美国国家公共电台 NPR--Key GOP groups are more fired up to vote in midterms than Democrats, NPR poll finds

Key GOP groups are more fired up to vote in midterms than Democrats², NPR poll finds

Transcript³

Heading into the final week of voting, some of Democrats' key base voters' levels of enthusiasm are far below that of Republican-base voter groups, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found. It is the last NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey before voting wraps up Tuesday.

The crosscurrents of this election are combining to make for uncertainty⁴ and volatility⁵ with just days to go. Most midterms are referenda on the sitting president and the party in power. That is largely the case with President Biden's approval rating slipping again, Democrats losing ground on which party voters want to control Congress and inflation being the top issue — with voters saying they trust Republicans more on the issue by 20 points.

But preserving democracy and abortion⁷ have also been key and hugely motivating factors, as former President Trump⁸, whom the poll found is equally unpopular as Biden, has weighed in heavily in these elections. He's endorsed⁹ scores of candidates, many of whom have emulated¹⁰ him, perpetuated¹¹ his election lies and struggled in purple states.

The poll also found, though, that Republican voters are largely OK with voting for an election denier, as long as they agree on policy positions — and it found in this age of hyperpartisanship, a huge shift away from people thinking divided government is a good thing.

The survey of of 1,586 adults and 1,469 registered voters was conducted Oct. 24 through Oct. 27 by the Marist Poll and sponsored in partnership¹² with NPR and PBS NewsHour. There is about a +/- 4 percentage point margin¹³ of error, meaning results could be 4 points lower or higher than what's listed.

Republicans hold the enthusiasm edge

While white women with college degrees, who are an important bloc¹⁴ for Democrats, are among the most enthusiastic to vote, Black voters, Latinos and young voters are among the least.

At the same time, older voters, Trump voters, white evangelical Christians¹⁵ and rural voters — all key GOP groups — are fired up to vote. Those without college degrees are less enthusiastic about the election, but that's driven by voters of color without degrees.

Notably¹⁶, showing why midterm elections tend to be base elections, independents are also way down the list when it comes to enthusiasm.

Before the Supreme¹⁷ Court's Dobbs decision overturning Roe¹⁸, Democratic enthusiasm was way below that of Republicans'. But Democratic activism, fundraising and interest in these elections went way up. Democrats closed the enthusiasm gap and were on par⁶ with GOP voters over the summer and into September.

In the last few weeks, however, as more voters have begun tuning¹⁹ into the election — and with inflation persistently²⁰ high — Republican enthusiasm has outpaced Democrats'. It's not so much that Democrats aren't gaining in their enthusiasm levels — they are — it's that Republicans have increased theirs by more in that time.

Democrats are also losing ground on the generic²¹ congressional ballot²² test. That's when pollsters ask who a respondent would vote for if the election were held today, a Republican or Democrat¹.

In this survey, it's tied 46%-46% — and that tends to be bad news for Democrats. Historically, they have needed a substantial lead on that question to do well in the House, because of how districts are drawn²³ and with swing districts largely in right-leaning places.

Top issues remain inflation, abortion and preserving democracy

The survey found inflation continues to be the top issue for voters heading into the final days of voting with 36% saying so, followed by preserving democracy (26%), abortion (14%), immigration (9%), health care (8%) and crime (7%).

Predictably, it's different when looking at preferences by party — slightly more than half of Republicans and 40% of independents said inflation was their top voting issue, but for Democrats, it was preserving democracy (42%) followed by abortion (22%).

Republicans are trusted by wide margins²⁴ on inflation (R+20), crime (R+16) and immigration (R+12), the three issues the GOP has focused on most in these elections.

Democrats, on the other hand, are trusted most on health care (D+14), abortion (D+13) and preserving democracy (D+7).

Overwhelming majority of Republicans are OK with voting for an election denier

More than four-in-five Republicans said they would "likely" vote for a candidates they agree with on most issues — even if that candidate thinks the 2020 election was stolen, which it was not.

In contrast, only a third of Democrats said they would, while slightly more than half of independents would.

A majority of Republicans (53%) said they would "very likely" vote for someone who thought (incorrectly) that the election was stolen, as compared to one-in-five Democrats and a third of independents.

Republicans were also less likely to say their preferred candidate should "definitely" concede if they were declared the loser in their race. While almost two-thirds of Democrats said so, only 39% of Republicans did.

Three-quarters of Americans said they have confidence in their local and state governments to conduct a fair and accurate election, though. Republicans were less likely to say so, but still almost two-thirds of them said they do have that confidence despite extreme rhetoric²⁵ coming from candidates and people like Trump.

Americans no longer favor divided government

For a long time, Americans tended to think divided government was a good thing — a way for a party in power's worst instincts to be checked.

Not anymore.

Now by a 53%-to-38% margin, they say it's better for the government to be controlled by the same party. Democrats, who are seeing their majorities threatened this year, are driving that with 73% saying so, but a slim majority of independents and about half of Republicans feel the same way.

Also, overall, 27% of Americans say they have already voted with another 28% saying they plan to vote before Election Day. Forty-three percent say they will vote in-person on Election Day.

Sixty-two percent of Democrats said they have already voted or plan to do so, while 46% of Republicans said so. A majority of Republicans said they plan to vote in-person on Election Day.

1 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

2 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

6 par   

n.标准，票面价值，平均数量；adj.票面的，平常的，标准的

参考例句：

• Sales of nylon have been below par in recent years.近年来尼龙织品的销售额一直不及以往。
• I don't think his ability is on a par with yours.我认为他的能力不能与你的能力相媲美。

7 abortion   

n.流产，堕胎

参考例句：

• She had an abortion at the women's health clinic.她在妇女保健医院做了流产手术。
• A number of considerations have led her to have a wilful abortion.多种考虑使她执意堕胎。

8 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

9 endorsed   

vt.& vi.endorse的过去式或过去分词形式v.赞同( endorse的过去式和过去分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品

参考例句：

• The committee endorsed an initiative by the chairman to enter discussion about a possible merger. 委员会通过了主席提出的新方案，开始就可能进行的并购进行讨论。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The government has broadly endorsed a research paper proposing new educational targets for 14-year-olds. 政府基本上支持建议对14 岁少年实行新教育目标的研究报告。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 emulated   

v.与…竞争( emulate的过去式和过去分词 )；努力赶上；计算机程序等仿真；模仿

参考例句：

• The havoc that months had previously wrought was now emulated by the inroads of hours. 前几个月已经使他垮下来，如今更是一小时一小时地在恶化。 来自辞典例句
• The key technology emulated by CAD and the circuit is showed. 对关键技术进行了仿真，给出了电路实现形式。 来自互联网

11 perpetuated   

vt.使永存（perpetuate的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• This system perpetuated itself for several centuries. 这一制度维持了几个世纪。
• I never before saw smile caught like that, and perpetuated. 我从来没有看见过谁的笑容陷入这样的窘况，而且持续不变。 来自辞典例句

12 partnership   

n.合作关系，伙伴关系

参考例句：

• The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
• Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。

13 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

14 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

15 Christians   

n.基督教徒( Christian的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Christians of all denominations attended the conference. 基督教所有教派的人都出席了这次会议。
• His novel about Jesus caused a furore among Christians. 他关于耶稣的小说激起了基督教徒的公愤。

16 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

17 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

18 roe   

n.鱼卵；獐鹿

参考例句：

• We will serve smoked cod's roe at the dinner.宴会上我们将上一道熏鳕鱼子。
• I'll scramble some eggs with roe?我用鱼籽炒几个鸡蛋好吗？

19 tuning   

n.调谐，调整，调音v.调音( tune的现在分词 )；调整；（给收音机、电视等）调谐；使协调

参考例句：

• They are tuning up a plane on the flight line. 他们正在机场的飞机跑道上调试一架飞机。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The orchestra are tuning up. 管弦乐队在定弦。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

20 persistently   

ad.坚持地；固执地

参考例句：

• He persistently asserted his right to a share in the heritage. 他始终声称他有分享那笔遗产的权利。
• She persistently asserted her opinions. 她果断地说出了自己的意见。

21 generic   

adj.一般的，普通的，共有的

参考例句：

• I usually buy generic clothes instead of name brands.我通常买普通的衣服，不买名牌。
• The generic woman appears to have an extraordinary faculty for swallowing the individual.一般妇女在婚后似乎有特别突出的抑制个性的能力。

22 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

23 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

24 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

25 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。