美国国家公共电台 NPR--For the first time there are 8 billion people on the Earth, U.N. report says

For the first time there are 8 billion people on the Earth, U.N. report says

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Jack² Goldstone, a professor of public policy at George Mason University, who writes about population trends, about the world's growing population.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

There are now 8 billion people living on planet Earth. It's a milestone³ that came pretty quickly. The world added 7 billion people in just over 200 years. And while we continue to grow, the Earth does not. So should we be alarmed about so many people using the world's finite⁴ resources, especially amid climate change? Joining us to unpack⁵ this is Jack Goldstone. He's a professor of public policy at George Mason University. And he writes about global population trends. Good morning. Thanks for being on the program.

JACK GOLDSTONE: Good morning. Glad to be here.

FADEL: OK. So let's start with that big question. Should we be alarmed? Eight billion people, is that too many people living on this planet?

GOLDSTONE: It's really not. We've handled 8 billion. I think we can still manage at 9 billion or even 10 billion. It's all a matter of paying attention to what people are doing, how they live and which specific areas and groups are growing the fastest. The fact that global population is 8 billion and it's going to be nine or 10 billion, that's not the critical issue - it's the fact that the United States, for example, is half again larger than Nigeria today. But in a hundred years, Nigeria will be half again larger than the United States.

FADEL: OK.

GOLDSTONE: So how do we manage that imbalance? Do we have to prepare for increases in immigration? Or will Nigeria be so prosperous that it can employ all of its own people?

FADEL: Well, let's...

GOLDSTONE: I think what's important about the 8 billion is that we're going to be connected. And so we have to get used to the idea that what happens in other places will directly affect our quality of life here.

FADEL: Well, let's talk about that because there are - the birth rates are actually down across much of the world. So if you could just break down what parts of the world account for all of this population growth or much of this population growth?

GOLDSTONE: Of course. Well, places like India and China, which are the largest countries in the world today, have pretty much stopped growing. In fact, China's population will likely decline⁶ a little bit in the next 30 years, and then a lot more between 2050 and 2100. The growth is taking place mainly in Africa. A few countries in Asia, like Pakistan, are also growing fast. But it's really - Africa right now we think will grow from today's 1.4 billion to 2.5 billion in 30 years and 4 billion by the end of the century. That's the real driver of growth.

Now, some people say, is that something to worry about? Well, if that African population is productive⁷, if they're on a low fossil⁸ fuel energy trajectory⁹, then that's great because without that population becoming productive, the world will struggle to find economic growth. Other countries don't have growing populations. But if that African population is on a high fossil fuel growth path and remains¹⁰ relatively¹¹ poor, then the world as a whole will face great difficulties. We won't be able to compensate¹² for the growth in population, plus a high fossil fuel trajectory.

FADEL: So what do...

GOLDSTONE: So that's a big problem.

FADEL: So what do world leaders need to do to make this sustainable? - because you talk about how there are actually enough resources. But right now, there are famines in places like Somalia, for example. So what do world leaders need to do to make sure that with these billions of people on the planet, everybody has access to food and the resources on this planet?

GOLDSTONE: Well, there will be more famines if climate change is not slowed.

FADEL: Yeah.

GOLDSTONE: And so the big issue is helping¹³ countries that are going to face a lot of growth in energy in the future get on a fossil fuel path that is cleaner. The same thing is true for the countries that are big fossil burners now - the U.S., India, China. They also need to get on a clean path as soon as possible, which is to everyone's advantage because in the long run, solar and wind are cheaper than the way we make energy now. But the sooner we can get into that clean, lower cost future, the better for the world. The other thing I should point out is that just because population is not growing very fast in Europe or the U.S. or China, that doesn't mean that population issues don't exist there. What's growing fast is the over 65 population.

FADEL: Right.

GOLDSTONE: In fact, it's growing much faster than the world population as a whole. So we also need to develop policies to keep over 65 - our elder populations, which include folks like me, keep us productive, keep us contributing to the economy.

FADEL: Jack Goldstone is a professor of public policy at George Mason University. Thanks so much for your time.

GOLDSTONE: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

3 milestone   

n.里程碑；划时代的事件

参考例句：

• The film proved to be a milestone in the history of cinema.事实证明这部影片是电影史上的一个里程碑。
• I think this is a very important milestone in the relations between our two countries.我认为这是我们两国关系中一个十分重要的里程碑。

4 finite   

adj.有限的，有限制的，限定的

参考例句：

• These are the finite forms of a verb.这些是一个动词的限定形式。
• Human understanding is finite.人的理解力是有限的。

5 unpack   

vt.打开包裹（或行李），卸货

参考例句：

• I must unpack before dinner.我得在饭前把行李打开。
• She said she would unpack the items later.她说以后再把箱子里的东西拿出来。

6 decline   

n.衰微，跌落，下降；vt.使降低，婉谢；vi.下降，衰落，偏斜

参考例句：

• I must decline to show favour to any of the candidates.我必须拒绝偏袒任何一位候选人。
• The birthrate is on the decline.出生率在下降。

7 productive   

adj.能生产的，有生产价值的，多产的

参考例句：

• We had a productive meeting that solved some problems.我们开了一个富有成效的会议，解决了一些问题。
• Science and technology are part of the productive forces.科学技术是生产力。

8 fossil   

n.化石，食古不化的人，老顽固

参考例句：

• At this distance of time it is difficult to date the fossil.时间隔得这么久了，很难确定这化石的年代。
• The man is a fossil.那人是个老顽固。

9 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

10 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

11 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

12 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

13 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。