How will new partisan redistricting maps affect this year's midterm elections?

How will new partisan¹ redistricting maps affect this year's midterm elections?

Transcript²

NPR's Rachel Martin talks to Michael Li, senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice, about the current redistricting cycle, which he calls "one of the most aggressive in the country's history."

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

It is an election year. And the battle lines are being drawn³. In Maryland, Republican Governor Larry Hogan yesterday approved a new voting map, but only after a judge struck down what she called an extreme gerrymander by Democrats⁴. In New York, an appeals court kept a new map temporarily in place after a lower court said it was illegally drawn to benefit Democrats. And in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Republicans lost battles last month when the Supreme⁵ Court rejected appeals over maps that were seen as favorable to Democrats. Michael Li is a redistricting expert at the Brennan Center for Justice. I asked him what is behind all the map fights?

MICHAEL LI: What is unusual this decade are a couple of things. One is that there's so much litigation so late in the cycle. And that really has to do with the fact that redistricting got started later this cycle than normal because of the delays in the census⁶ data because of the pandemic. But also, you're seeing more action in state court. And that is in part because in 2019, the Supreme Court said that federal courts could not hear partisan gerrymandering claims. So if you have a partisan gerrymandering claim, you have to bring it into state court. And so a lot of the action this decade has been in state court instead of federal court. And that's likewise, I think, true when you're talking about racial discrimination because the federal courts have not been as good on policing racial discrimination either.

MARTIN: So what are the consequences of all these cases being heard at the state level?

LI: Unfortunately, the fact that people are (laughter) winning in state courts has caused the losers in state courts to turn again to the federal courts to try to undo⁷ some of those state court judgments⁸ and to argue, for example, when it comes to congressional redistricting, that state courts have no power over congressional redistricting, which is a very strange position. But that is the argument that Republicans are making in North Carolina even as they're running district court in New York.

MARTIN: When you look at the country as a whole, has either party gained a particular advantage when it comes to the upcoming midterms through redistricting?

LI: It does seem overall that Democrats have not done as badly as many people thought that they would. And Democrats, in fact, have been fairly aggressive at doing their own gerrymandering in states like New York and Illinois to sort of offset⁹ Republican gerrymandering. Republicans, likewise, have gerrymandered really defensively. They didn't go out and target any more Democratic incumbents¹⁰. Instead, they tried to shore up what they had already, which is a disproportionate share of seats in states like Texas and Georgia, in order to guard against demographic change and against political shifts that in recent years have not favored Republicans. And so overall, the parties, in some ways, are fighting to a draw. But, you know, they're really, in some ways, playing very different games.

MARTIN: What do you do when the congressional map has been thrown out by a judge and you're just months away from the election?

LI: So there are ways that you can sort of ensure that there are fair maps in place. But it's also getting very late in the cycle. And at least from the Supreme Court, the sense seems to be that, you know, it may be too late. The Supreme Court put on hold a redrawing of Alabama's congressional map while that case is on appeal, finding that it was too close to the election and even though it was several months away and there arguably was still time to redraw the map. And so effectively, at least the signal from the Supreme Court is to federal courts that maybe the train has left the station and that the maps that we have in place now, even if they ultimately are found to be discriminatory, are the ones that we should use for 2022, and that any fights will play out and result in changes for 2024. And we already saw that in Georgia, where a federal court said that Georgia's congressional map likely violated the Voting Rights Act. But there wasn't enough time to change it for 2022.

MARTIN: So if we all agree that gerrymandering is bad, what is the solution? I mean, I know some states use independent commissions. Do those work?

LI: So the process in those states has played out really well. Michigan last decade had maps drawn by the legislature. They were very aggressive, pro-Republican gerrymanders. Michigan voters created an independent commission to draw maps going forward. This decade, that commission has produced maps that are among the fairest in the country in terms of partisan balance and in terms of how racial and ethnic¹¹ minorities are treated. And so that seems to be a powerful way forward. Congress at times has considered requiring every state to use independent commissions to draw congressional maps. It has that power under the Constitution to require that. But that legislation has not yet passed. There is so much at stake in redistricting that every decade, millions of dollars gets poured into trying to control legislatures, trying to control the process, trying to manipulate the process. And every decade, we have to fight this in court. And so after this cycle, which has been some - one of the most aggressive in the country's history, both by Democrats and by Republicans, I think it's really time to take a hard look and see if we can do this better.

MARTIN: Michael Li is senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice. Thank you so much. We appreciate it.

LI: Thanks for having me.

1 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

4 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

6 census   

n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查

参考例句：

• A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
• The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。

7 undo   

vt.解开，松开；取消，撤销

参考例句：

• His pride will undo him some day.他的傲慢总有一天会毁了他。
• I managed secretly to undo a corner of the parcel.我悄悄地设法解开了包裹的一角。

8 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

9 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

10 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

11 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。