2013年经济学人 一个衰落论者的观点

 

Books and Arts; Book Review;The future of Europe;A declinist's case

文艺；书评；欧洲的未来;一个衰落论者的观点

After the Fall: The End of the European Dream and the Decline of a Continent. By Walter Laqueur.

《衰落之后》：关于欧洲梦的终结和欧洲大陆的衰落, 作者：瓦特·拉克尔。

A distinguished¹ European historian who now lives and works in America, Walter Laqueur has turned into a leading prophet of European decline. His new book, “After the Fall”, stands as a summary of many pet themes: that the European Union has a weak economy with too lavish² a welfare state and little capacity for reform, a shrinking population and, worst of all, too many Muslim immigrants.

瓦特·拉克尔是一位杰出的欧洲历史学家，现居于美国，他已经成为欧洲衰落的主要预言者。他的新作《衰落之后》总结了许多目前备受关注的主题：欧盟的经济陷入虚弱状态，主要原因是太慷慨的福利状况、太少的改革能力，不断缩小的人口，以及最糟糕的是，太多的穆斯林移民。

Mr Laqueur makes many telling points. The euro crisis (which, like most observers, he did not foresee) has laid bare many of the continent's economic ills. It has confirmed the insouciance³ of Mediterranean⁴ countries, in particular, over the urgent need to improve their competitiveness. Europe's demographic outlook is worrying, with an ageing population dependent on a shrinking workforce—a picture that gets worse as one moves eastward⁵. And no European country has been a shining success at assimilating immigrants, especially (but not only) from Muslim countries.

拉克尔先生提出了许多生动的观点。欧洲危机（就像大多数观察家一样，他也没有预见到）深刻揭示出欧洲大陆的许多经济症结。特别的是，它证实了地中海国家对于提升它们国家的竞争力的紧迫需要的满不在乎。欧洲的人口年龄分布状况令人担忧，老龄化情况严重，而老年人赖以抚养的年轻劳动力数量萎缩，这一情况越往欧洲东部方向，就越为严重。并且，没有一个欧洲国家在融合移民方面具有显著的成功，特别是（但不仅仅是）吸纳那些来自穆斯林国家的移民方面。

Yet overall the author's gloom is still excessive. Europe's economic performance over the past decade has not been appreciably⁶ worse than America's, for example. Although it has a few basket-case countries, it also has (in Scandinavia and Germany, for instance) some of the world's strongest and most competitive economies. Moreover, the euro crisis is leading to more extensive reforms to repair battered⁷ public finances, increase liberalisation and bolster⁸ competition than would have seemed possible a few years ago.

尽管具有以上所有这些不利因素，但是作者的悲观情绪还是太多了。比如，过去十年欧洲的经济表现并不会比美国的经济表现有可察觉到的差距。尽管欧洲存在几个经济状况糟糕无比的国家，然而欧洲也拥有（例如斯卡迪纳维亚和德国）一些世界上最强大和最具竞争力的经济体。此外，与几年前所可能采取的措施相比，欧洲危机会导致欧洲国家采取更广泛的改革来修复重创的公共财政，促进自由化，以及鼓励竞争。

A bigger objection is the book's repeated and excessive stress on the supposedly damaging effects of Muslim immigration. Mr Laqueur stops short of subscribing⁹ to the worst fears of “Eurabia” once fashionable in right-wing American circles. But he overstates Islam's spread (there are perhaps 20m Muslims in Europe, just 4% of its current population of 500m). And he is surely wrong when he argues that Muslims will not assimilate, that sharia law may become widespread or that large parts of many European cities will come to resemble north Africa. An ageing continent needs immigrants. Moreover, both Turkey (which Mr Laqueur mostly traduces) and the Arab spring (which he barely mentions) suggest that reform and liberal democracy can, albeit¹⁰ with difficulties and arguments along the way, be made compatible with Islam.

一个更大的异议是关于这本书对于臆测的穆斯林移民的灾难性影响的重复和过度的强调。拉克尔先生没有采用曾经在右翼美国群体当中盛极一时的“阿拉伯化的欧洲大陆”的最深的恐惧。但是他过分夸大了伊斯兰教的发展（在欧洲大概有2000万穆斯林，只占现在欧洲5亿人口的4%）。可以确定的是，他有许多错误的地方，比如他认为穆斯林教众将不会融入欧洲大众，伊斯兰教法也许会在欧洲广泛传播，或者许多欧洲城市的大部分将变得和北非一样。一个不断老龄化的大陆需要移民。此外，土耳其（拉克尔先生曾经诋毁过）和阿拉伯之春运动（他很少提到）都表明，尽管在整个过程中具有重重困难和争议，但是改革和自由民主能够与伊斯兰教和谐相处。

The author's harangues¹¹ against Muslim immigration disfigure what is otherwise an interesting and provocative¹² book. So do several small errors that should have been picked up by a more careful publisher. The siloviki are not the political class in Russia, but a specific group linked to its security services; Greece joined the EU in 1981, not 2000, and Croatia will join in 2013, not 2011; the former mayor of London is called Ken¹³ not Neil Livingstone and the mayor of Amsterdam is Job not Jeff Cohen.

作者对于穆斯林移民的长篇大论毁掉了原本会是一本具有趣味和引起争议的书。更仔细的出版商原本应该找出一些小错误。西罗维基不是俄罗斯的政治阶级，而是与俄罗斯的安全部门有关联的特殊组织；希腊是在1981年加入欧盟，而不是2000年，克罗地亚将在2013年加入欧盟，而不是2011年；伦敦的前任市长名叫肯而不是内尔·利文斯通，阿姆斯特丹的市长是乔而不是杰夫·科恩。

In his conclusion Mr Laqueur concedes that “the prophets of declinism have been frequently wrong.” Nothing daunted¹⁴, he goes on cheerily to assert that the EU may break up. Yet though his predictions may be dubious¹⁵, his analysis is worth reading and pondering, especially by those who before the euro crisis were fond of declaring that Europe was showing the world a way to a better future.

在他的书的结尾拉克尔先生承认“预言衰退的预言家经常都被证明是错的”。但他毫无畏惧，他还是继续笃定的宣称欧盟或许会解体。尽管他的预言或许是值得怀疑的，但他的分析值得研读和深思，特别是对于那些在欧洲危机之前热衷于宣称欧洲向世界展示了一条通向更美好未来的道路的人。

1 distinguished   

adj.卓越的，杰出的，著名的

参考例句：

• Elephants are distinguished from other animals by their long noses.大象以其长长的鼻子显示出与其他动物的不同。
• A banquet was given in honor of the distinguished guests.宴会是为了向贵宾们致敬而举行的。

2 lavish   

adj.无节制的；浪费的；vt.慷慨地给予，挥霍

参考例句：

• He despised people who were lavish with their praises.他看不起那些阿谀奉承的人。
• The sets and costumes are lavish.布景和服装极尽奢华。

3 insouciance   

n.漠不关心

参考例句：

• He replied with characteristic insouciance:"So what?"他以一贯的漫不经心回答道：“那又怎样？”
• What explains this apparent insouciance?用什么能够解释这种视而不见呢？

4 Mediterranean   

adj.地中海的；地中海沿岸的

参考例句：

• The houses are Mediterranean in character.这些房子都属地中海风格。
• Gibraltar is the key to the Mediterranean.直布罗陀是地中海的要冲。

5 eastward   

adv.向东；adj.向东的；n.东方，东部

参考例句：

• The river here tends eastward.这条河从这里向东流。
• The crowd is heading eastward,believing that they can find gold there.人群正在向东移去，他们认为在那里可以找到黄金。

6 appreciably   

adv.相当大地

参考例句：

• The index adds appreciably to the usefulness of the book. 索引明显地增加了这本书的实用价值。
• Otherwise the daily mean is perturbed appreciably by the lunar constituents. 否则，日平均值就会明显地受到太阳分潮的干扰。

7 battered   

adj.磨损的；v.连续猛击；磨损

参考例句：

• He drove up in a battered old car.他开着一辆又老又破的旧车。
• The world was brutally battered but it survived.这个世界遭受了惨重的创伤,但它还是生存下来了。

8 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

9 subscribing   

v.捐助( subscribe的现在分词 )；签署，题词；订阅；同意

参考例句：

• I am subscribing for some of the books of a book club. 我预订了几本这家书刊俱乐部出版的书。 来自辞典例句
• I am glad to have such a pleasant opportunity of subscribing myself. 今后益望努力前途，为国效力。 来自互联网

10 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

11 harangues   

n.高谈阔论的长篇演讲( harangue的名词复数 )v.高谈阔论( harangue的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• "This so aggravated Hitler's pent-up feelings that he burst forth into one of his old harangues. 这下可激发了希特勒憋在心里的情绪，他居然故伎重演，破口大骂起来。 来自名作英译部分
• There is, however, a new self-confidence these days in China's familiar harangues anything it deems sovereign. 然而近来中国在针对认为涉及到其主权问题的说辞上表现出一种新的自信。 来自互联网

12 provocative   

adj.挑衅的，煽动的，刺激的，挑逗的

参考例句：

• She wore a very provocative dress.她穿了一件非常性感的裙子。
• His provocative words only fueled the argument further.他的挑衅性讲话只能使争论进一步激化。

13 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

14 daunted   

使（某人）气馁，威吓( daunt的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She was a brave woman but she felt daunted by the task ahead. 她是一个勇敢的女人，但对面前的任务却感到信心不足。
• He was daunted by the high quality of work they expected. 他被他们对工作的高品质的要求吓倒了。

15 dubious   

adj.怀疑的，无把握的；有问题的，靠不住的

参考例句：

• What he said yesterday was dubious.他昨天说的话很含糊。
• He uses some dubious shifts to get money.他用一些可疑的手段去赚钱。