美国国家公共电台 NPR--With global trade expected to slow, the WTO warns of a possible recession

With global trade expected to slow, the WTO warns of a possible recession

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Paul Hannon of The Wall Street Journal about the World Trade Organization predicting a sharp slowdown in trade as nations grapple with inflation and rising energy costs.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The World Trade Organization is warning of a sharp slowdown in global trade next year.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA: The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably².

FADEL: That's WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

A decision on Wednesday by some of the most powerful oil producers around the globe to cut oil production has angered U.S. and European leaders. The move will increase pressure over energy costs for many countries.

FADEL: Paul Hannon of The Wall Street Journal joins us now with more context on this economic outlook. Hi, Paul.

PAUL HANNON: Hi, Leila.

FADEL: So, Paul, let's talk about why the World Trade Organization is warning of a global recession and how much of this is about oil prices now that OPEC+ has decided³ to reduce oil production.

HANNON: Well, the World Trade Organization issued its warning before the OPEC+ decision. But one of the things the WTO was worried about was high energy prices because when the price of essentials like energy and food are very high, households have much less money to spend on other goods, and that means that economic growth more broadly weakens. So the OPEC+ decision makes that a more likely outcome. It makes a global downturn a more likely outcome and will likely keep inflation higher for longer.

FADEL: OK. So this is all really hard news for people already struggling with the inflation that's here now. Are there some silver linings⁵?

HANNON: I think the silver lining⁴ is probably in the inflation outlook. If trade flows are beginning to ease, if the global economy is beginning to cool, that should have an impact on inflation rates, which central banks have been raising their interest rates to contain. There are some indications already that inflation may have peaked at a global level. The global inflation rate has been pretty unchanged since June, although at a really high level. So, yes, there may be some relief on the way, but it's probably going to take quite a few months before people feel a return to a normal kind of level of inflation.

FADEL: And what are the biggest challenges for G-7 policymakers as they think about how to deal with this?

HANNON: It's a balance for them. On the one hand, they've clearly prioritized inflation as their, you know, enemy No. 1 This is the thing that economic policymakers need to get on top of for fear of a repeat of what happened in the 1970s. On the other hand, rising interest rates, do, you know, eat into household budgets. They do lead to higher mortgage payments, higher payments on loans of all kinds. So that can sort of double-down on the hardship that households feel and potentially make any recession deeper.

FADEL: Paul Hannon of The Wall Street Journal. Thanks, Paul.

HANNON: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

3 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

4 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。

5 linings   

n.衬里( lining的名词复数 )；里子；衬料；组织

参考例句：

• a pair of leather gloves with fur linings 一双毛皮衬里的皮手套
• Many of the garments have the customers' name tags sewn into the linings. 这些衣服有很多内衬上缝有顾客的姓名签。 来自辞典例句