Uncertainty in the financial markets centers on inflation

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Uncertainty¹ in the financial markets centers on inflation

Transcript²

The pandemic was marked by a surge in all kinds of investments — from stocks to Bitcoin. Now surging inflation is leading to steep falls across the markets.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

You know, yesterday, I glanced at the stock market news and instantly saw that it was one of those days when it's better not to look. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 1,000 points, and now I wake up to find the market gained it all back. What happened while I wasn't looking? NPR's David Gura keeps an unflinching eye on the markets and joins us now. David, good morning.

DAVID GURA, BYLINE³: Unflinching. Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: I do not understand what rationally could have changed about the economy between noon and 4 p.m. I assume something happened in the trading there that we don't really grasp at this moment. But let's start with the facts we do know. How did yesterday unfold?

GURA: Just an incredibly volatile⁴ moment on Wall Street. Monday was just remarkable⁵. The kind of swing that we saw shows how much uncertainty there is on Wall Street right now, Steve, most of which centers on inflation, which has been with us for a while. But investors⁶ are waking up to two new realities. The first is inflation is higher than it's been in four decades. Second thing, and perhaps most importantly, is the Federal Reserve plans to fight it more aggressively. And what that means is the Fed is going to raise interest rates, but it has to achieve a very tricky⁷ balance here. The central bank needs to raise rates just enough to control inflation without bringing the whole economy to a halt. And, Steve, the Fed starts a two-day meeting today, and Wall Street is waiting anxiously for an update.

INSKEEP: Well, the Fed has been trying in recent years to remove almost all suspense⁸ from its actions and signal where it's going. So what is suspenseful⁹ now?

GURA: Yeah. I mean, the prospect¹⁰ of higher rates is pretty unsettling for markets. The Fed has had interest rates near zero for many years now. And as it moves away from that, Wall Street's nervous because low interest rates have been really good for stocks. They've been on a tear even during the pandemic, and many Americans had extra cash. They weren't traveling. They weren't going out. They - the stimulus¹¹ payments, as well. So they put some of that money into the market. And they weren't just trading stocks. First-time investors bought bitcoin, which surged along with other cryptocurrencies. There was this signal moment when an NFT, a digital work of art by the artist Beeple, sold at Christie's for $69.3 million dollars. Higher inflation has changed the landscape, however, and the drops that we've seen in recent days, I think, could portend¹² more market misery¹³.

INSKEEP: Do some of the analysts¹⁴ you talk with fear that something is going seriously, truly, grandly wrong?

GURA: Yeah, some do. There are really two schools of thought on this. One camp believes we're seeing bubbles burst like we did in the early 2000s. And when there is a bubble, people make risky¹⁵, speculative¹⁶ bets and things get too expensive. 2008 financial crisis was sparked in part by a boom in housing that led to all kinds of risky investments in subprime mortgages.

Now legendary¹⁷ fund manager Jeremy Grantham says this is the late stage of a bubble. And he writes in a new note, it will very probably end badly. But there are others who disagree. Amanda Agati is one of them. She's the chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services, and she says what we've been seeing lately is noise.

AMANDA AGATI: So it's definitely a little bit uncomfortable here, but it's definitely a part of a natural, healthy, functioning market environment.

GURA: You know, corrections or market resets¹⁸ happen. They can be painful, and there has been pain, for sure. Bitcoin, for example, is now trading at about half of what it was going for at its peak. And that peak, Steve, was just a few months ago in November.

INSKEEP: Wow. David, got to be honest, I still think, as you're watching the market, that the best reaction is what I had yesterday - just look away, wait a little while, let things smooth out over time. But suppose people are watching for what happens next. What should they watch for?

GURA: Yeah. Wall Street is paying very close attention to every whisper, really, from Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow policymakers. Powell scheduled to speak with reporters on Wednesday when that two-day meeting wraps up. You know, consensus¹⁹ is the Federal Reserve will raise rates four times this year starting in March. But the central bank has said all along it'll respond to changing economic conditions. So at this point, it's really anyone's guess. And Wall Street doesn't like that kind of uncertainty, Steve, which means we could see some more of the turbulence²⁰ that we saw on Monday.

INSKEEP: NPR's David Gura. Thanks so much.

GURA: Thank you.

1 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

5 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

8 suspense   

n.（对可能发生的事）紧张感，担心，挂虑

参考例句：

• The suspense was unbearable.这样提心吊胆的状况实在叫人受不了。
• The director used ingenious devices to keep the audience in suspense.导演用巧妙手法引起观众的悬念。

9 suspenseful   

adj.悬疑的，令人紧张的

参考例句：

• If his experiences then had been carefully recorded, it would undoubtedly have made a suspenseful and moving book. 若是把他所经历的事实记录下来，那就是一部充满着大智大勇，惊心动魄的小说。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Lily is an atmospheric and suspenseful tale of love, loss and obsession. 这是一个关于爱情、失落与迷恋的故事，充满情调与悬疑色彩。 来自互联网

10 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

11 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

12 portend   

v.预兆，预示；给…以警告

参考例句：

• Black clouds portend a storm.乌云为暴风雨的前兆。
• What do these strange events portend?这些奇怪的事件预示着什么？

13 misery   

n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦

参考例句：

• Business depression usually causes misery among the working class.商业不景气常使工薪阶层受苦。
• He has rescued me from the mire of misery.他把我从苦海里救了出来。

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

16 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

17 legendary   

adj.传奇（中）的，闻名遐迩的；n.传奇（文学）

参考例句：

• Legendary stories are passed down from parents to children.传奇故事是由父母传给孩子们的。
• Odysseus was a legendary Greek hero.奥狄修斯是传说中的希腊英雄。

18 resets   

v.重新安放或安置( reset的第三人称单数 )；重拨（测量仪器指针）；为（考试、测试等）出一套新题；重新安置，将…恢复原位

参考例句：

• Regenerating the map resets the statistics in the Info screen. 重新生成地图时，信息窗口的统计数据会重置。 来自互联网
• This resets CSS values that browsers tend to set for you. 用于重置页面，对没有指定css属性的页面元素指定缺省值。 来自互联网

19 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

20 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。