2021年经济学人 人工智能"投身"情报界,让你无处遁形(2)

Yet what is possible in public health is not always so easy in national security. Western intelligence agencies must contend with laws governing how private data may be gathered and used. In its paper, GCHQ says that it will be mindful of systemic bias¹, such as whether voice-recognition software is more effective with some groups than others, and transparent² about margins³ of error and uncertainty⁴ in its algorithms. American spies say, more vaguely⁵, that they will respect "human dignity, rights, and freedoms". These differences may need to be ironed out. One suggestion made by a recent task-force of former American spooks in a report published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington was that the "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance—America, Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand—create a shared cloud server on which to store data.

然而，在公共卫生领域可行的事情在国家安全领域并不总是那么容易做到。西方情报机构必须应对有关如何收集和使用私人数据的法律。GCHQ在其论文中表示，它会注意系统偏见，比如语音识别软件对某些群体是否比其他群体更有效，以及算法的误差和不确定性的界限是否透明。美国间谍含糊表示他们将尊重“人的尊严、权利和自由”。这些分歧可能需要解决。在华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)最近发布的一份报告中，前美国特工小组提出了一个建议：“五眼”情报联盟——美国、澳大利亚、英国、加拿大和新西兰——可以创建一个用于存储数据的共享云服务器。

In any case, the constraints⁶ facing AI in intelligence are as much practical as ethical⁷. Machine learning is good at spotting patterns—such as distinctive⁸ patterns of mobile-phone use—but poor at predicting individual behaviour. That is especially true when data are scarce, as in counterterrorism. Predictive-policing models can crunch⁹ data from thousands of burglaries each year. Terrorist attacks are much rarer, and therefore harder to learn from.

无论如何，人工智能在智能领域面临的限制既是现实的，也是道德的。机器学习擅长识别模式——比如手机使用的独特模式——但在预测个人行为方面却很差。在数据匮乏的情况下尤其如此，比如在反恐行动中。预测警务模型可以处理每年数千起盗窃案的数据。恐怖袭击要罕见得多，因此也更难从中吸取教训。

That rarity creates another problem, familiar to medics pondering mass-screening programmes for rare diseases. Any predictive model will generate false positives, in which innocent people are flagged for investigation¹⁰. Careful design can drive the false-positive rate down. But because the "base rate" is lower still—there are, mercifully, very few terrorists—even a well-designed system risks sending large numbers of spies off on wild-goose chases.

这种罕见带来了另一个问题，正在考虑对罕见疾病进行大规模筛查的医生对这个问题很熟悉。任何预测模型都会出现误报，无辜的人被标记为调查对象。精心的设计可以降低误报率。但是由于“基本比率”仍然较低——幸运的是，恐怖分子很少——即使是一个设计良好的系统也有可能使大量间谍在徒劳的追捕中丧命。

And those data that do exist may not be suitable. Data from drone cameras, reconnaissance satellite and intercepted¹¹ phone calls, for instance, are not currently formatted¹² or labelled in ways that are useful for machine learning. Fixing that is a "tedious, time-consuming, and still primarily human task exacerbated¹³ by differing labelling standards across and even within agencies", notes the CSIS report. That may not be quite the sort of work that would-be spies signed up for.

而那些确实存在的数据可能并不合适。例如，来自无人机摄像头、侦察卫星和截获的电话的数据，目前尚未格式化或标记为有利于机器学习的方式。CSIS的报告指出，解决这一问题是“一项乏味、耗时且主要还是人工的任务，各机构甚至各机构内部不同的标签化标准加剧了这一问题”。这可能不是那些想成为间谍的人愿意做的工作。

1 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。

2 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

3 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 vaguely   

adv.含糊地，暖昧地

参考例句：

• He had talked vaguely of going to work abroad.他含糊其词地说了到国外工作的事。
• He looked vaguely before him with unseeing eyes.他迷迷糊糊的望着前面，对一切都视而不见。

6 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

7 ethical   

adj.伦理的，道德的，合乎道德的

参考例句：

• It is necessary to get the youth to have a high ethical concept.必须使青年具有高度的道德观念。
• It was a debate which aroused fervent ethical arguments.那是一场引发强烈的伦理道德争论的辩论。

8 distinctive   

adj.特别的，有特色的，与众不同的

参考例句：

• She has a very distinctive way of walking.她走路的样子与别人很不相同。
• This bird has several distinctive features.这个鸟具有几种突出的特征。

9 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

10 investigation   

n.调查，调查研究

参考例句：

• In an investigation,a new fact became known, which told against him.在调查中新发现了一件对他不利的事实。
• He drew the conclusion by building on his own investigation.他根据自己的调查研究作出结论。

11 intercepted   

拦截( intercept的过去式和过去分词 )； 截住； 截击； 拦阻

参考例句：

• Reporters intercepted him as he tried to leave the hotel. 他正要离开旅馆，记者们把他拦截住了。
• Reporters intercepted him as he tried to leave by the rear entrance. 他想从后门溜走，记者把他截住了。

12 formatted   

adj. 格式化的 动词format的过去式和过去分词形式

参考例句：

• Recovers Data even if DRIVE NOT FORMATTED message is displayed. 复苏的数据，即使驱动器未格式化的讯息显示。
• Cold-blood vertebrate has formatted multi-cold adaptation artifice in the various habitation environment. 冷血脊椎动物在多种多样栖息环境中形成多种耐寒策略。

13 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》