非洲有望打破全球稀土供应格局

 　　Vital for so many modern technologies, rare earths remain among the most sought-after minerals on the planet. It was recently suggested at the American Association for the Advancement¹ of Science that the sea beds should be mined for them.

　　对如此多现代技术必不可少的稀土，仍然是地球上最抢手的矿物之一。美国科学促进会(American Association for the Advancement of Science)最近提议应开采海床以获得稀土。

　　Currently, global demand is met largely by China. However, the fact that Rainbow Rare Earths, which owns a project in Burundi, successfully listed on the London Stock Exchange at the end of January has prompted speculation² that China’s dominance may finally be challenged. Such talk may be premature³ but it does suggest that now is a good time to assess the current state of play in the market.

　　目前，全球稀土需求大部分由中国的供应满足。然而，在布隆迪拥有一处稀土项目的Rainbow Rare Earths公司1月底在伦敦证交所成功上市，这引发了对于中国的主导地位可能终将受到挑战的猜测。此类说法或许言之过早，但这的确表明，现在正是评估稀土市场当前格局的好时机。

　　China clearly continues to dominate global production. The latest available statistics (for 2015, from the US Geological Survey) give its annual production as slightly more than 100,000 tons. Australia, second in the list, trails with 10,000 tons. Only three other countries produce more that 1,000 tons a year (the US, Russia and Thailand with 4,100 tons, 2,500 tons and 1,100 tons, respectively). Africa currently figures nowhere.

　　中国显然继续主导着全球稀土生产。能获得的最新统计数据（来自美国地质调查局(US Geological Survey)的2015年的数据）显示，中国稀土的年产量略高于10万吨。排名第二的澳大利亚年产仅1万吨。其他年产量超过1000吨的国家只有3个（美国、俄罗斯、泰国，分别为4100吨、2500吨和1100吨）。非洲目前排不上号。

　　Despite China’s dominance of production, the same is not true of deposits. It is estimated that China has no more than 30 per cent of global deposits. The problem lies in the cost of bringing new deposits into production and the ability of one country with such a dominant⁴ position to flood the market and bring down prices, hitting the viability⁵ of new projects.

　　虽然中国在稀土生产上占据主导地位，但储量方面情况并非如此。据估计，中国稀土储量占全球总储量不超过30%。问题在于将新发现储量转化为产量的成本以及一个拥有绝对主导地位的国家能够用海量供应压低价格、从而让新项目难以存活。

　　As well as price challenges, new projects face environmental hurdles⁶. Projects in China have resulted in contaminated groundwater, radioactive tailings and other environmental issues.

　　除了价格挑战，新项目还面临环境方面的障碍。中国的稀土项目带来了地下水污染、放射性尾矿及其他环境问题。

　　In the 1990s, the US supplied its domestic demand for rare earths from its own production. But that ceased when low-cost minerals from China entered the market. It is speculated that China continues to stockpile rare earths, maintaining to some extent its ability to control global prices.

　　上世纪90年代，美国本国的稀土生产可以满足其国内需求。但来自中国的低价稀土进入美国市场后，美国就停止了稀土生产。外界猜测，中国将继续囤积稀土，在一定程度上保持其控制全球稀土价格的能力。

　　Mounting a challenge to Chinese dominance has been talked of for years. Several current macro trends are now likely to accelerate such a challenge. Demand for rare earths is set to increase significantly.

　　向中国的主导地位发起挑战是一个老生常谈的话题。当前的几大宏观趋势如今很可能加速这样的挑战。对稀土的需求势必将大幅增加。

　　Historically, their major use has been in components⁷ for the telecoms, computer and other electronics industries (they are particularly important in making high-performance magnets). A growing need for enhanced battery technologies will boost demand. A rise in protectionism suggests new strategic imperatives⁸ for countries such as the US and Russia to recommence or increase domestic production.

　　过去，稀土主要被用于制造电信、计算机和其他电子工业的组件（稀土对高性能磁体制造尤为重要)。对增强型电池技术不断增长的需求将提振对稀土的需求。贸易保护主义的兴起对美国、俄罗斯等国意味着新的战略紧迫性，即需要重新开始或增加国内稀土生产。

　　It is widely acknowledged that, outside North America and Australia, southern and eastern Africa offer the greatest potential for rare earth production, especially in South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique. Kenya, Burundi, Zambia and Namibia are also mentioned.

　　目前公认的是，除了北美和澳大利亚，非洲南部和东部拥有的生产稀土的潜力最大，特别是南非、坦桑尼亚、马拉维和莫桑比克。肯尼亚、布隆迪、赞比亚和纳米比亚也是。

　　Rainbow Rare Earths’ IPO is premised on its Gakara project in Burundi. The project is not yet producing and further exploration will be needed. The risks described in the IPO prospectus⁹ are a reminder¹⁰ of the difficulties of developing such projects, including pricing and environmental challenges and the need to produce ore at the required levels of concentration.

　　Rainbow公司的首次公开发行(IPO)，是以其在布隆迪Gakara的项目为前提的。该项目尚未投产，还需要进一步的勘探。公司招股说明书中描述的风险提醒了开发此类项目的种种困难，包括定价、环境挑战以及需要生产出符合元素浓度要求的矿石。

　　Rainbow raised ?8m at its IPO, at the top end of its target range. It has clearly generated interest in the rare earth industry. However, by itself the project is unlikely to make a large dent¹¹ in the overall global supply position. That will require bringing many more projects into production in the near to medium term. With the Lynas project in Australia being the only significant producer outside China there is a long way to go before Chinese domination is diluted¹². Clearly, though, African projects can make a significant contribution to correcting the imbalance.

　　Rainbow的首次公开发行筹集了800万英镑，处于目标区间的顶端。该公司显然已引起稀土行业的兴趣。然而，这一项目本身不大可能对全球整体供应状况造成很大影响。改变现状需要在短期至中期内让更多项目投产。鉴于唯一值得注意的非中国稀土生产商只有澳大利亚的Lynas公司一家，要瓦解中国的主导地位还有很长的路要走。不过，很显然，非洲的稀土项目可以在修正这种失衡方面做出重大贡献。

　　Ian Coles is a partner and head of the Global Mining Group at Mayer Brown LLP.

　　伊恩?科尔斯(Ian Coles)是美亚博律师事务所(Mayer Brown LLP)全球矿业小组主管、合伙人。

1 advancement   

n.前进，促进，提升

参考例句：

• His new contribution to the advancement of physiology was well appreciated.他对生理学发展的新贡献获得高度赞赏。
• The aim of a university should be the advancement of learning.大学的目标应是促进学术。

2 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

3 premature   

adj.比预期时间早的；不成熟的，仓促的

参考例句：

• It is yet premature to predict the possible outcome of the dialogue.预言这次对话可能有什么结果为时尚早。
• The premature baby is doing well.那个早产的婴儿很健康。

4 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

5 viability   

n.存活(能力)

参考例句：

• What is required to achieve or maintain such viability? 要达到或维持这种生存能力需要什么？
• Scientists are experimenting to find ways to ensure the viability of seeds for even longer periods of time. 正如我们所说，科学家正在试验努力寻找让种子的生命力更加延长的方法。

6 hurdles   

n.障碍( hurdle的名词复数 )；跳栏；（供人或马跳跃的）栏架；跨栏赛

参考例句：

• In starting a new company, many hurdles must be crossed. 刚开办一个公司时，必须克服许多障碍。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• There are several hurdles to be got over in this project. 在这项工程中有一些困难要克服。 来自辞典例句

7 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

8 imperatives   

n.必要的事( imperative的名词复数 )；祈使语气；必须履行的责任

参考例句：

• Nixon, however, had other imperatives. 但尼克松另有需要。 来自辞典例句
• There could be some cultural imperatives in there somewhere! 在公共传播那里，在某些方面，可能有更迫切的文化需要！ 来自互联网

9 prospectus   

n.计划书；说明书；慕股书

参考例句：

• An order form was included with the prospectus.订单附在说明书上。
• The prospectus is the most important instrument of legal document.招股说明书是上市公司信息披露制度最重要法律文件。

10 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

11 dent   

n.凹痕，凹坑；初步进展

参考例句：

• I don't know how it came about but I've got a dent in the rear of my car.我不知道是怎么回事，但我的汽车后部有了一个凹痕。
• That dent is not big enough to be worth hammering out.那个凹陷不大，用不着把它锤平。

12 diluted   

无力的，冲淡的

参考例句：

• The paint can be diluted with water to make a lighter shade. 这颜料可用水稀释以使色度淡一些。
• This pesticide is diluted with water and applied directly to the fields. 这种杀虫剂用水稀释后直接施用在田里。