2018年经济学人 朝鲜经济:下一个越南？别指望了(1)

 

As America presses North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons, it has pointed¹ to Vietnam as an example of the prosperity that awaits the isolated² state.

美国施压朝鲜要求其放弃核武器，美国举例越南，指出越南的繁荣就是朝鲜的将来。

"It can be your miracle in North Korea as well," Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, said on July 8th, on a visit to Hanoi.

“这也可以是发生在朝鲜的奇迹，” 7月8日，美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥来访河内时说道。

It is not the first time Vietnam has been held up as a model for North Korea.

这已不是第一次将越南作为朝鲜的榜样了。

Over the years, officials from the two countries have discussed lessons from Vietnam's reforms.

多年来，两国官员都在讨论越南改革中的教训。

North Korea sees Vietnam as less threatening than China and more of a peer, making it a more welcome mentor³.

相比中国，朝鲜认为越南的威胁更小，更多的是把越南当做同地位国家，这使得越南成为朝鲜更受欢迎的导师。

But North Korea's economic path is likely to be more fraught⁴.

但是朝鲜的经济道路似乎更令人担忧。

Yes, there are similarities. Like North Korea's economy today, Vietnam's used to be largely collectivised.

没错，两国之间有相似之处。和朝鲜现在的经济一样，越南也曾主要是集体化经济。

The Vietnamese Communist party's ability to retain power at the same time as freeing markets must appeal to Kim Jong Un,

越南共产党保存政权以及市场自由化的能力一定很吸引金正恩，

North Korea's dictator, who has vowed⁵ to improve his country's economy.

这名朝鲜独裁者承诺将改善本国经济。

In 1985, on the eve of Vietnam's doi moi liberalising reforms, its GDP per person was a mere⁶ 1% of America's.

1985年，越南改革自由化前夕，其人均GDP仅为美国人均GDP的1%。

In 2015 North Korea was in an identical position relative to America,

UN数据（根据朝鲜公布少量数据的粗略评估）显示，

according to UN figures (rough estimates, since North Korea publishes few statistics).

2015年的朝鲜相较于美国也处于相同的位子。

Diplomatically, the comparison also makes sense.

从外交上来讲，这样的比较也是有道理的。

Vietnam shows that a country can go quite quickly from being a sworn enemy of America to a close trading partner.

越南的经历表明一个国家可以从美国不共戴天的敌人迅速成为其亲密的贸易伙伴。

Vietnam's normalisation of relations came in 1995, just two decades after the two countries ended their war.

越南的外交关系正常化出现于1995年—两国结束彼此战争仅20年后。

America is now the biggest destination for Vietnamese exports.

现在美国已经是越南出口的最大目的地。

The shift could be faster for North Korea: its propagandists may have described America as its arch-enemy until recently,

这种转变对于朝鲜而言可以更快：直到最近，朝鲜的宣传者或许将美国描述成其主要敌人，

but it has been more than six decades since they fought.

但是自两国战争以来已经有六十多年了。

1 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

2 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

3 mentor   

n.指导者，良师益友；v.指导

参考例句：

• He fed on the great ideas of his mentor.他以他导师的伟大思想为支撑。
• He had mentored scores of younger doctors.他指导过许多更年轻的医生。

4 fraught   

adj.充满…的，伴有(危险等)的；忧虑的

参考例句：

• The coming months will be fraught with fateful decisions.未来数月将充满重大的决定。
• There's no need to look so fraught!用不着那么愁眉苦脸的！

5 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。

6 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。