美国国家公共电台 NPR--With the COVID lockdown protests, how stable is China's economy?

With the COVID lockdown protests, how stable is China's economy?

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez speaks to economist² Stephen Roach about the fallout over China's strict COVID-19 policies, and how the protests could affect the global economy.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

The economic effects of the zero-COVID enforcement that sparked these protests in China could be felt worldwide. Economist Stephen Roach joins us now. He's a senior fellow with the Paul Tsai China Center of the Yale Law School. Stephen, even before these protests began, China was expected to see slower growth. Now what kind of economic shock waves could we see?

STEPHEN ROACH: Well, the lockdowns right now, by accounts I've seen, are impacting areas that account for slightly more than 25% of Chinese GDP. Compare that with last April, when the Shanghai impacts were at their maximum, that number was 21%. So it's going to continue to have a significant hit to GDP growth. And China's growing right now at rates that are far short of its longer-term trend. And that's a real problem for the world, which is also heading toward recession in Europe and possibly the United States next year.

MART?NEZ: And China's president, Xi Jinping, I'm sure he knows what you just told me, Stephen. So why continue them if it's hurting the GDP like it is?

ROACH: Autocrats³ have a hard time admitting they're wrong. We know this policy is a complete, unmitigated disaster. But at the end of the day, Xi Jinping wants to stand up and proudly boast that the Chinese system limited fatalities⁴ in a way that the West would only dream of. And he views that as his real mark of success, despite the near-term problems.

MART?NEZ: So he views COVID as a greater threat than a slow or a slowing economy.

ROACH: Well, he thinks that COVID containment⁵ on a near-term basis is a price worth paying for a shortfall of economic growth. And he's confident that the economy will bounce back. I don't share that confidence at all. I think post-COVID, the rebound⁶ is going to be very limited for a variety of reasons that I've written about. But...

MART?NEZ: Why do you think that?

ROACH: Well, two things. One, the working-age population is declining because of the demographic problems. And secondly⁷, the productivity that really boosts the leverage⁸ of Chinese workers is also weakening and likely to get worse. And I think that's a lethal⁹ combination for any economy. China is not an exception to that rule.

MART?NEZ: So how long do you think, Stephen, before there is a significant impact on the global supply chain?

ROACH: Well, we're already seeing it with Apple. You know, the quintessential multinational¹⁰ producer is reporting a major production shortfall in the holiday selling season. Apple's already diversifying¹¹ some of its China exposure by actually, surprisingly, starting to make some iPhones in India. So these impacts are here and now.

MART?NEZ: If you're an American company that has production in China and there's a shutdown near your facility, I mean, is that something that American companies need to start worrying about?

ROACH: Absolutely. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. China's been an extraordinary offshore¹² production platform for many multinationals¹³, but it's time to really think actively¹⁴ and seriously about a diversification¹⁵ strategy. And Apple is certainly an example of that.

MART?NEZ: What are some of the other potential consequences outside of China's borders with all this?

ROACH: Well, as China continues to suffer from a gross shortfall of zero-COVID, global demand comes down. That will provide some relief to the inflationary pressures and to energy markets. So that's a welcome development for people worried about inflation. But there's no mistaking the fact that the world needs a China growth cushion. That was very important in keeping the world afloat in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of '08 and '09. And that's not going to be a supportive factor going forward, and that's a disconcerting development.

MART?NEZ: So how does Wall Street see this? You mention '08 and '09.

ROACH: Well, I think, you know, Wall Street views this as a negative for global economic growth, which is clearly an impact on recessionary trends in the U.S. and Europe. There's some talk that this is going to be a replay of Tiananmen Square, and that would be very disturbing for investors¹⁶ around the world. I think those fears are overblown. They're - back in 1989, there was a political rallying cry around the death of Hu Yaobang. That's not present today.

MART?NEZ: Economist Stephen Roach with the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School. His new book is out today. It's called "Accidental Conflict: America, China, And The Clash Of False Narratives¹⁷." Stephen, thanks.

ROACH: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 autocrats   

n.独裁统治者( autocrat的名词复数 )；独断专行的人

参考例句：

• Still, the widespread pessimism doesn't explain the relatively high scores enjoyed by the autocrats. 不过，普遍的悲观情绪并没有解释为何独裁者得到相对较高的分数。 来自互联网

4 fatalities   

n.恶性事故( fatality的名词复数 )；死亡；致命性；命运

参考例句：

• Several people were injured, but there were no fatalities. 有几个人受伤，但没有人死亡。
• The accident resulted in fatalities. 那宗意外道致多人死亡。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 containment   

n.阻止，遏制；容量

参考例句：

• Your list might include such things as cost containment,quality,or customer satisfaction.你的清单上应列有诸如成本控制、产品质量、客户满意程度等内容。
• Insularity and self-containment,it is argued,go hand in hand.他们争论说，心胸狭窄和自我封闭是并存的。

6 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

7 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。

8 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

9 lethal   

adj.致死的；毁灭性的

参考例句：

• A hammer can be a lethal weapon.铁锤可以是致命的武器。
• She took a lethal amount of poison and died.她服了致命剂量的毒药死了。

10 multinational   

adj.多国的，多种国籍的；n.多国籍公司，跨国公司

参考例句：

• The firm was taken over by a multinational consulting firm.这家公司被一个跨国咨询公司收购。
• He analyzed the relationship between multinational corporations and under-developed countries.他分析了跨国公司和不发达国家之间的关系。

11 diversifying   

v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的现在分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• Some publishers are now diversifying into software. 有些出版社目前正兼营软件。 来自辞典例句
• Silverlit is diversifying into new markets, such as Russia and Eastern Europe. Silverlit正在使他们的市场变得多样化，开发新的市场如俄罗斯和东欧国家。 来自互联网

12 offshore   

adj.海面的，吹向海面的；adv.向海面

参考例句：

• A big program of oil exploration has begun offshore.一个大规模的石油勘探计划正在近海展开。
• A gentle current carried them slowly offshore.和缓的潮流慢慢地把他们带离了海岸。

13 multinationals   

跨国公司( multinational的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These local companies are only small fry compared with the huge multinationals. 同那些跨国公司比，这些当地的公司不过是小鱼小虾。
• Some people believe that the multinationals have too much power. 有人认为跨国公司的权力太大了。

14 actively   

adv.积极地，勤奋地

参考例句：

• During this period all the students were actively participating.在这节课中所有的学生都积极参加。
• We are actively intervening to settle a quarrel.我们正在积极调解争执。

15 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

16 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

17 narratives   

记叙文( narrative的名词复数 )； 故事； 叙述； 叙述部分

参考例句：

• Marriage, which has been the bourne of so many narratives, is still a great beginning. 结婚一向是许多小说的终点，然而也是一个伟大的开始。
• This is one of the narratives that children are fond of. 这是孩子们喜欢的故事之一。