美国国家公共电台 NPR--The Fed orders another jumbo interest rate hike. Many are wondering what's next

The Fed orders another jumbo interest rate hike. Many are wondering what's next

Transcript¹

The Federal Reserve ordered another big boost in interest rates on Wednesday, and warned that rates will have to go even higher to bring stubbornly high inflation under control.

The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 3/4 of a percentage point. The rate, which was near zero in March, has jumped 3.75 percentage points in the last eight months. That's the most aggressive string of rate hikes in decades, but so far it's done little to curb² inflation.

"Interest rates have risen at a whiplash-inducing speed, and we're not done yet," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst³ at Bankrate. "It's going to take some time for inflation to come down from these lofty levels, even once we do start to see some improvement."

Annual inflation in September was 6.2%, according to the Fed's preferred yardstick⁴ — unchanged from the month before. The better known consumer price index shows prices rising even faster, at an annual rate of 8.2%.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell warned that taming such severe inflation will likely require even higher interest rates than he and his colleagues had predicted just two months ago.

"What I'm trying to do is make sure our message is clear," Powell told reporters Wednesday. "We have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to that level that we think is sufficiently⁵ restrictive."

At the same time, Powell said the pace of rate increases may soon slow, as policymakers take stock on the effect higher borrowing costs are having on the economy.

"That time is coming, and it may come as soon as the next meeting or the one after that," Powell said.

Stocks initially⁶ rallied at the hint of smaller rate hikes in December or January, but soon sank at the prospect⁷ that rates will ultimately have to go higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points or 1.55%. The broader S&P 500 index fell 2.5%.

McBride argues that in order to curb inflation, borrowing costs will likely have to remain elevated for an extended period.

"The mantra for 2023 is 'higher for longer,'" he said. "When inflation's been running at 6, 7, 8% and the target is 2%, it's going to take a while."

Rate hikes are having an effect, even if inflation remains⁸ untamed

Higher borrowing costs have already put a big dent⁹ in the housing market. And other parts of the economy are beginning to slow. But consumers, still flush with cash saved up early in the pandemic, continue to spend money. As a result, the Fed may have to tap the brakes harder, for longer, than it otherwise would.

"We see today that there is a bit of a savings¹⁰ buffer¹¹ still sitting for households, that may allow them to continue to spend in a way that keeps demand strong," said Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. "That suggests we may have to keep at this for a while."

Like her colleagues on the Fed's rate-setting committee, George has expressed a determination to control inflation. But she's also cautioned against raising rates too rapidly at a time of economic uncertainty¹².

"I have been in the camp of steadier and slower [rate increases], to begin to see how those effects from a lag will unfold," George said last month. "My concern being that a succession of very super-sized rate hikes might cause you to oversteer and not be able to see those turning points."

With polls showing inflation is a top concern among voters, the Biden administration and most members of Congress have stayed out of the Fed's way as it tries to control prices. But a handful of Democrats¹³ have begun to challenge the central bank's approach, warning that aggressive rates hikes could put millions of people out of work.

"We are deeply concerned that your interest rate hikes risk slowing the economy to a crawl while failing to slow rising prices that continue to harm families," Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and colleagues wrote in a letter Monday to Fed chairman Jerome Powell.

The housing market has already slowed to a crawl, as mortgage rates top 7% for the first time in two decades.

Kansas City homebuilder Shawn Woods said his company has gone from selling a dozen houses a month before the Fed started raising rates to fewer than five.

"Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought we'd go from 3% [mortgage rates] to 7% within six months," said Woods, president of Ashlar Homes and the Home Builders Association of Kansas City.

"I think we're in for a rough six or eight months," Woods said. "Typically, housing leads us into downturns and it leads us out of downturns. And I think from a housing perspective, we've probably been in a housing recession since March or April."

Despite the fallout from rising interest rates, Powell said the central bank has a responsibility to bring inflation under control.

"No one knows whether there's going to be a recession or not, and if so how bad that recession would be," Powell said. "Our job is to restore price stability so that we can have a strong labor¹⁴ market that benefits all, over time."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

3 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

4 yardstick   

n.计算标准，尺度；评价标准

参考例句：

• This is a yardstick for measuring whether a person is really progressive.这是衡量一个人是否真正进步的标准。
• She was a yardstick against which I could measure my achievements.她是一个我可以用来衡量我的成就的准绳。

5 sufficiently   

adv.足够地，充分地

参考例句：

• It turned out he had not insured the house sufficiently.原来他没有给房屋投足保险。
• The new policy was sufficiently elastic to accommodate both views.新政策充分灵活地适用两种观点。

6 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

7 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

8 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

9 dent   

n.凹痕，凹坑；初步进展

参考例句：

• I don't know how it came about but I've got a dent in the rear of my car.我不知道是怎么回事，但我的汽车后部有了一个凹痕。
• That dent is not big enough to be worth hammering out.那个凹陷不大，用不着把它锤平。

10 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

11 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

12 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

13 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。