美国国家公共电台 NPR--Examining the missile mishap in Poland and the lessons to take away

Examining the missile mishap¹ in Poland and the lessons to take away

Transcript²

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Stephen Flanagan, a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, about the lessons NATO can learn from this week's missile strike near Poland's border with Ukraine.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Stephen Flanagan is with us now to discuss this further. He's a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation and a former senior director on the National Security Council during the Obama administration. Stephen, welcome.

STEPHEN FLANAGAN: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: Good morning. So as we heard, one of the big concerns since the start of the Russian war on Ukraine has been the possibility of escalation³ into a wider conflict. And that missile strike on a Polish village accident - appears to be an accident, but it elevated those fears. What did we learn from NATO's response to that incident and the process for determining whether the alliance has been attacked?

FLANAGAN: Well, I think we did - you point out exactly the risks. And we did see NATO respond, I think, in a very effective way in trying to address and clarify what the situation was and to reassure⁴, particularly its Polish allies, who were - the Polish allies who were the victim of this - of the effects of the missile incident, about the commitment of the alliance to Polish security. But the - overall, the incident underscores that the risks, as you say, of this wider war as - extending into a number of European countries, including others who are NATO allies, as these hundreds of Russian strikes continue to escalate⁵...

FADEL: Yeah.

FLANAGAN: ...Across the - all of Ukraine, and particularly out to western Ukraine, where some of these border areas are. But it - but the way the incident went down underscores the need for close consultations⁶ with allies, but also with Ukraine. As we see, as your reporter just noted⁷, some differences between, now, Ukraine and the Polish and U.S. assessment⁸ as to what exactly happened and whose air defense⁹ missile it was or whether it was some other missile that, perhaps, the Russians had fired.

FADEL: You know, that begs the question, you know? Right now, Ukraine is saying, wait a second. It wasn't a Ukrainian mistake. That's not what the evidence was. Is this just a way so that NATO allies aren't just dragged into a bigger war?

FLANAGAN: No. I think Ukraine just wants to be able to have access to the site to try to help and be engaged in the assessment. And the Polish president suggested that right now, the investigation¹⁰ was being led by his government and the United States. But President Zelenskyy has asked for access. And I expect that they will share all the information that they have so that this can be clarified because of the importance of - that both Poland and the United States and other NATO allies are providing extensive security assistance and other military support to Ukraine. So they want to clarify this, I think, as soon as possible.

FADEL: As we heard, NATO's still putting the blame at Russia's door for invading and attacking Ukraine in the first place. What do you think Russia took away from watching NATO's really cautious approach in its reaction?

FLANAGAN: Well, I think the Russians first saw NATO - a prompt response from NATO in gathering¹¹ consultations, trying to make an assessment. There were some - you know, the initial and preliminary suspicions, particularly the Poles and other Central-East Europeans, was that this must be a Russian missile strike - and particularly coming along that border where there are shipments of material going into Ukraine with Western security assistance, that perhaps this was a warning shot from the Russians. But the Russians saw that NATO made a deliberate assessment of the situation and then articulated a statement, as you saw yesterday in Secretary General Stoltenberg's press conference, where he said it did appear to be an errant Ukrainian air defense system.

Nevertheless, the Russians tried to capitalize this and suggest that, well, we see the hotheads in the West are already trying to stoke further tensions and that the West is trying to escalate this conflict, so a bit - turning things a bit on its head. But I think, as your reporter noted, Secretary Stoltenberg said, make no mistake who's responsible for this. Ukraine wouldn't be firing off - if this is, in fact, a Ukrainian air defense missile that went errant, they wouldn't be firing those missiles off if the country wasn't under a vicious attack by the Russian military forces.

FADEL: Does it make it more or less likely that Russia might attempt to test NATO's resolve?

FLANAGAN: Well, I think NATO met the initial test. It certainly is one that - this is certainly one scenario¹², one that we've looked at in some of our analysis among my colleagues of potential escalation scenarios¹³. And this idea of striking, perhaps, one of the transshipment points of security assistance or a couple of test strikes along the border with Ukraine against NATO members to see how the alliance does respond is certainly one that needs watching.

But that's also another reason and one of the other takeaways I have from this event, is that it is important to maintain a line of communications with the Russians to manage these escalation risks. And that has continued. General Milley has talked to his counterpart, General Gerasimov, periodically. We know that CIA Director Burns was in Moscow recently. There are other high-level ways of communicating and trying to manage and ensure that this fear that all the countries in NATO have of a wider war doesn't emerge, even as the United States and the other NATO allies continue to support Ukraine in its effort to end the Russian aggression¹⁴.

FADEL: Now, Article 5 of NATO's charter regards an armed attack on one member as an attack on all. It's been invoked¹⁶ just once by the U.S. after 9/11. Could a missile falling on a NATO ally, errant or not, from Russia be enough to invoke¹⁵ Article 5?

FLANAGAN: It could, indeed. And, indeed, the Poles initially¹⁷ had indicated that they might like to ask for what's sometimes seen as a preliminary to invoking¹⁸ an Article 5 and Article 4 consultations within the alliance. There was a meeting at the North Atlantic Council on Wednesday. I don't know - I don't believe they did actually invoke that other article. But clearly, if there were a direct attack, it would be - such as you describe, that would conceivably invoke Article 5 commitments.

FADEL: Stephen Flanagan is a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation. Thank you for your time.

FLANAGAN: Thank you, Leila.

1 mishap   

n.不幸的事，不幸；灾祸

参考例句：

• I'm afraid your son had a slight mishap in the playground.不好了，你儿子在操场上出了点小意外。
• We reached home without mishap.我们平安地回到了家。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

4 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。

5 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

6 consultations   

n.磋商（会议）( consultation的名词复数 )；商讨会；协商会；查找

参考例句：

• Consultations can be arranged at other times by appointment. 磋商可以通过预约安排在其他时间。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Consultations are under way. 正在进行磋商。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

9 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

10 investigation   

n.调查，调查研究

参考例句：

• In an investigation,a new fact became known, which told against him.在调查中新发现了一件对他不利的事实。
• He drew the conclusion by building on his own investigation.他根据自己的调查研究作出结论。

11 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

12 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

13 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

14 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

15 invoke   

v.求助于(神、法律)；恳求，乞求

参考例句：

• Let us invoke the blessings of peace.让我们祈求和平之福。
• I hope I'll never have to invoke this clause and lodge a claim with you.我希望我永远不会使用这个条款向你们索赔。

16 invoked   

v.援引( invoke的过去式和过去分词 )；行使（权利等）；祈求救助；恳求

参考例句：

• It is unlikely that libel laws will be invoked. 不大可能诉诸诽谤法。
• She had invoked the law in her own defence. 她援引法律为自己辩护。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

18 invoking   

v.援引( invoke的现在分词 )；行使（权利等）；祈求救助；恳求

参考例句：

• You can customise the behavior of the Asynchronous Server and hence re-brand it by defining your own command set for invoking services. 通过定义自己调用服务的命令集，您可以定制自定义异步服务器的行为，通过为调用服务定义自己的命令集从而对它重新标记。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• You can customize the behavior of the Asynchronous Server and hence re-brand it by defining your own command set for invoking services. 通过定义自己调用服务的命令集，您可以定制自定义异步服务器的行为，通过为调用服务定义自己的命令集从而对它重新标记。 来自辞典例句