美国国家公共电台 NPR--Fed policymakers will have much to discuss at their 2-day meeting

Fed policymakers will have much to discuss at their 2-day meeting

Transcript¹

When the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, the big question will be how much the Fed will raise rates to tame inflation. NPR's A Martinez asks David Wessel of the Brookings Institution.

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

Today, Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day meeting. They're likely to raise interest rates as we deal with record inflation, labor² shortages and rising energy prices. For more insight on this, we turn to David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center of the Brookings Institution. David, so how do you think this meeting is going to go?

DAVID WESSEL: Good morning, A. Well, I think this meeting is a milestone³ in a couple of respects. First, Fed officials are meeting in person at their Washington headquarters for the first time in more than two years. And second, as you said, the Fed has been holding short-term interest rates at zero since the pandemic began. And tomorrow, they're likely to announce a quarter-point increase in interest rates, which will be the beginning of a series of rate increases aimed at slowing the economy a little bit to bring inflation down. The big question really now is, how far and how fast will the Fed raise interest rates? And we'll be looking to get some clues from that tomorrow when Fed officials issue a new set of economic projections⁴ and, importantly, we hear Fed Chair Jay Powell at his press conference.

MARTINEZ: Is this all too little, too late though?

WESSEL: Well, look, the Fed is definitely disappointed and surprised that inflation is as virulent⁵ as it is - 7.9 percent increase in consumer prices in the last year. If it had to do over again, I think it probably would have made this interest rate increase last year. The question really is, how far will it have to take interest rates to break the back of inflation - it surely is not going to get to its 2% target this year - and will it push the economy into recession in order to beat back inflation?

MARTINEZ: What about the ripple⁶ effects of Russia's war on Ukraine - rising prices for energy, food? I mean, the financial market turbulence⁷ - how has that complicated the Fed's job?

WESSEL: Well, quite a bit. Look, when the pandemic hit, the Fed pushed the gas pedal to the floor by cutting short-term rates to zero and then turbo-charged that by buying $5 trillion in bonds to push down longer-term interest rates, like the ones we pay on mortgages. Then, as the economy grew strongly last year, the unemployment rate fell, the Fed decided⁸ it was time to turn off the turbochargers and begin to pull its foot off the gas pedal. And then came Ukraine - higher energy prices. That produces a really ugly mix. It means the economy will grow more slowly, but it also means we'll have more inflation.

And as if that weren't enough, the Fed had been hoping that global supply chains would return to normal soon, maybe relieving some of the upward pressure on prices. But now China is locking down Shenzhen, the big industrial hub there where Apple iPhones and other products are made for export to the U.S., and that's likely to keep prices rising for a while. So it's a tough mix.

MARTINEZ: Yeah. And, David, you know, in the past, rising oil prices have led to a recession in the U.S. So how likely is that this time?

WESSEL: Well, look, the risks have definitely risen. Economists⁹ at Goldman Sachs said the other day that they put the odds¹⁰ of a recession at 35%. That's up from 10% last year. And I was talking to some of my colleagues in the Brookings Economic Studies Department the other day about this, and several of them put the odds at 50-50 or even a little higher.

I mean, the Fed has to worry about raising rates too little and failing in its quest for price stability and raising rates too much as the economy slows and inadvertently triggering a recession. But the U.S. economy has a lot of momentum¹¹ now. The job market is strong. Consumers have been spending readily, and it isn't as vulnerable to oil price increases as it was in the 1970s.

MARTINEZ: One more thing quickly. I know President Biden's trying to fill three vacancies¹² on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board. One of his nominee's in trouble. What's the latest on that?

WESSEL: Right. The president nominated Sarah Bloom Raskin to be vice¹³ chair of the Fed for bank supervision¹⁴. She ran into implacable Republican opposition¹⁵. And yesterday, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin said he'd oppose her because of comments she's made in the past about using the Fed to fight climate change. I expect she'll pull out, and that'll clear the way for confirmation¹⁶ of the other two Biden nominees¹⁷ and for confirmation of Jay Powell for a second term as Fed chair.

MARTINEZ: That's Dave Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal¹⁸ and Monetary¹⁹ Policy at the Brookings Institution. David, thanks.

WESSEL: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

3 milestone   

n.里程碑；划时代的事件

参考例句：

• The film proved to be a milestone in the history of cinema.事实证明这部影片是电影史上的一个里程碑。
• I think this is a very important milestone in the relations between our two countries.我认为这是我们两国关系中一个十分重要的里程碑。

4 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

5 virulent   

adj.有毒的，有恶意的，充满敌意的

参考例句：

• She is very virulent about her former employer.她对她过去的老板恨之入骨。
• I stood up for her despite the virulent criticism.尽管她遭到恶毒的批评，我还是维护她。

6 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

7 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

8 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

11 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

12 vacancies   

n.空房间( vacancy的名词复数 )；空虚；空白；空缺

参考例句：

• job vacancies 职位空缺
• The sign outside the motel said \"No Vacancies\". 汽车旅馆外的招牌显示“客满”。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

14 supervision   

n.监督，管理

参考例句：

• The work was done under my supervision.这项工作是在我的监督之下完成的。
• The old man's will was executed under the personal supervision of the lawyer.老人的遗嘱是在律师的亲自监督下执行的。

15 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

16 confirmation   

n.证实，确认，批准

参考例句：

• We are waiting for confirmation of the news.我们正在等待证实那个消息。
• We need confirmation in writing before we can send your order out.给你们发送订购的货物之前，我们需要书面确认。

17 nominees   

n.被提名者，被任命者( nominee的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She's one of the nominees. 她是被提名者之一。 来自超越目标英语 第2册
• A startling number of his nominees for senior positions have imploded. 他所提名的高级官员被否决的数目令人震惊。 来自互联网

18 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

19 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。