2013年经济学人 中国经济不咋地 China’s economy not with a bang

 

China;China's economy;Not with a bang;

中国；中国经济；不咋地；

China's property prices and its local-government debt have started rising again. That may be a good thing

中国的房地产价格和地方政府债务又开始上升了，这或许是件好事

FangZhuang, a high-rise neighbourhood tucked inside Beijing's third ring road, was one of China's first commercial housing projects. Its four divisions share a park, schools, a courthouse and a Carrefour supermarket. Characters in the divisions' four names combine to mean “stars of the ancient world”. Back in 1990 Fangzhuang flats sold for about 1,500 yuan (234 Dollar at today's rate) per square metre, according to Credit Suisse, a bank. Since then, prices have reached for the stars of the modern world, exceeding 30,000 yuan in that part of Beijing.

挤在北京三环内的高层住宅区——方庄，曾是中国第一个商业住宅项目。它的四个小区共用一个公园、学校、一个法院和一个家乐福超市。将这四个小区名字中间的汉字连起来就是“古城群星”。根据瑞士信贷——一家银行（的消息），早在1990年，方庄公寓大概卖1500元（按今天的汇率合234美元）一平米。从那以后，价格就成了当世巨星，北京那一块的价格超过了３万元。

China's unruly property market was once dubbed¹, with excusable hyperbole, the “most important sector² in the entire global economy” by Jonathan Anderson, then at UBS, another Swiss bank. It remains³ the biggest fear hanging over the world's second-biggest economy. Home prices began falling about a year ago. The declines have depressed⁴ investment and curtailed⁵ economic growth, which slowed to 7.6% in the second quarter, its slowest rate since 2009.

中国不规范的房地产市场曾被当时在瑞银信贷——另一家瑞士银行——的乔纳森安德森封为“整个全球经济中最重要的部分”，（这里）运用了适当的夸张。它还是悬在世界第二大经济体之上的最大担忧。住宅价格约一年前开始下跌。该下跌抑制了投资，还缩减了经济增长，二季度经济增长减缓至7.6%——2009年以来最慢的增长率。

The only economic anxiety to rival property is local-government debt. Estimated at 10.7 trillion yuan at the end of 2010 by official auditors⁶ (and a lot higher by unofficial ones), much of it was held at one remove by so-called local-government financing vehicles. When one such, Yunnan Highway Development and Investment, told creditors⁷ in 2011 that it would not repay the principal on their loans, it was described (with equal hyperbole) as the “default heard around the world” by Business Insider, a news website.

唯一能与房地产匹敌的经济上的忧虑就是地方政府债务了。2010年底官方审计部门估计有1.7万亿元（然而非官方估计要高出很多），其中很多（丛政府）隔离出来让所谓的地方政府融资平台持有。当这样的一家公司——云南高速公路开发投资公司，在2011年告诉债权人将不会归还他们贷款的本金时，这被一家新闻网站——《商业内幕》——形容（运用适当夸张）为“地球人都知道的违约”。

Both worries have roots in the stimulus⁸ spree on which China embarked⁹ in November 2008. State-owned enterprises began bidding enthusiastically in land auctions¹⁰, and local governments let their pet projects run wild. Ever since, the two problems have preoccupied¹¹ China's central government. In April 2010 it put curbs¹³ on speculative¹⁴ homebuying and spent much of last year tidying up local finances. This spring, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, boasted that local-government debt had grown by a mere¹⁵ 300m yuan in 2011.

这些忧虑都源于中国2008年11月着手的经济刺激计划。国有企业开始在土地拍卖中狂热地竞标，而地方政府让他猛宠爱的项目撒野了。从此，这两个问题就困扰中国的中央政府了。在2010年4月，它开始限制投资性住房的买入，还用了去年大部分时间清理地方融资问题。今年春季，总理温家宝自豪地说，2011年地方政府债务只增长了3个亿。

Signs, however, are growing that both property prices and local-government borrowing are rising again. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that new home prices rose in June in 25 of 70 cities it tracks. They fell in only 21. Sales volumes also strengthened. Prices are still lower, on average, than a year ago. But according to our weighted average of the (new and existing) home prices reported by the NBS, the pace of decline appears to be bottoming out (see chart). By next month (thanks to a lower base), prices may be rising again, year-on-year.

不过，房地产价格和地方政府借款又再增加的迹象开始浮现了。中国国家统计局报告称，六月份它所追踪的70座城市中有25座的新房价格增长了。只有21座城市的下跌了，成交量也增加了。平均价格仍比一年以前便宜。不过，根据我们对统计局报告中（新房及二手）房屋价格的加权平均，下降的步伐貌似要见底回升了（见图）。到下个月（幸亏有个更低的垫底），与去年同期相比，价格可能又要涨了。

Local governments meanwhile have been given leave from their debtors¹⁶' prison. Reports suggest that China's banking¹⁷ regulator has told banks to increase lending to “better qualified” financing vehicles. These vehicles have also increased their bond sales, issuing over 420 billion yuan-worth of paper already this year.

同时，地方政府也被放出了借款者的牢笼。报告称，中国银行也监管机构已经让各家银行对“更有资格”的融资平台增加贷款。这些融资平台也早就增发他们的债券，今年就已经发行了价值超过4200亿元的纸张了。

These twin turnarounds might be good news—a sign that property prices have stabilised and local governments have restored their creditworthiness. But they could also be signs of desperation, evidence that the central government has lost its nerve in the face of falling growth.

这一对转变可能是个好消息——标志着房地场价格已趋于平稳，而且地方政府也已重铸其贷款信誉。但这也可能是绝境的信号，证明中央政府已经在下降的经济增长面前失去了勇气。

The rise in local-government borrowing is something in between: a defensible response to a worrying slowdown. China's economy does need help, and its government has ample scope to provide it. Some local governments took on more debt than they could handle. But their liabilities never endangered the fiscal¹⁸ position of the country as a whole. The combined debts of China's central and local governments add up to about 50% of the country's GDP (including bonds issued by the Ministry¹⁹ of Railways and China's policy banks, intended for state-directed lending). Even if local debts are understated, China has fiscal room for error. Local governments will also borrow less and invest better than they did in the previous stimulus effort, argues Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation, a Chinese investment bank. “The pressure for policy easing is much less now than it was in November 2008,” he says.

地方政府借款的增长介于两者之间：是对令人忧愁的增长减速的防御性反应。中国经济确实需要帮助，而且政府也有足够的能力提供帮助。一些地方政府承担的债务大到自己无法处理，但它们的债务还无法危及整个国家的财政状况。中国中央和地方政府的债务总合加起来差不多到国家GDP的50% （包括铁道部和国家政策性银行用作国家直接借款而发行的债券）。就算地方政府的债务被低估了，中国也有容纳误差的财政空间。地方政府也会少借点，并且比他们在以前努力刺激时期投资得好一些，中金公司的彭文生反驳道，中金公司是一家中国的投行。他说，“目前进行政策宽松的压力要比2008年11月时的小很多”。

The rebound²⁰ in the property market is harder to interpret. It may also reflect a misreading of government policy. Some local governments have eased property curbs surreptitiously, hoping to revive construction jobs and land sales (and thus their revenues). The central government is also keen to encourage first-time homebuyers. But it insists that it will still strictly²¹ enforce existing curbs on people, especially out-of-towners, buying more than one home. This week the State Council, China's cabinet, said it would send inspectors²² to 16 cities and provinces to curb¹² backsliding.

房地产市场的回弹则更难解释。它也可能反应出了对政府政策的误读。有些地方政府希望复苏建筑业的就业和土地出让（这就是他们的收入来源），已经偷偷放松了房地产的限制。中央政府也期望能够鼓励初次购房者。但它也坚持仍将严格实施目前的限制，尤其是对外地人和购买多套住房者。本周，中国的议会——国务院声明它将派出巡视员到16个省市去控制倒行逆施。

Yet in most cities, says Jinsong Du of Credit Suisse, it is ever easier to circumvent²³ the rules. He cites one high-profile launch in Shanghai where the flats went for 3m Dollar each. Even the estate agents on site admitted that most buyers already owned several other properties.

瑞士信贷的杜劲松说，但在大多数城市，很容易绕开这些规定。他以上海举了个印象深刻的例子，上海公寓达到了300万美元一套。就连房产中介都承认很多购买者已经拥有了好几处别的房地产。

But surely if China's property market was a burst bubble, even a forthright²⁴ relaxation²⁵ of controls would not reflate it? After America's property prices began falling in earnest, policymakers tried in vain for years to revive them. Japan has been trying to perk²⁶ up prices for more than 20 years.

不过毫无疑问，如果中国房地产市场是破裂的泡沫，就算是直接放松管制也不会让它再膨胀的。美国房地产价格开始下跌之后，政策制定者们试了好几年来重振它们都于事无补。日本试着恢复价格都已经试了20多年了。

China's property dynamics²⁷ may differ, however. In many asset bubbles, prices are pushed up by greedy investors²⁸, who borrow heavily to buy. When their creditors get nervous, they default or dump their assets. These fire sales quickly feed on themselves. But China's property-buyers are often wealthy firms and individuals looking for somewhere to park their savings²⁹. Certainly, they see property as an investment. But they do not necessarily expect prices to go through the roof. Give them any prospect³⁰ of beating inflation in the long run, and they will buy. China, after all, offers few other options.

不过，中国房地产动态可能不同。在很多资产泡沫中，价格被贪婪的投资者推高，他们借了很多去买的。当他们的债权人变得焦急时，他们就会违约或者倾售其资产。这些减价销售很快相互刺激恶化。但中国的房地产购买者常常是一些寻求存放其储蓄之处的富有公司和个人。当然，他们把房地产视为一种投资。不过他们当然没有预料到房价会飞涨。（只要）给他们任何预期能够在长期跑赢通胀的，他们都会买的。毕竟，中国没有提供别的（投资）选择。

1 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

5 curtailed   

v.截断，缩短( curtail的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Spending on books has been severely curtailed. 购书开支已被大大削减。
• Their public health programme had to be severely curtailed. 他们的公共卫生计划不得不大大收缩。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 auditors   

n.审计员，稽核员( auditor的名词复数 )；（大学课程的）旁听生

参考例句：

• The company has been in litigation with its previous auditors for a full year. 那家公司与前任审计员已打了整整一年的官司。
• a meeting to discuss the annual accounts and the auditors' report thereon 讨论年度报表及其审计报告的会议

7 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

9 embarked   

乘船( embark的过去式和过去分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• We stood on the pier and watched as they embarked. 我们站在突码头上目送他们登船。
• She embarked on a discourse about the town's origins. 她开始讲本市的起源。

10 auctions   

n.拍卖，拍卖方式( auction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They picked up most of the furniture at auctions in country towns. 他们大部分的家具都是在乡村镇上的拍卖处买的。 来自辞典例句
• Our dealers didn't want these cars, so we had to dump them at auctions. 我们的承销商都不要这些车子，因此我们只好贱价拍卖。 来自辞典例句

11 preoccupied   

adj.全神贯注的，入神的；被抢先占有的；心事重重的v.占据（某人）思想，使对…全神贯注，使专心于( preoccupy的过去式)

参考例句：

• He was too preoccupied with his own thoughts to notice anything wrong. 他只顾想着心事，没注意到有什么不对。
• The question of going to the Mount Tai preoccupied his mind. 去游泰山的问题盘踞在他心头。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

13 curbs   

v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• In executing his functions he is not bound by any legal curbs on his power. 在他履行职务时，他的权力是不受任何法律约束的。 来自辞典例句
• Curbs on air travel were being worked out and would shortly be announced. 限制航空旅行的有关规定正在拟定中，不久即将公布。 来自辞典例句

14 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

15 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

16 debtors   

n.债务人，借方( debtor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Never in a debtors' prison? 从没有因债务坐过牢么？ 来自英汉文学 - 双城记

17 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

18 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

19 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

20 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

21 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。

22 inspectors   

n.检查员( inspector的名词复数 )；（英国公共汽车或火车上的）查票员；（警察）巡官；检阅官

参考例句：

• They got into the school in the guise of inspectors. 他们假装成视察员进了学校。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Inspectors checked that there was adequate ventilation. 检查员已检查过，通风良好。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 circumvent   

vt.环绕，包围；对…用计取胜，智胜

参考例句：

• Military planners tried to circumvent the treaty.军事策略家们企图绕开这一条约。
• Any action I took to circumvent his scheme was justified.我为斗赢他的如意算盘而采取的任何行动都是正当的。

24 forthright   

adj.直率的，直截了当的 [同]frank

参考例句：

• It's sometimes difficult to be forthright and not give offence.又直率又不得罪人，这有时很难办到。
• He told me forthright just why he refused to take my side.他直率地告诉我他不肯站在我这一边的原因。

25 relaxation   

n.松弛，放松；休息；消遣；娱乐

参考例句：

• The minister has consistently opposed any relaxation in the law.部长一向反对法律上的任何放宽。
• She listens to classical music for relaxation.她听古典音乐放松。

26 perk   

n.额外津贴；赏钱；小费；

参考例句：

• His perks include a car provided by the firm.他的额外津贴包括公司提供的一辆汽车。
• And the money is,of course,a perk.当然钱是额外津贴。

27 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

28 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

29 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

30 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。