2014年经济学人 东南亚地区的东瀛资本 向外拓展

Japanese investment in South-East Asia

Outward bound

A weak domestic economy is spurring Japanese firms to expand abroad

IT IS not every day that the opening of a shopping centre attracts a prime minister, but then Aeon¹ Mall in Phnom Penh is not any old shopping centre. The Japanese-built complex is Cambodia's biggest, complete with an ice rink, television studio and bowling² alley³. For Hun Sen, the attending prime minister, it is a symbol of Japanese investment. Governments across South-East Asia are courting Japanese firms, and a torrent⁴ of yen⁵ is surging their way.

Japanese investment in the region doubled to 2.3 trillion yen (24 billion) last year, the latest in a series of sizeable increases. Part of that is mergers⁶ and acquisitions by Japanese firms, which have skimped⁷ on investment at home and so have a cash hoard⁸ of some 229 trillion. SoftBank, a Japanese mobile carrier, just led a 100m investment in Tokopedia, an Indonesian e-commerce firm; Toshiba, a conglomerate⁹, has pledged to invest 1 billion in South-East Asia over five years. A year ago Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan's biggest bank, spent 536 billion to buy 72% of Thailand's Bank of Ayudhya.

During the first wave of Japanese investment, in the 1980s and 1990s, money poured into Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, building up their automotive and electronics sectors¹⁰. That flow largely ceased after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, when Japanese firms began to focus on China's vast, cheap labour force.

Yet with labour costs now steadily¹¹ rising in China, and political tensions between Japan and China continuing to flare¹², South-East Asia looks attractive again. Japanese investment in China fell by nearly two-fifths last year, even as it grew in places like Cambodia. Although China is still Japan's biggest trading partner, Japanese firms invested nearly three times more in South-East Asia last year. For South-East Asian countries, too, Japan is an important hedge against China.

But the embrace of South-East Asia is not without its critics. Some worry that the headlong rush to the region by Japanese banks, in particular, may prove short-lived. In 2013 the Bank of Japan began buying bonds with newly created money (quantitative¹³ easing), as part of a plan by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, to banish¹⁴ deflation and boost growth. The central bank's purchases left Japanese banks with lots of cash: they keep roughly 15% of their assets as excess reserves at the BoJ, earning minuscule¹⁵ returns. Since demand for loans in Japan is still subdued¹⁶, they are hunting for borrowers abroad. Lending by Japanese banks to the rest of Asia, including China, has grown quickly since the end of 2012 and stood at 465 billion in June. But if Japan's monetary¹⁷ policy changes, such flows could reverse.

Meanwhile, Japan's government wants local firms to invest more at home. Quantitative easing has weakened the yen, making it more attractive to do so. But Japan's rapidly ageing population means the domestic market is shrinking, undermining the incentive¹⁸ to build new factories. For every Canon, a camera-maker, which recently said it would increase the share of its production in Japan, there are several counter-examples, such as Mitsubishi Motors, a carmaker, which is building a new factory in Indonesia. Japanese firms focus more on profits than in the past, thanks to improvements in corporate¹⁹ governance, notes Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank; that is prompting them to look for better prospects²¹ abroad.

With more production shifting abroad, Japan's exports are also suffering. Deutsche Bank estimates that outbound investment reduced Japan's trade balance by as much as 16 trillion yen in 2012, by providing local substitutes for Japanese exports. That is more than Japan's trade deficit²² that year of 7 trillion yen. Profits from abroad were not sufficient to make up for the damage to the current account. As overseas ventures accelerate, they will help tilt²³ Japan towards a trade deficit more often, leaving its financial system more vulnerable to the fragilities built up over decades.

The risk is that Japan could become a “rentier” economy, says Martin Schulz of the Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo. In this scenario²⁴, Japanese firms do not make the investments in Japan that are needed to generate broad-based wage growth, and focus instead on their foreign ventures. That would leave Japan living off the “rent” from its foreign assets, rather than the fruits of domestic economic activity.

That prospect²⁰ does not seem to be deterring²⁵ Japanese firms. Just outside Phnom Penh is a new industrial park set up to lure²⁶ Japanese manufacturers such as Minibea, which makes tiny motors for mobile phones, and Ajinomoto, which makes food seasonings²⁷. There is a constant stream of new tenants²⁸; the zone is now in its third phase of development, says Hiroshi Uematsu, who oversees²⁹ it. “As a private firm, you need to go somewhere,” he says.

1 aeon   

n.极长的时间；永久

参考例句：

• Aeons ago,there were deserts where there is now fertile land.现在是肥沃土地的地方在很久很久以前曾是一片片沙漠。
• Aeon on aeon thou existed in beauty.你永世永世活在美里。

2 bowling   

n.保龄球运动

参考例句：

• Bowling is a popular sport with young and old.保龄球是老少都爱的运动。
• Which sport do you 1ike most,golf or bowling?你最喜欢什么运动，高尔夫还是保龄球？

3 alley   

n.小巷，胡同；小径，小路

参考例句：

• We live in the same alley.我们住在同一条小巷里。
• The blind alley ended in a brick wall.这条死胡同的尽头是砖墙。

4 torrent   

n.激流，洪流；爆发，(话语等的)连发

参考例句：

• The torrent scoured a channel down the hillside. 急流沿着山坡冲出了一条沟。
• Her pent-up anger was released in a torrent of words.她压抑的愤怒以滔滔不绝的话爆发了出来。

5 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

6 mergers   

n.（两个公司的）合并( merger的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Mergers fall into three categories: horizontal, vertical, and conglomerate. 合并分为以下三种：横向合并，纵向合并和混合合并。 来自辞典例句
• Many recent mergers are concentrated within specific industries, particularly in retailing, airlines and communications. 现代许多合并企业集中进行某些特定业务，在零售业、民航和通讯业中更是如此。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件

7 skimped   

v.少用( skimp的过去式和过去分词 )；少给；克扣；节省

参考例句：

8 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

9 conglomerate   

n.综合商社，多元化集团公司

参考例句：

• The firm has been taken over by an American conglomerate.该公司已被美国一企业集团接管。
• An American conglomerate holds a major share in the company.一家美国的大联合企业持有该公司的大部分股份。

10 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

12 flare   

v.闪耀，闪烁；n.潮红；突发

参考例句：

• The match gave a flare.火柴发出闪光。
• You need not flare up merely because I mentioned your work.你大可不必因为我提到你的工作就动怒。

13 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

14 banish   

vt.放逐，驱逐；消除，排除

参考例句：

• The doctor advised her to banish fear and anxiety.医生劝她消除恐惧和忧虑。
• He tried to banish gloom from his thought.他试图驱除心中的忧愁。

15 minuscule   

adj.非常小的；极不重要的

参考例句：

• The human race only a minuscule portion of the earth's history.人类只有占有极小部分地球历史。
• As things stand,Hong Kong's renminbi banking system is minuscule.就目前的情况而言，香港的人民币银行体系可谓微不足道。

16 subdued   

adj. 屈服的，柔和的，减弱的 动词subdue的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He seemed a bit subdued to me. 我觉得他当时有点闷闷不乐。
• I felt strangely subdued when it was all over. 一切都结束的时候，我却有一种奇怪的压抑感。

17 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

18 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

19 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

20 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

21 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

22 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

23 tilt   

v.(使)倾侧；(使)倾斜；n.倾侧；倾斜

参考例句：

• She wore her hat at a tilt over her left eye.她歪戴着帽子遮住左眼。
• The table is at a slight tilt.这张桌子没放平，有点儿歪.

24 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

25 deterring   

v.阻止，制止( deter的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• However, investors say are a number of issues deterring business. 然而，投资者表示，有很多问题让他们却步。 来自互联网
• It's an effective way of deterring potential does online, the logic goes. 逻辑上这是抑制潜在线上威胁的有效方法。 来自互联网

26 lure   

n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• Life in big cities is a lure for many country boys.大城市的生活吸引着许多乡下小伙子。
• He couldn't resist the lure of money.他不能抵制金钱的诱惑。

27 seasonings   

n.调味品，佐料( seasoning的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• It emphasizes the use of seasonings, so no two dishes ever taste alike. 它对调味品十分讲究。因此，没有两个菜会有同样的味道。 来自地道口语脱口SHOW 高中超越版
• The food made of flour and various seasonings is called moon cake. 中秋节的食品也是圆圆的，也象征着团圆，这种用面和各种作料做的食品叫月饼。 来自互联网

28 tenants   

n.房客( tenant的名词复数 )；佃户；占用者；占有者

参考例句：

• A number of tenants have been evicted for not paying the rent. 许多房客因不付房租被赶了出来。
• Tenants are jointly and severally liable for payment of the rent. 租金由承租人共同且分别承担。

29 oversees   

v.监督，监视( oversee的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• She oversees both the research and the manufacturing departments. 她既监督研究部门又监督生产部门。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The Department of Education oversees the federal programs dealing with education. 教育部监管处理教育的联邦程序。 来自互联网