美国国家公共电台 NPR--Putin miscalculated what a hard slog the war in Ukraine would be, Rice says

Putin miscalculated what a hard slog the war in Ukraine would be, Rice says

Transcript¹

NPR's Rachel Martin talks to former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. She is now the director of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

International outcry continues this morning after Ukraine said a Russian airstrike hit a maternity² hospital in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. With the attacks ongoing³, we turn to a leading voice on Russia and Eastern Europe - Condoleezza Rice. She brought her expertise⁴ to the National Security Council for President George H.W. Bush and then as national security adviser⁵ and secretary of state for President George W. Bush during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq and the following occupation. What lessons could be learned from the past, and what lessons can we take from Russia's invasion of Ukraine now? Our co-host, Rachel Martin, spoke⁶ to the former secretary of state.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

In your estimation, was this war in Ukraine predictable?

CONDOLEEZZA RICE: I don't think that the war, as it has unfolded, was predictable. But I think that it was predictable that Vladimir Putin would eventually try and realize through some means his dream of reconstituting, really, the Russian empire. So perhaps he thought this was his last chance to pull Ukraine back from the West. What was unpredictable, maybe even to Vladimir Putin, was that this would be such a hard slog for the Russian armed forces, which have not been able to subjugate⁷ the Ukrainian people, despite the extraordinary force that they've thrown at them. And so he miscalculated. But even if it's the miscalculation, I do think that to come to this point, there is something going on with him that is less calculating, less rational, in a sense, than before.

MARTIN: I want to ask another question about the resistance - I mean, these posts from Ukraine's president, photos of civilians⁸ being attacked by Russian forces...

RICE: Yes.

MARTIN: ...Which are all horrific. I was recently struck by this video of a group of women. Not sure if you saw this. They've joined Ukraine's military. They're all dressed in fatigues⁹, face masks, automatic rifles in their hands - saying, we have taken our children to safety; now we're fighting, and, quote, "we will destroy the enemy on every inch of Ukrainian land." Is Putin prepared to occupy a democratic country and fight an insurgency¹⁰ like this?

RICE: This has to be a moment of truth, if you will, in Russia about whether or not - you know, they're a little bit familiar with insurgencies, and they know that they can be very, very tough. It's hard to imagine that they want to actually try to bring their soldiers into the center of a city like Kyiv and watch 60-year-old women shoot their soldiers every time they come around a corner. That won't be a pretty picture. And it looks to me that what they are trying to do instead is to bomb the populations into submission¹¹, make it so difficult for the Ukrainian people that eventually the Ukrainian leadership, just to save their people, will have to negotiate in some way.

MARTIN: President Zelenskyy keeps asking for a no-fly zone. Do you agree with the Biden administration that to issue a no-fly zone would trigger a, quote, "full-fledged war in Europe," as Secretary Blinken put it?

RICE: Well, no-fly zones are a very, very serious undertaking¹². And it's easy to throw it around. It sounds defensive¹³. But you would probably have to suppress Russian air defenses. You would have to be prepared to shoot Russian aircraft out of the sky if, in fact, that they were attacking. And so I do think it risks wider war. And if I could wave a magic wand and go back a little bit and arm the Ukrainians more quickly and more fully¹⁵ with the kinds of munitions¹⁶ that we now see going in, maybe even earlier with air power, that could have done this, but I think that at this point, a no-fly zone is probably, wisely, not in the offing.

MARTIN: You say you wish you could go back in time and have the U.S. be funding, sending more military aid to Ukraine. I must ask, then, about President Trump¹⁷'s phone call, now infamous¹⁸ phone call, with President Zelenskyy in which President Trump appeared to be withholding¹⁹ military assistance in exchange for a Zelenskyy investigation²⁰ into President Biden.

RICE: Well, let me just say, this should have started after the Crimea invasion in 2014. That's when the arming of the Ukrainian forces should have started. And I have said publicly, I think that the call was inappropriate with President Trump and President Zelenskyy. But the Trump administration actually did then arm the Ukrainians with lethal²¹ weapons for the first time in our history. And so had we continued that and maybe accelerated it, we might be in a better position now.

MARTIN: It seems so complicated to give Ukrainians air power right now. The U.S. has turned down Poland's offer of fighter jets for Ukraine because of concerns that Putin would see this as a sign of aggression²². How do you get around that?

RICE: Well, it is hard once the war has begun to figure out how to get MiGs and Sukhoi aircraft to the Ukrainians because they're going to have to fly from somebody's airbases, and one can understand why the Poles might feel that that would make them a target. So...

MARTIN: Do you think NATO should own this and send these planes?

RICE: Look; I'm not on the ground and familiar with the ins and outs of the real difficulties they may be facing in getting the planes there. But I do think that we need to figure out a way to continue to deny the Russians air superiority. The good news is they haven't been able to establish air superiority. If we can continue to get Javelins²³ and Stingers into the Ukrainians, the Russians are going to have a tough fight trying to fly low. So while I hope they can find a way to get the fighter aircraft there to enhance Ukraine's capabilities²⁴, I hope we can also accelerate this ground-to-air war that appears to be at least bringing down some of the Russian Air Force and particularly their helicopters.

MARTIN: There are only so many ways this can end. Could you lay out what you believe to be the most likely scenarios²⁶?

RICE: Well, I will give you my hopeful scenario²⁵, which is that the Russians have had enough, that they recognize that the goal of overthrowing²⁷ the Zelenskyy government, bringing the Ukrainian people into submission, is not going to be realized and that Vladimir Putin - who, after all, controls the narrative²⁸ inside Russia at this point - decides that he is going to dress this up as victory.

MARTIN: NATO and the U.S. are now in this bind²⁹, wanting to support Ukraine's defense¹⁴ without further provoking Russia in a way that could broaden the war to other former Soviet³⁰ republics or even beyond. If the young democracy of Ukraine dies in Vladimir Putin's hands, what does that mean for the liberal world order, as someone who studies democracy?

RICE: It's disastrous³¹ for the liberal world order. It's disastrous for Europe. It's disastrous for all the values that we hold dear. And that's why we can't let Ukraine lose. Ukraine is the last defensible territory between the Russian military and our Article 5 commitments to the Baltic states and Poland and Romania, and so I think we have to throw everything at it that we can that the administration believes will not widen the war, do it as quickly as we can. And I just want to say one other thing.

MARTIN: Please.

RICE: This is not the fault of the Russian people. And I ache for them, which, for 30 years, they have come out of their isolation³² - the ability to travel, the ability to go to school in California and in London and in Boston. And this is a horrible time for them, too. And my greatest hope is that when this is over - and God willing, it will be over - that Vladimir Putin does not think he can continue to be president of Russia because who can imagine Vladimir Putin ever again walking into No. 10 Downing Street or into the White House? His is an isolated³³ Russia. And once we have hopefully helped Ukraine save an independent Ukraine, we have to turn to the question of, what is Russia's future?

FADEL: That's our co-host, Rachel Martin, speaking to former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. She's now the director of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 maternity   

n.母性，母道，妇产科病房；adj.孕妇的，母性的

参考例句：

• Women workers are entitled to maternity leave with full pay.女工产假期间工资照发。
• Trainee nurses have to work for some weeks in maternity.受训的护士必须在产科病房工作数周。

3 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

4 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

5 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

6 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

7 subjugate   

v.征服；抑制

参考例句：

• Imperialism has not been able to subjugate China.帝国主义不能征服中国。
• After having been subjugated to ambition,your maternal instincts are at last starting to assert themselves.你那被雄心壮志压制已久的母性本能终于开始展现出来。

8 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

9 fatigues   

n.疲劳( fatigue的名词复数 )；杂役；厌倦；（士兵穿的）工作服

参考例句：

• The patient fatigues easily. 病人容易疲劳。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Instead of training the men were put on fatigues/fatigue duty. 那些士兵没有接受训练，而是派去做杂务。 来自辞典例句

10 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

11 submission   

n.服从，投降；温顺，谦虚；提出

参考例句：

• The defeated general showed his submission by giving up his sword.战败将军缴剑表示投降。
• No enemy can frighten us into submission.任何敌人的恐吓都不能使我们屈服。

12 undertaking   

n.保证，许诺，事业

参考例句：

• He gave her an undertaking that he would pay the money back with in a year.他向她做了一年内还钱的保证。
• He is too timid to venture upon an undertaking.他太胆小，不敢从事任何事业。

13 defensive   

adj.防御的；防卫的；防守的

参考例句：

• Their questions about the money put her on the defensive.他们问到钱的问题，使她警觉起来。
• The Government hastily organized defensive measures against the raids.政府急忙布置了防卫措施抵御空袭。

14 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

15 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

16 munitions   

n.军火，弹药；v.供应…军需品

参考例句：

• The army used precision-guided munitions to blow up enemy targets.军队用精确瞄准的枪炮炸掉敌方目标。
• He rose [made a career for himself] by dealing in munitions.他是靠贩卖军火发迹的。

17 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

18 infamous   

adj.声名狼藉的，臭名昭著的，邪恶的

参考例句：

• He was infamous for his anti-feminist attitudes.他因反对女性主义而声名狼藉。
• I was shocked by her infamous behaviour.她的无耻行径令我震惊。

19 withholding   

扣缴税款

参考例句：

• She was accused of withholding information from the police. 她被指控对警方知情不报。
• The judge suspected the witness was withholding information. 法官怀疑见证人在隐瞒情况。

20 investigation   

n.调查，调查研究

参考例句：

• In an investigation,a new fact became known, which told against him.在调查中新发现了一件对他不利的事实。
• He drew the conclusion by building on his own investigation.他根据自己的调查研究作出结论。

21 lethal   

adj.致死的；毁灭性的

参考例句：

• A hammer can be a lethal weapon.铁锤可以是致命的武器。
• She took a lethal amount of poison and died.她服了致命剂量的毒药死了。

22 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

23 javelins   

n.标枪( javelin的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The heavy infantry blocks moved forward, throwing javelins just before the clash. 在正面交火之前，庞大的兵团会整体向前移动并投掷标枪。 来自互联网
• Elite mercenaries, originally from Aragon, armed with javelins and light armour. 加泰罗尼亚标枪兵为精锐雇佣部队，最初来自阿拉贡，装备标枪和轻甲。 来自互联网

24 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

25 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

26 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

27 overthrowing   

v.打倒，推翻( overthrow的现在分词 )；使终止

参考例句：

• They succeeded in overthrowing the fascist dictatorship. 他们成功推翻了法西斯独裁统治。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I always delight in overthrowing those kinds of schemes. 我一向喜欢戳穿人家的诡计。 来自辞典例句

28 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

29 bind   

vt.捆，包扎；装订；约束；使凝固；vi.变硬

参考例句：

• I will let the waiter bind up the parcel for you.我让服务生帮你把包裹包起来。
• He wants a shirt that does not bind him.他要一件不使他觉得过紧的衬衫。

30 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

31 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

32 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

33 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。