美国国家公共电台 NPR--Russia's latest wave of missile strikes across Ukraine reflect its strategy

Russia's latest wave of missile strikes across Ukraine reflect its strategy

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to retired² Lt. Gen. David Deptula of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace³ Studies about the new wave of Russian missile strikes on civilian⁴ targets in Ukraine.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

We're going to continue discussing Russia's escalations in Ukraine and the growing pressure on Western allies to do more to help Ukraine defend itself. With us is U.S. Air Force Lieutenant⁶ General David Deptula. Now retired from the service, he is dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Washington, D.C. Welcome to the program, General.

DAVID DEPTULA: Well, thanks, Leila. Good to be here.

FADEL: So I want to start with just how dangerous this moment is, this new phase of Russia's war in Ukraine.

DEPTULA: Well, it is dangerous, but it's not unexpected. And there are a variety of aspects to your question. But let me mention a few that I think are key. First, Putin's expectation that his invasion of Ukraine would result in its rapid collapse⁷, as everyone knows by now, proved spectacularly wrong. Almost everything about that initial Russian invasion collapsed⁸. Second, when he pulled his forces out of the north and regrouped, because of the Russian military's poor performance and a Ukrainian military motivated by Putin's existential threat, supplied with weapons and critical intelligence by the West, Russia's military really struggled...

FADEL: Right.

DEPTULA: ...Under the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Third, that counteroffensive going as well as it did shocked the Russians and became a turning point in the war. It's what caused Putin to take the step of mobilization. And as you know, that's not going well. And while the war had already turned Putin into a political pariah⁹ externally, Russia's military failures are now testing Putin's domestic strength.

FADEL: Right.

DEPTULA: Therefore, Putin's trying to find a means to garner¹⁰ support domestically by demonstrating that he's still strong, by making nuclear threats and striking with air and missile attacks across Ukraine. So his hope is that Ukraine will break under the pain of this bombardment, but he seems unable to understand the unbreakable will of the Ukrainians.

FADEL: But he's also shown no sign of backing down, that he is in this war. And so will these strikes become a feature of Russia's strategy at this point?

DEPTULA: Well, he's got some problems there because due to the intense use of his weapons to date, he's running low on munitions¹¹ stocks, not to mention the personnel that he needs to continue to feed the fight. It's important for your audience to know that Russia has lost more of its military personnel in eight months in Ukraine than it did in over a decade in Afghanistan. So, yeah, he has the potential to continue. I mean, he's not out yet. And he's going to do - as I mentioned, he's going to take actions to try to - to show that he is strong, and he's standing¹² up to those who are edging him on inside the country. But there's the reality of supplies, of munitions and aircraft to be able to do this.

FADEL: You describe a man trying to show strength and possibly be - in a desperate moment. And a desperate leader like that can be dangerous. He's made nuclear threats. And how serious do you take those? And could what the U.S. and NATO do next provoke Putin to follow through?

DEPTULA: Well, it's a great question, Leila. First, he does have to be taken seriously, but it's also important to understand that the risk of escalation⁵ is ever present, regardless of what actions the West takes to support Ukraine. Putin's already shown that he'll manufacture a pretext¹³ when his adversaries¹⁴ are too smart to give him one.

I like to remind people that during the Vietnam War, the Russians supplied North Vietnam with 100% of their fighter aircraft, all of their surface-to-air missile systems, all of their tanks, and they were even on the ground. Both Russia and the U.S. had nuclear weapons at that time, and that didn't affect the conventional conflicts, so why should it today? His nuclear saber-rattling can increase risks, but it really can't offer Russia any edge in its confrontation¹⁵. How does one create more damage than what's been created in Mariupol?

FADEL: You know, just quickly before we let you go, at this phase of the war, could the U.S. and NATO be drawn¹⁶ into doing more than providing weapons and defense¹⁷ systems?

DEPTULA: If you mean actual use of NATO and U.S. forces, I think it's important that we don't engage in that level of support. You know, I tell you what - getting weapons that matter to the Ukrainians is critical to both their survival and success.

FADEL: Retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General David Deptula, now dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Washington, D.C., thank you.

DEPTULA: You bet.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

3 aerospace   

adj.航空的，宇宙航行的

参考例句：

• The world's entire aerospace industry is feeling the chill winds of recession.全世界的航空航天工业都感受到了经济衰退的寒意。
• Edward Murphy was an aerospace engineer for the US Army.爱德华·墨菲是一名美军的航宇工程师。

4 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

5 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

6 lieutenant   

n.陆军中尉，海军上尉；代理官员，副职官员

参考例句：

• He was promoted to be a lieutenant in the army.他被提升为陆军中尉。
• He prevailed on the lieutenant to send in a short note.他说动那个副官，递上了一张简短的便条进去。

7 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

8 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

9 pariah   

n.被社会抛弃者

参考例句：

• Shortly Tom came upon the juvenile pariah of the village.不一会儿，汤姆碰上了村里的少年弃儿。
• His landlady had treated him like a dangerous criminal,a pariah.房东太太对待他就像对待危险的罪犯、对待社会弃儿一样。

10 garner   

v.收藏；取得

参考例句：

• He has garnered extensive support for his proposals.他的提议得到了广泛的支持。
• Squirrels garner nuts for the winter.松鼠为过冬储存松果。

11 munitions   

n.军火，弹药；v.供应…军需品

参考例句：

• The army used precision-guided munitions to blow up enemy targets.军队用精确瞄准的枪炮炸掉敌方目标。
• He rose [made a career for himself] by dealing in munitions.他是靠贩卖军火发迹的。

12 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

13 pretext   

n.借口，托词

参考例句：

• He used his headache as a pretext for not going to school.他借口头疼而不去上学。
• He didn't attend that meeting under the pretext of sickness.他以生病为借口，没参加那个会议。

14 adversaries   

n.对手，敌手( adversary的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• That would cause potential adversaries to recoil from a challenge. 这会迫使潜在的敌人在挑战面前退缩。 来自辞典例句
• Every adversaries are more comfortable with a predictable, coherent America. 就连敌人也会因有可以预料的，始终一致的美国而感到舒服得多。 来自辞典例句

15 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

16 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

17 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。