2019年经济学人 人口即命运? (2)

 

Leaning against this force, however, is migration¹. Right now, the richest places are not the most populous².

但扭转这股力量的因素是移民。现在，最富有的地方并非那些人口众多的国家。

Should it become relatively³ easy to migrate, people will move from countries that are populous but poor to others that are rich.

如果移民变得相对容易，人们将从人口众多但却贫困的国家迁至富裕的国家。

As migration swells⁴ the population of rich places, their long-run dominance is assured because of the link between population size and innovation.

随着移民涌入富裕国家，由于人口规模和创新之间的关系，他们的长期优势得到了保证。

But if there is very little migration, then the populous but poor countries will out-innovate the small but rich ones,

但如果移民很少，那么人口众多但贫穷的国家将在创新方面超过那些人口较少但却富裕的国家，

and make their way up the income league table. The process is not quick; the authors reckon that convergence takes about 400 years.

并让他们爬上收入排行榜。这个过程并不快；作者们认为这种趋同需要约400年。

In practice, rich places tend not to allow much migration from poor ones.

实际上，富裕国家不会允许过多贫困国家的移民。

That could change, but assuming that it does not, the model delivers a striking forecast: half a millennium⁵ from now,

这一点可能会改变，但假设其不改变，那么这一模型传递出了一个惊人的预测：自现在起半个世纪后，

Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will have become great engines of productivity.

亚洲和撒哈拉以南的非洲将成为巨大的生产力引擎。

Stranger things have happened. A millennium ago real output per person was significantly higher in China than in Britain.

更加奇怪的事情发生了。一千年前，中国的人均实际产出明显高于英国。

To predict that a European backwater would lead the world into the most transformative economic epoch⁶ in history would have seemed like madness.

要预测欧洲停滞不前的状态将引领世界走向历史上最具变革性的经济时代似乎很疯狂。

Over very long time horizons the world's poorest places can indeed become the world's richest, even if it does not happen often.

在很长一段时间内，世界最贫穷的国家确实可以成为世界最富有的国家，虽然这种情况不常发生。

Still, if Britain did not have the upper hand over China 1,000 years ago, it did soon after, at least in terms of real output per person.

尽管如此，如果英国没有在一千年前占得中国上风，那么在不久后也会如此，至少在人均实际产出上是如此。

By 1400 incomes in Britain were meaningfully larger than in China (and higher still in the Netherlands and Italy),

到1400年，英国收入明显大于中国（且仍比荷兰和意大利高），

according to work by Stephen Broadberry of Oxford⁷ University,

牛津大学的斯蒂芬·布劳德伯利

Hanhui Guan of Peking University and David Daokui Li of Tsinghua University.

北京大学的管汉晖以及清华大学的李稻葵的研究说如是。

By 1700 the diverging⁸ trajectories⁹ of China and north-west Europe were clear

到1700年，中国和欧洲西北部的分叉轨迹很明显

(though it was anything but obvious just how much further apart they would become).

（虽然其只是表明两者将会相隔多远）。

In other words, population over the past millennium has not been destiny.

换言之，在过去一千年中，人口并不是命运。

If China's and India's masses did not raise them to prosperity during the past 600 years, what reason is there to believe the future will be different?

如果在过去600年里，中国和印度的人口并没有带领两国走向繁荣，那还有什么理由相信未来会有所不同呢？

1 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

2 populous   

adj.人口稠密的，人口众多的

参考例句：

• London is the most populous area of Britain.伦敦是英国人口最稠密的地区。
• China is the most populous developing country in the world.中国是世界上人口最多的发展中国家。

3 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

4 swells   

增强( swell的第三人称单数 )； 肿胀； （使）凸出； 充满（激情）

参考例句：

• The waters were heaving up in great swells. 河水正在急剧上升。
• A barrel swells in the middle. 水桶中部隆起。

5 millennium   

n.一千年，千禧年；太平盛世

参考例句：

• The whole world was counting down to the new millennium.全世界都在倒计时迎接新千年的到来。
• We waited as the clock ticked away the last few seconds of the old millennium.我们静候着时钟滴答走过千年的最后几秒钟。

6 epoch   

n.(新)时代；历元

参考例句：

• The epoch of revolution creates great figures.革命时代造就伟大的人物。
• We're at the end of the historical epoch,and at the dawn of another.我们正处在一个历史时代的末期，另一个历史时代的开端。

7 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

8 diverging   

分开( diverge的现在分词 )； 偏离； 分歧； 分道扬镳

参考例句：

• Plants had gradually evolved along diverging and converging pathways. 植物是沿着趋异和趋同两种途径逐渐演化的。
• With member-country bond yields now diverging, 'it's a fragmented set of markets. 但随着成员国债券收益率之差扩大，市场已经分割开来。

9 trajectories   

n.弹道( trajectory的名词复数 )；轨道；轨线；常角轨道

参考例句：

• To answer this question, we need to plot trajectories of principal stresses. 为了回答这个问题，我们尚须画出主应力迹线图。 来自辞典例句
• In the space program the theory is used to determine spaceship trajectories. 在空间计划中，这个理论用于确定飞船的轨道。 来自辞典例句