Ex-Ukrainian defense official doesn't expect Russia to fully invade Ukraine

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Ex-Ukrainian defense¹ official doesn't expect Russia to fully² invade Ukraine

Transcript³

The former defense minister predicts Russia will wage hybrid⁴ warfare⁵, block Ukrainian naval⁶ movements in the Black and Azov seas and establish a permanent military presence in Belarus.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is keeping the world guessing about whether, where and when he intends to send in the troops he's poised⁷ to invade Ukraine. President Biden sounds like he's planning for the worst.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: If he were to move in with all those forces, it would be the largest invasion since World War II. It would change the world.

MARTIN: So how are Ukrainians thinking about this potential crisis? NPR's Rob Schmitz was just in Kyiv, Ukraine, and joins us now.

Hey, Rob.

ROB SCHMITZ, BYLINE⁸: Good morning.

MARTIN: So you talked with a former top Ukrainian official about how he sees this current threat. Who is he? What'd he say?

SCHMITZ: Yeah. His name is Andrij Zagorodniuk, and he was defense minister under President Zelenskyy from 2019 to 2020. He has a civilian⁹ background. And he heads a defense strategy think tank. He does not expect the Russians to mount a full-scale invasion and occupation of Ukraine with the force they currently have amassed¹⁰ on Ukraine's borders, which he estimates at around 127,000 troops.

Here's what he told me.

ANDRIJ ZAGORODNIUK: A hundred and twenty-seven thousand is not even close to what you need to occupy Ukraine or even half of Ukraine. So we need, like, at least 300,000, perhaps even more. Potentially, we may see the increase of troops, but we don't see this at the moment.

SCHMITZ: Another thing Zagorodniuk told me he's not seeing yet is enough Russian mobile hospital units and medical personnel near the borders to indicate that a Russian invasion is imminent¹¹.

MARTIN: OK. But I assume he doesn't think Russia's just not going to do anything. I mean, what does he think Russia's most likely move is?

SCHMITZ: So he lays out a bunch of what he calls likely scenarios¹². And the first one is something that's already happening - Russian so-called hybrid warfare. And these are things like cyberattacks, which we've already seen on Ukraine's government. There are also efforts to weaken or distract police and military. Last Friday, dozens of schools in Kyiv sent students home because of a series of bomb threats that were suspected to be a Russian hybrid attack. He also said it was highly likely that Russia would escalate¹³ tensions in Ukraine's eastern border region, where Ukrainian troops have been fighting Russian-backed insurgents¹⁴ for eight years.

MARTIN: Does he foresee any major military action on a new front, something besides the east?

SCHMITZ: Well, he also expects the Russian Navy to block Ukrainian access to the Black and Azov Seas along Ukraine's southern coast, which would disrupt important shipping¹⁵ routes to and from the country. The Russian Navy is much bigger than the Ukrainian Navy, and it's got a base in Crimea.

MARTIN: I've also been seeing all these reports, though, Rob, about Russia sending troops to Belarus...

SCHMITZ: Right.

MARTIN: ...North of Ukraine. They're planning joint¹⁶ exercises with the Belarusian Army next month. Did the former defense minister talk about the threat there at all?

SCHMITZ: Yeah. He thinks it's likely that after those exercises are finished, Russian armed forces will, instead of heading back home, stay in position along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. That's a big concern for Ukraine because that border is around a hundred miles away from the capital of Kyiv. Zagorodniuk says if Putin does that and if he then sends tens of thousands of more troops to that region, that would obviously be something to be very worried about.

MARTIN: Is he thinking - what's - about timing¹⁷? I mean, what's the most realistic timeline for something like this to happen?

SCHMITZ: Well, he doesn't think any kind of military attack or invasion is likely before the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics so as not to steal the global spotlight¹⁸ from Russia's ally China. The Games run from February 4 through the 20. All in all, though, Zagorodniuk says a large-scale invasion of Ukraine would be a very big gamble for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In Europe, such a large occupation hasn't taken place since World War II. And there would likely be tens of thousands of casualties, very high cost to occupy and administer the territory. And he predicts a massive resistance movement because an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians would not be willing to live under Russian rule. And if there's anything that I learned in my reporting trip this time to Kyiv, it's that Ukrainians are more than prepared to fight to defend their homeland.

MARTIN: All right. NPR's Rob Schmitz based in Berlin, but he just got back from a reporting trip to Kyiv. Thank you so much.

SCHMITZ: Thank you.

1 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

2 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

3 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

4 hybrid   

n.(动，植）杂种，混合物

参考例句：

• That is a hybrid perpetual rose.那是一株杂交的四季开花的蔷薇。
• The hybrid was tall,handsome,and intelligent.那混血儿高大、英俊、又聪明。

5 warfare   

n.战争(状态)；斗争；冲突

参考例句：

• He addressed the audience on the subject of atomic warfare.他向听众演讲有关原子战争的问题。
• Their struggle consists mainly in peasant guerrilla warfare.他们的斗争主要是农民游击战。

6 naval   

adj.海军的，军舰的，船的

参考例句：

• He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
• The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。

7 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

8 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

9 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

10 amassed   

v.积累，积聚( amass的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He amassed a fortune from silver mining. 他靠开采银矿积累了一笔财富。
• They have amassed a fortune in just a few years. 他们在几年的时间里就聚集了一笔财富。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

12 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

13 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

14 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

15 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

16 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

17 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

18 spotlight   

n.公众注意的中心，聚光灯，探照灯，视听，注意，醒目

参考例句：

• This week the spotlight is on the world of fashion.本周引人瞩目的是时装界。
• The spotlight followed her round the stage.聚光灯的光圈随着她在舞台上转。