美国国家公共电台 NPR--How likely is a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine?

How likely is a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine?

Transcript¹

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has raised the specter of using a nuclear weapon in his war with Ukraine. Putin has done this before, though he was more explicit² in a speech last Friday, and he says he's not bluffing³.

The U.S., he said, set a "precedent⁴" when it dropped two atomic bombs on Japan in 1945 at the end of World War II. So what is the likelihood that the Russian leader might use of such weapons?

"We have a 77-year tradition, some call it a taboo⁵, of non-use of nuclear weapons. Russia is threatening that," said Matthew Bunn a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. He's spent his career studying nuclear weapons, including a stint⁶ in the 1990s as a White House adviser⁷ when President Bill Clinton was in office. "We need to do everything we can to maintain that tradition of not using nuclear weapons in combat."

Here are a number of key questions surrounding Russia possible use of nuclear weapons.

Q. Why is Vladimir Putin raising the possibility of a nuclear attack now?

Ukraine's military keeps regaining⁸ ground in the east and the south of the country, which Russia had seized earlier in the war. With these battlefield setbacks, Putin is facing pressure from the pro-war camp in Russia. Many of these hardliners say Russia needs to unleash⁹ the full force of its military in Ukraine.

This has likely contributed to Putin's recent escalation¹⁰, which includes the mobilization of 300,000 additional troops, annexing¹¹ Ukrainian territory, and the nuclear saber rattling¹².

Q. So is Putin just trying to appease¹³ some of his critics, or might he actually use a nuclear weapon?

The Russian leader is probably the only person who can answer this question with authority. Most nuclear experts say the likelihood of Russia actually using a nuclear weapon is still relatively¹⁴ low, but given Putin's current predicament, and his public statements, the threat is seen as increasing.

Bunn said his best estimate is that there's a 10 percent to 20 percent likelihood that Russia might use a nuke. While that's a pretty low probability for most things in life, when it comes to nuclear weapons, it is "intolerably high," Bunn said.

Q. How could a nuclear strike help Russia on the battlefield?

It's not clear that such an attack would give Russia a major military boost.

Russia has an estimated 2,000 small, low-yield, tactical nuclear weapons that could be used against specific targets — like a concentration of troops, a military base, perhaps a port or an air field.

However, Bunn notes that "one problem with using nuclear weapons, especially if you detonate them on the ground where they suck up a bunch of dirt and rock into the air, is the place where you use them ends up being uninhabitable because radioactive fallout."

Russia can do just as much damage, if not more, with a relentless¹⁵ barrage¹⁶ of conventional weapons. The Russian military has already devastated¹⁷ a number of Ukrainian cities with conventional firepower.

Bunn said if Russia uses a nuclear weapons, the intention may be mainly to intimidate¹⁸ Ukraine and the West.

"I think the biggest factor in the use of nuclear weapons is the fear they provoke," Bunn said. "Putin might hope that he could coerce¹⁹ the Ukrainians into accepting his terms, that he could coerce the West into backing off from supporting Ukraine."

Q. How are Ukraine and the U.S. reacting at this point?

A senior U.S. defense²⁰ official told reporters Monday that the the U.S. is keeping close watch, and hasn't seen any Russian moves that would compel the U.S. to change its own nuclear posture²¹.

Ukraine hasn't said much about Putin's most recent threat, but the country has a first-hand understanding of nuclear dangers following the 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which ultimately claimed thousands of lives.

While Ukraine has multiple nuclear power plants for civilian²² use, the country does not have nuclear weapons. Ukraine inherited a large nuclear arsenal²³ when the Soviet²⁴ Union broke up in 1991. But Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons under a 1994 agreement under which Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's borders.

Q. What might the U.S. do if Russia actually set off a nuclear weapon?

President Biden's administration has warned of a powerful, though unspecified U.S. response. The U.S. president has sought to avoid a direct military confrontation²⁵ with Russia, but a Russian nuclear strike could change the calculus²⁶.

According to Bunn, such an attack could lead the U.S. to hit Russian military targets, though he thinks it unlikely the U.S. would respond with nuclear weapons.

"People have talked about things like conventional attacks on Russian forces in Ukraine," he said. "Things that would be extremely unpleasant for the Russians and make the cost of using nuclear weapons higher than the plausible²⁷ benefits."

Q. Beyond the battlefield, what kind of international response could Russia expect?

Russia is so far coping with international sanctions. But punitive²⁸ measures would surely increase in the wake of a nuclear attack, and Russia's remaining partners might seek to distance themselves from Moscow.

The response of two countries, China and India, would be particularly important. China's ties with Russia were expanding, but Beijing is growing uncomfortable with the trajectory²⁹ of the war. India has officially remained neutral and has been buying more Russian oil.

A Russian nuclear strike would likely lead both countries to reassess their current relationship with Moscow.

"Russia would really find itself completely isolated³⁰ on the world stage," Bunn said.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 explicit   

adj.详述的，明确的；坦率的；显然的

参考例句：

• She was quite explicit about why she left.她对自己离去的原因直言不讳。
• He avoids the explicit answer to us.他避免给我们明确的回答。

3 bluffing   

n. 威吓，唬人 动词bluff的现在分词形式

参考例句：

• I don't think he'll shoot—I think he's just bluffing. 我认为他不会开枪—我想他不过是在吓唬人。
• He says he'll win the race, but he's only bluffing. 他说他会赢得这场比赛，事实上只是在吹牛。

4 precedent   

n.先例，前例；惯例；adj.在前的，在先的

参考例句：

• Is there a precedent for what you want me to do?你要我做的事有前例可援吗？
• This is a wonderful achievement without precedent in Chinese history.这是中国历史上亘古未有的奇绩。

5 taboo   

n.禁忌，禁止接近，禁止使用；adj.禁忌的；v.禁忌，禁制，禁止

参考例句：

• The rude words are taboo in ordinary conversation.这些粗野的字眼在日常谈话中是禁忌的。
• Is there a taboo against sex before marriage in your society?在你们的社会里，婚前的性行为犯禁吗？

6 stint   

v.节省，限制，停止；n.舍不得化，节约，限制；连续不断的一段时间从事某件事

参考例句：

• He lavished money on his children without stint.他在孩子们身上花钱毫不吝惜。
• We hope that you will not stint your criticism.我们希望您不吝指教。

7 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

8 regaining   

复得( regain的现在分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• She was regaining consciousness now, but the fear was coming with her. 现在她正在恢发她的知觉，但是恐怖也就伴随着来了。
• She said briefly, regaining her will with a click. 她干脆地答道，又马上重新振作起精神来。

9 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

10 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

11 annexing   

并吞( annex的现在分词 )； 兼并； 强占； 并吞（国家、地区等）

参考例句：

• In addition to annexing territory, they exacted huge indemnities. 割地之外，又索去了巨大的赔款。
• He succeeded in annexing all the property of Hindley's and the Linton's. 他成功的占有了亨得利和林顿的所有财产。

12 rattling   

adj. 格格作响的, 活泼的, 很好的 adv. 极其, 很, 非常 动词rattle的现在分词

参考例句：

• This book is a rattling good read. 这是一本非常好的读物。
• At that same instant,a deafening explosion set the windows rattling. 正在这时，一声震耳欲聋的爆炸突然袭来，把窗玻璃震得当当地响。

13 appease   

v.安抚，缓和，平息，满足

参考例句：

• He tried to appease the crying child by giving him candy.他试图给那个啼哭的孩子糖果使他不哭。
• The government tried to appease discontented workers.政府试图安抚不满的工人们。

14 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

15 relentless   

adj.残酷的，不留情的，无怜悯心的

参考例句：

• The traffic noise is relentless.交通车辆的噪音一刻也不停止。
• Their training has to be relentless.他们的训练必须是无情的。

16 barrage   

n.火力网，弹幕

参考例句：

• The attack jumped off under cover of a barrage.进攻在炮火的掩护下开始了。
• The fierce artillery barrage destroyed the most part of the city in a few minutes.猛烈的炮火几分钟内便毁灭了这座城市的大部分地区。

17 devastated   

v.彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)；摧毁；毁灭；在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮adj.毁坏的；极为震惊的

参考例句：

• The bomb devastated much of the old part of the city. 这颗炸弹炸毁了旧城的一大片地方。
• His family is absolutely devastated. 他的一家感到极为震惊。

18 intimidate   

vt.恐吓，威胁

参考例句：

• You think you can intimidate people into doing what you want?你以为你可以威胁别人做任何事？
• The first strike capacity is intended mainly to intimidate adversary.第一次攻击的武力主要是用来吓阻敌方的。

19 coerce   

v.强迫，压制

参考例句：

• You can't coerce her into obedience.你不能强制她服从。
• Do you think there is any way that we can coerce them otherwise?你认为我们有什么办法强迫他们不那样吗？

20 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

21 posture   

n.姿势，姿态，心态，态度；v.作出某种姿势

参考例句：

• The government adopted an uncompromising posture on the issue of independence.政府在独立这一问题上采取了毫不妥协的态度。
• He tore off his coat and assumed a fighting posture.他脱掉上衣，摆出一副打架的架势。

22 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

23 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

24 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

25 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

26 calculus   

n.微积分；结石

参考例句：

• This is a problem where calculus won't help at all.对于这一题，微积分一点也用不上。
• After studying differential calculus you will be able to solve these mathematical problems.学了微积分之后，你们就能够解这些数学题了。

27 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

28 punitive   

adj.惩罚的，刑罚的

参考例句：

• They took punitive measures against the whole gang.他们对整帮人采取惩罚性措施。
• The punitive tariff was imposed to discourage tire imports from China.该惩罚性关税的征收是用以限制中国轮胎进口的措施。

29 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

30 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。