2019年经济学人 剑拔弩张:美国伊朗撕裂核协议(3)

 

Predictably, rather than bringing Iran’s leaders to their knees, America’s belligerence¹ has caused them to stiffen² their spines³. Even Mr Rouhani, who championed the nuclear deal, has begun to sound like a hawk⁴. Having long hoped that Europe, at least, would honour the promise of the deal, he is exasperated⁵. On the anniversary of America’s exit from the agreement, on May 8th, he said that Iran would begin stockpiling low-enriched uranium and heavy water, which would in sufficient quantities breach⁶ its terms. Without economic progress in 60 days, he said, Iran “will not consider any limit” on enrichment. All this suggests that Iran will start moving closer to being able to build a nuclear bomb.

可以预见的是，美国的好战并没有让伊朗领导人屈服，反而让他们更加强硬。就连支持核协议的鲁哈尼，其言论也像个鹰派人物。长期以来，鲁哈尼一直希望欧洲至少会信守协议的承诺，但现在他感到愤怒。5月8日是美国退出该协议的周年纪念日，他表示伊朗将开始储备低浓缩铀和重水，这将达到足够的数量违反协议条款。他说，如果60天内没有经济进展，伊朗“不会考虑任何限制”继续寻求发展。所有这一切都表明，伊朗将开始向拥有制造核弹的能力迈进。

As he walks his country towards the brink⁷, Mr Rouhani has three audiences in mind. The first is his own hardliners, who detest⁸ the nuclear deal and have been pressing him to act. He appears to have appeased⁹ them, for now. On May 7th the front page of an ultraconservative newspaper declared: “Iran lighting¹⁰ match to set fire to the JCPOA.” He is also trying to get European companies to break with America. He will not succeed. Despite European Union attempts to design mechanisms¹¹ that allow European businesses to skirt American sanctions, most of them have decided¹² that the American market is too valuable.

在他带领国家走向崩溃之际，鲁哈尼想到了三个听众。第一个是他的强硬派，他们憎恨核协议，一直在敦促他采取行动。目前看来，他似乎已经安抚了他们。5月7日，一家极端保守主义报纸的头版宣称:“伊朗点燃了火柴，引起了核协议的火。” 鲁哈尼还试图让欧洲公司与美国决裂。他不会成功的。尽管欧盟试图设计一种机制，让欧洲企业绕开美国的制裁，但大多数企业都认为美国市场太有价值了。

Iran’s most important audience is America, with which it seems to be playing an old game. Iranian leaders have long seen the nuclear programme as their best bargaining chip with the West. Though they have claimed that it is peaceful, un inspectors¹³ have found enough evidence to suggest otherwise. The technology is the same whether power or a weapon is the ultimate goal. Iran’s centrifuges can produce a bomb faster than sanctions can topple the regime, goes the logic¹⁴ of hardliners. But they are wielding¹⁵ a double-edged sword. The threat of obtaining a nuclear weapon is useless if it does not seem credible¹⁶. And if it is credible, it risks provoking military action by America or Israel.

伊朗最重要的听众是美国，他们似乎在玩一场老游戏。长期以来，伊朗领导人一直将核计划视为他们与西方讨价还价的最佳筹码。尽管他们声称这是和平的，但联合国核查人员已经发现了足够的证据表明事实并非如此。无论最终的目标是权力还是武器，技术都是一样的。强硬派的逻辑是，伊朗的离心机制造核弹的速度比制裁推翻政权的速度还要快。但他们正在挥舞一把双刃剑。如果核武器的威胁看上去不可信，那么它就毫无用处。如果这是可信的，就有可能引发美国或以色列的军事行动。

1 belligerence   

n.交战，好战性，斗争性

参考例句：

• He could be accused of passion,but never belligerence.可以说他很冲动，但不能说他爱挑事。
• He was almost back to his belligerent mood of twelve months ago.他故态复萌，几乎又像一年前那样咄咄逼人了。

2 stiffen   

v.(使)硬，(使)变挺，(使)变僵硬

参考例句：

• The blood supply to the skin is reduced when muscles stiffen.当肌肉变得僵硬时，皮肤的供血量就减少了。
• I was breathing hard,and my legs were beginning to stiffen.这时我却气吁喘喘地开始感到脚有点僵硬。

3 spines   

n.脊柱( spine的名词复数 )；脊椎；（动植物的）刺；书脊

参考例句：

• Porcupines use their spines to protect themselves. 豪猪用身上的刺毛来自卫。
• The cactus has spines. 仙人掌有刺。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

4 hawk   

n.鹰，骗子；鹰派成员

参考例句：

• The hawk swooped down on the rabbit and killed it.鹰猛地朝兔子扑下来,并把它杀死。
• The hawk snatched the chicken and flew away.老鹰叼了小鸡就飞走了。

5 exasperated   

adj.恼怒的

参考例句：

• We were exasperated at his ill behaviour. 我们对他的恶劣行为感到非常恼怒。
• Constant interruption of his work exasperated him. 对他工作不断的干扰使他恼怒。

6 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

7 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

8 detest   

vt.痛恨，憎恶

参考例句：

• I detest people who tell lies.我恨说谎的人。
• The workers detest his overbearing manner.工人们很讨厌他那盛气凌人的态度。

9 appeased   

安抚，抚慰( appease的过去式和过去分词 )； 绥靖（满足另一国的要求以避免战争）

参考例句：

• His hunger could only be appeased by his wife. 他的欲望只有他的妻子能满足。
• They are the more readily appeased. 他们比较容易和解。

10 lighting   

n.照明，光线的明暗，舞台灯光

参考例句：

• The gas lamp gradually lost ground to electric lighting.煤气灯逐渐为电灯所代替。
• The lighting in that restaurant is soft and romantic.那个餐馆照明柔和而且浪漫。

11 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

13 inspectors   

n.检查员( inspector的名词复数 )；（英国公共汽车或火车上的）查票员；（警察）巡官；检阅官

参考例句：

• They got into the school in the guise of inspectors. 他们假装成视察员进了学校。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Inspectors checked that there was adequate ventilation. 检查员已检查过，通风良好。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

15 wielding   

手持着使用（武器、工具等）( wield的现在分词 )； 具有； 运用（权力）； 施加（影响）

参考例句：

• The rebels were wielding sticks of dynamite. 叛乱分子舞动着棒状炸药。
• He is wielding a knife. 他在挥舞着一把刀。

16 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？