2018年经济学人 世界经济:特朗普别“撞车”(2)

 

The trade war is the biggest threat to global growth.

贸易战是全球经济发展最大的威胁。

On June 15th the White House confirmed that a 25% tariff¹ on up to $50bn of Chinese imports would soon go into effect.

美国对高达500亿美元的中国进口商品征收25%的关税，6月15日，白宫证实这一举措将很快生效。

Three days later, after China promised to retaliate²,

三天后，在中国放言会进行经济报复后，

the president expanded, by as much as $400bn, the other goods America is threatening to tax.

特朗普将其他威胁要增税的商品又增加了4000亿美元的税。

If he follows through, nine-tenths of roughly $500bn-worth of goods imported from China each year will face American levies³.

如果特朗普坚持下去，那么每年从中国进口的价值约5000亿美元的商品中，有90%将面临美国的征税。

Meanwhile, the European Union is poised⁴ to impose retaliatory⁵ tariffs⁶ in response to America's action against EU steel and aluminium⁷.

与此同时，欧盟准备对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国对欧盟的钢铁和铝征收关税。

No wonder markets have caught the jitters⁸.

难怪市场惴惴不安。

The president is unafraid of escalating⁹ trade disputes because he believes he has a winning hand.

特朗普不怕贸易争端不断，因为他认为自己一定会赢。

America buys from China almost four times as much as it sells there, limiting China's ability to match tariffs.

美国从中国进口的商品几乎是出口中国的四倍，这限制了中国在关税方面与之抗衡的能力。

The White House hopes this imbalance will lead China to yield to its demands,

美国政府希望这种不平衡会让中国屈服于它的要求，

some of which (cutting the theft of American firms'intellectual property) are more reasonable than others (shrinking the bilateral¹⁰ trade deficit¹¹).

某些要求(减少美国公司的知识产权被盗)比其他要求(减少双边贸易赤字)更为合理。

But Mr Trump¹² overestimates¹³ his bargaining power.

但特朗普高估了他的议价能力。

If China runs out of American goods to tax, it could raise existing tariffs higher.

如果中国对所有的美国商品征税，就可以将关税提到更高。

Or it could harass¹⁴ American firms operating in China.

抑或对在中国运营的美国公司造成困扰。

More important, the president's mercantilism blinds him to the damage he could inflict¹⁵ on America.

更重要的是，特朗普的重商主义让他看不到对美国经济造成的伤害。

He thinks it is better not to trade at all than to run a trade deficit.

特朗普认为完全不进行贸易往来比因贸易造成的赤字要好。

This folly¹⁶ also dictates¹⁷ his tactics towards Canada, Mexico and the EU.

这种愚蠢也让他对加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟采取了关税政策。

Mr Trump could yet withdraw from the North American Free-Trade Agreement and slap tariffs on cars.

特朗普可能仍会退出《北美自由贸易协定》,并对汽车强征关税。

The problem is not that America depends on trade.

问题不在于美国依赖贸易。

In fact, it is a big enough free-trade area for the eventual¹⁸ damage to GDP, even from a fully¹⁹ fledged trade war,

事实上，这是一个足够大的自由贸易区，对于最终国内生产总值的损害来讲，即使是一场全面的贸易战，

to be limited to a few percentage points (smaller, specialised economies are more dependent on trade and would suffer a lot more).

损失也会限制在几个百分点以内(较小的、专业化的经济体更依赖于贸易，会遭受更大的损失)。

Such self-in-flicted harm would impose a pointless cost on the average American household of perhaps thousands of dollars.

美国这种自损八百的行为会造成毫无意义的代价，平均到每个美国普通家庭，就是每家损失几千美元。

That would be bad, but it would hardly be fatal.

情况很糟糕，但是决不至于致命。

1 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

2 retaliate   

v.报复，反击

参考例句：

• He sought every opportunity to retaliate against his enemy.他找机会向他的敌人反击。
• It is strictly forbidden to retaliate against the quality inspectors.严禁对质量检验人员进行打击报复。

3 levies   

（部队）征兵( levy的名词复数 )； 募捐； 被征募的军队

参考例句：

• At that time, taxes and levies were as many as the hairs on an ox. 那时，苛捐杂税多如牛毛。
• Variable levies can insulate farmers and consumers from world markets. 差价进口税可以把农民和消费者与世界市场隔离开来。

4 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

5 retaliatory   

adj.报复的

参考例句：

• The process can take years before the WTO approves retaliatory action. 在WTO通过此行动之前，这个程序恐怕要等上一阵子了。 来自互联网
• Retaliatory tariffs on China are tantamount to taxing ourselves as a punishment. 将惩罚性关税强加于中国相当于对我们自己实施课税惩罚。 来自互联网

6 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

7 aluminium   

n.铝 (=aluminum)

参考例句：

• Aluminium looks heavy but actually it is very light.铝看起来很重，实际上却很轻。
• If necessary, we can use aluminium instead of steel.如果必要，我们可用铝代钢。

8 jitters   

n.pl.紧张(通常前面要有the)

参考例句：

• I always get the jitters before exams. 我考试前总是很紧张。
• The whole city had the jitters from the bombing. 全城居民都为轰炸而心神不宁。

9 escalating   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句

10 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

13 overestimates   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• These overestimates counterbalanced the uncertain risk of radiation releases after sealing. 这些过高估计抵消了在密封以后放射性物泄漏所产生的未知危害。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Never underestimate a man who overestimates himself. 切勿低估一个过高估计他自己的人。

14 harass   

vt.使烦恼，折磨，骚扰

参考例句：

• Our mission is to harass the landing of the main Japaness expeditionary force.我们的任务是骚乱日本远征军主力的登陆。
• They received the order to harass the enemy's rear.他们接到骚扰敌人后方的命令。

15 inflict   

vt.(on)把…强加给，使遭受，使承担

参考例句：

• Don't inflict your ideas on me.不要把你的想法强加于我。
• Don't inflict damage on any person.不要伤害任何人。

16 folly   

n.愚笨，愚蠢，蠢事，蠢行，傻话

参考例句：

• Learn wisdom by the folly of others.从别人的愚蠢行动中学到智慧。
• Events proved the folly of such calculations.事情的进展证明了这种估计是愚蠢的。

17 dictates   

n.命令，规定，要求( dictate的名词复数 )v.大声讲或读( dictate的第三人称单数 )；口授；支配；摆布

参考例句：

• Convention dictates that a minister should resign in such a situation. 依照常规部长在这种情况下应该辞职。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He always follows the dictates of common sense. 他总是按常识行事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。

19 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。