy without limits. It sees the recent price action as the beginning of a multi-year bull run in gold.

　　看涨黄金的阵营（我属于这个阵营）通常对全球经济以及毫无限制的货币政策的意外后果较为悲观。他们把最近的价格走势视为黄金多年牛市的开始。

　　My view — that there is a perfect storm for gold — is based on three closely interrelated dynamics⁸.

　　我认为，黄金正面临一个完美风暴，这基于3个密切相关的因素。

　　The first is the limits of monetary policy. In response to the Lehman crisis and to combat the threat of deflation, central banks have deployed⁹ a wide range of unconventional monetary policies. Quantitative¹⁰ easing and negative interest rates have been game changers — distorting the valuation of government bonds, breaking the theoretical ceiling in prices, squeezing shorts and underweight positions, and feeding what, in my view, is one of the largest financial bubbles in history.

　　首先是货币政策的局限。为应对雷曼(Lehman)危机和抵御通缩威胁，央行动用了一系列非传统的货币政策。量化宽松和负利率已改变了形势，它们扭曲了政府债券的估值，打破了价格的理论天花板，挤压了空头和减持头寸，并助长了在我看来历史上规模最大的金融泡沫之一。

　　At the epicentre of the problem are the central banks. Investors¹¹ and savers around the world, faced with extraordinarily¹² low and even negative yields in cash and fixed¹³ income, have been incentivised — if not forced — to lengthen¹⁴ the duration in their portfolios¹⁵, increasing the risk of capital losses, liquidity¹⁶ and volatility¹⁷ beyond what they might intend or be able to tolerate.

　　这些问题的核心是央行。面对现金和固定收益证券的超低甚至负收益率，全球的投资者和储户被鼓励（如果不是被迫的话）延长投资组合的期限，从而令资金损失、流动性和波动性的风险超过人们可能愿意或有能力容忍的水平。

　　Second, examine the edges of credit markets. The bubble in government bonds and duration has driven risk-taking across equity¹⁸ and credit markets, and lending to weaker and weaker credits, often ignoring or underplaying the risk of capital losses, liquidity and volatility. It’s a bull market that feeds on itself and benefits the weakest players most, such as emerging markets or high yield.

　　其次，考察一下信贷市场的边缘吧。政府债券的泡沫和期限加大了股票和信贷市场的风险承担，并促使贷款被发放给信用越来越差的人，资金损失、流动性和波动性的风险往往被忽视或低估。这个牛市正自噬其身，而最受益的是那些最弱的参与者，例如新兴市场或高收益债券。

　　In a world with limited investment opportunities, excessive risk-taking can lead to speculation¹⁹ and, of course, bubbles. The damage is done but can get worse, especially if countries such as China respond to future crises with more aggressive credit expansions, as it did this year.

　　在一个投资机会有限的世界里，过度的风险承担可能导致投机，当然还有泡沫。损害已经造成，但还可能变得更糟，特别是如果中国等国用更激进的信贷扩张应对未来危机，就像今年中国所做的那样。

　　The current path of monetary and credit expansion is unsustainable and will eventually burst, leaving investors struggling for the return of their capital, instead of return on their capital — an extremely bullish scenario²⁰ for gold and other real assets.

　　当前的货币和信贷扩张道路是不可持续的，终将破灭，导致投资者难以收回本金，而不只是投资收益，这对于黄金和其他实物资产而言是一个极其利好的情形。

　　Third, the limits of fiat²¹ currencies are being tested. Unlike in the global financial crisis of 2008, this time there won’t be any monetary bullets left. Interest rates are already at record lows, asset purchases suffer from the law of diminishing returns, and competitive currency devaluations only increase underlying²² problems and global imbalances. A dangerous slippery slope that paper cures miss is that they “eventually converge²³ to their intrinsic value: paper”, as Voltaire warned.

　　第三，法定货币的局限性正受到检验。与2008年的全球金融危机不同，这一次将不会有任何货币政策弹药。利率已处于创纪录低点，资产购买遭遇收益递减，而竞争性货币贬值只是加剧了根本问题和全球失衡。就像伏尔泰(Voltaire)警告的那样，纸币疗法忽视的危险滑坡是纸币将“最终归于它们的内在价值：纸”。

　　Over the past few years we have witnessed the first stage of Gresham’s law, whereby “bad money displaces good money”, and we are at the early stages of the second and final phase, whereby “good money displaces bad money”.

　　过去几年，我们见证了格雷欣法则(Gresham’s law)的第一阶段，即“劣币驱逐良币”，我们现在处于第二、也是最后阶段的初期，那就是“良币驱逐劣币”。

　　Gold and the dollar are best placed to play the role of good money, which could result in a substantial appreciation²⁴ against the bad-money currencies. But the inability or unwillingness²⁵ of the US to normalise its monetary policy leaves the door wide open for gold to retake its reserve currency status and put an end to the monetary supercycle that started in 1971 with the end of Bretton Woods. It is a period in which the outstanding volume of paper money has grown disproportionately to the amount of gold that once backed it.

　　黄金和美元正处于发挥良币作用的最佳时机，这可能使它们相对于劣币大幅升值。但美国无法或者不愿将其货币政策正常化，这为黄金重夺储备货币地位并终结本轮货币超级周期打开大门。这个超级周期始于1971年布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods)瓦解时。这段时期发行的纸币数量远远超过了曾经支撑纸币的黄金的数量。

　　Time will tell if central banks and governments will be able to engineer a smooth solution to the challenges ahead, or if the remedy will be worse than the disease.

　　时间将证明央行和政府能否为未来的危机找到一个平稳的解决方案，或者这种疗法是否比疾病本身还糟。

　　Monetary policy without limits will lead to a very wild and bumpy²⁶ ride and a larger crisis than the one we have been trying to resolve: a perfect storm for gold.

　　没有限制的货币政策将带来一段非常荒蛮且崎岖的路程，而且会导致一场规模更大的危机：黄金的完美风暴。其规模将超过我们一直试图化解的这场危机。

 

1 myriad   

adj.无数的；n.无数，极大数量

参考例句：

• They offered no solution for all our myriad problems.对于我们数不清的问题他们束手无策。
• I had three weeks to make a myriad of arrangements.我花了三个星期做大量准备工作。

2 bearish   

adj.(行情)看跌的，卖空的

参考例句：

• It is foolish not to invest in stocks,so I will show her how to be bearish without them too,if she chooses.不投资股票是愚蠢的，因此如果她选择股票，我会向她展示怎样在没有长期潜力的情况下进行卖空。
• I think a bearish market must be a good time for bargain-hunters to invest.我觉得熊市对于想买低的人可是个投资的大好机会。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 constructive   

adj.建设的，建设性的

参考例句：

• We welcome constructive criticism.我们乐意接受有建设性的批评。
• He is beginning to deal with his anger in a constructive way.他开始用建设性的方法处理自己的怒气。

5 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

6 benign   

adj.善良的，慈祥的；良性的，无危险的

参考例句：

• The benign weather brought North America a bumper crop.温和的气候给北美带来大丰收。
• Martha is a benign old lady.玛莎是个仁慈的老妇人。

7 subscribe   

vi.(to)订阅，订购；同意；vt.捐助，赞助

参考例句：

• I heartily subscribe to that sentiment.我十分赞同那个观点。
• The magazine is trying to get more readers to subscribe.该杂志正大力发展新订户。

8 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

9 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

10 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

12 extraordinarily   

adv.格外地；极端地

参考例句：

• She is an extraordinarily beautiful girl.她是个美丽非凡的姑娘。
• The sea was extraordinarily calm that morning.那天清晨，大海出奇地宁静。

13 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

14 lengthen   

vt.使伸长，延长

参考例句：

• He asked the tailor to lengthen his coat.他请裁缝把他的外衣放长些。
• The teacher told her to lengthen her paper out.老师让她把论文加长。

15 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网

16 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

17 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

18 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

19 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

20 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

21 fiat   

n.命令，法令，批准；vt.批准，颁布

参考例句：

• The opening of a market stall is governed by municipal fiat.开设市场摊位受市政法令管制。
• He has tried to impose solutions to the country's problems by fiat.他试图下令强行解决该国的问题。

22 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

23 converge   

vi.会合；聚集，集中；(思想、观点等)趋近

参考例句：

• The results converge towards this truth.其结果趋近于这个真理。
• Parallel lines converge at infinity.平行线永不相交。

24 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

25 unwillingness   

n. 不愿意，不情愿

参考例句：

• Her unwillingness to answer questions undermined the strength of her position. 她不愿回答问题，这不利于她所处的形势。
• His apparent unwillingness would disappear if we paid him enough. 如果我们付足了钱，他露出的那副不乐意的神情就会消失。

26 bumpy   

adj.颠簸不平的，崎岖的

参考例句：

• I think we've a bumpy road ahead of us.我觉得我们将要面临一段困难时期。
• The wide paved road degenerated into a narrow bumpy track.铺好的宽阔道路渐渐变窄，成了一条崎岖不平的小径。