2021年经济学人 住房投资回报率到底高不高?(1)

University challenge

大学挑战

The returns on housing investment are not what they are cracked up to be

住房投资的回报并不是他们所吹嘘的那样

Brits, it is said, have a penchant¹ for nostalgia². So take a trip down memory lane to the autumn of 1997, a happier time. The British economy appeared to be gathering³ speed. The Bank of England raised interest rates to 7.25%. But how resilient was the consumer? A drop in retail⁴ sales could be put down to Princess Diana's funeral. The bigger puzzle was the property market. House-price in-flation on the Halifax measure was in the mid-single digits⁵. The Nationwide index had it rising into the teens. It was unclear which of these gauges⁶ was right.

据说英国人对怀旧情有独钟。所以，沿着记忆的小路回到1997年的秋天，那是一段更加快乐的时光。英国的经济似乎正在加速。英格兰银行将利率提高到了7.25%，但消费者的适应能力有多强？零售销售额的下降可能要归咎于戴安娜王妃的葬礼。更大的谜题是房地产市场。按照哈利法克斯的衡量标准，房价涨幅在个位数中间。全国范围内的指数已经涨至百分之十几，目前还不清楚哪一种衡量方法是正确的。

Trying to work out whetherthe economy is strong or very strong is a nice problem to have. But this episode from the 1990s highlights something else. Measuring house prices is trickier⁷ than measuring the price of shares or a basket of consumer goods. Getting a good handle on total returns is harder still. Long run ground-level data on rental⁸ income and maintenance costs are rather scarce.

想要弄清楚经济是强劲还是非常强劲是一个很好的问题，但这段发生在20世纪90年代的插曲还凸显了另一个问题：衡量房价要比衡量股价或一篮子消费品的价格更加棘手，而想要很好地搞清总回报更是难上加难，因为有关租金收入和维修费用的长期现实数据少得可怜。

A new paper deals with these difficulties by drawing on the archives of the endowment funds of four Oxbridge colleges, which for centuries have been big investors⁹ in property. Two of them (Trinity College, Cambridge, and Christ Church, Oxford) were founded by Henry VIII, who conferred a portfolio¹⁰ of land on both. The study finds that after-cost returns to housing were considerably¹¹ lowerin the 20th century than previously¹² thought. Property is a farless attractive investment than you might expect.

一篇新论文利用了牛津和剑桥四所学院捐赠基金的档案资料解决了这些难题。几百年来，这四所学院一直是房地产的大投资者。其中两所学院(剑桥的三一学院和牛津的基督教堂)是亨利八世建立的，他给这两所学院都授予了土地。研究发现，在20世纪，住房的成本后回报率远低于之前的预期。房地产是一项远没有你想象的那么有吸引力的投资。

Only a small fraction of houses change hands each year. They may not be representative of the overall stock, and thus of changes in housing wealth. The average sales price might rise from one period to the next simply because more houses that are bigger, of better quality or in nicer locations are being bought and sold this yearthan last year. This is why most closely watched gauges, including the Halifax and Nationwide indices, adjust transactions for characteristics such as the number of bedrooms. Still, some quality improvements (or degradations) will evade¹³ even the most careful statistician.

每年只有一小部分房屋易手。它们可能不能代表整体存量，也代表不了房产价值的变化。平均售价可能会从一个时期上升到下一个时期，仅仅是因为今年比去年有更多更大、质量更好或位置更好的房屋被买卖。这就是为什么最受关注的指标，包括哈利法克斯指数和全国指数，会根据卧室数量等特征来调整交易。然而，即使是最细心的统计学家也无法发现一些质量上的改善(或下降)。

1 penchant   

n.爱好，嗜好；（强烈的）倾向

参考例句：

• She has a penchant for Indian food.她爱吃印度食物。
• He had a penchant for playing jokes on people.他喜欢拿人开玩笑。

2 nostalgia   

n.怀乡病，留恋过去，怀旧

参考例句：

• He might be influenced by nostalgia for his happy youth.也许是对年轻时幸福时光的怀恋影响了他。
• I was filled with nostalgia by hearing my favourite old song.我听到这首喜爱的旧歌，心中充满了怀旧之情。

3 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

4 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

5 digits   

n.数字( digit的名词复数 )；手指，足趾

参考例句：

• The number 1000 contains four digits. 1000是四位数。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The number 410 contains three digits. 数字 410 中包括三个数目字。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

6 gauges   

n.规格( gauge的名词复数 )；厚度；宽度；标准尺寸v.（用仪器）测量( gauge的第三人称单数 )；估计；计量；划分

参考例句：

• A thermometer gauges the temperature. 温度计可测量温度。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The fuel gauges dropped swiftly. 燃料表指针迅速下降。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 trickier   

adj.狡猾的( tricky的比较级 )；（形势、工作等）复杂的；机警的；微妙的

参考例句：

• This is the general rule, but some cases are trickier than others. 以上是一般规则，但某些案例会比别的案例更为棘手。 来自互联网
• The lower the numbers go, the trickier the problems get. 武器的数量越低，问题就越复杂。 来自互联网

8 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

11 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

12 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

13 evade   

vt.逃避，回避；避开，躲避

参考例句：

• He tried to evade the embarrassing question.他企图回避这令人难堪的问题。
• You are in charge of the job.How could you evade the issue?你是负责人，你怎么能对这个问题不置可否？