EU considers a ban on Russian coal imports. Will that help to deescalate the war?

EU considers a ban on Russian coal imports. Will that help to deescalate the war?

NPR's A Martinez talks to Henning Gloystein of the Eurasia Group, about the European Union considering a ban on Russian coal imports.

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

The European Union is considering banning Russian coal imports. Europe heavily relies on Russian energy sources, but after the atrocities² reported in the Ukrainian town of Bucha, the president of the European Union called for new economic penalties to further pressure Vladimir Putin. Will that pressure, though, be enough?

Let's put that question to Henning Gloystein. He's the director of energy, climate and resources at the Eurasia Group and joins us now from the U.K. Henning, let's start off with this. If the EU does indeed ban Russian coal imports, how much does that hurt Vladimir Putin?

HENNING GLOYSTEIN: So that does actually hurt Russia quite a lot. Russia is a major exporter of coal, and Europe is one of the biggest buyers of Russian coal. So it would hurt Putin where it matters, in his treasury³. And from the European side, it's doable. Coal is largely used for making power and for making steel. And there are alternative supplies, including Colombia and South America and the U.S., Canada, South Africa. So this is doable. It wouldn't cause supply disruptions at this stage. It would just cause higher prices, which the EU sees as a cost that it is prepared to take at this stage.

MARTINEZ: But if Russia - if the EU, or Europe, does go to other sources, I mean, that's a lot, isn't it, to pay for the shipping⁴ to go from, say, Indonesia to Australia or maybe even the U.S.?

GLOYSTEIN: Yeah, yeah. I mean, the cost of coal - I mean, European coal costs have already gone through the roof. They've increased - they haven't been this high since - I don't know, since 10, 15 years. So that is the cost of decoupling from Russia. But that is considered doable. You can also, actually, in Europe, sell this - at least try and sell this as a green move, to say, like, you know, we're going to try and cut off from Russian coal and not replace it with other coal, use alternative cleaner fuels. So this is actually fairly a popular choice, and it is seen as feasible because there are many alternatives, unlike in natural gas, where Europe is connected to the Russian pipelines⁵. And of course, gas is used for much more than just power. It's used for making fertilizer and making and producing heat in winter. So that's seen as a much more drastic step, which Europe at this stage isn't willing to do yet.

MARTINEZ: Yeah, and that's what I was going to ask you about, because I was wondering, why start with coal, when maybe they could go in other directions? But it's a matter of reliance, right? I mean, they can - you said it's doable to get off of coal right now but maybe not gas.

GLOYSTEIN: Yeah, exactly. So there's two things about this escalation⁶. So the EU, on one side, wants to be able to keep escalating⁷ their sanctions. So if they went in all-in now and sanctioned absolutely everything, including oil and natural gas, and then the situation in Ukraine worsens still, then what do they do, beyond going to war, which they have made very clear they don't want to do? Whereas if they do coal now and the situation gets worse in Ukraine, still they can go to oil, which is also seen as barely doable but still doable without huge energy sanctioning at home, whereas natural gas - if Europe does that, it will cause a, you know, rationing⁸ of energy at home, of households, of industry. It'd cause a recession. And then, you know, beyond that, Europe can't do very much.

And then there's a bit of a fear that if you go all-out from Europe to sanction everything in Russia, that that won't actually de-escalate¹, that it would escalate instead, because then Putin knows that he doesn't have much time for his war left because he's going to run out of cash within the next year or two, so that one of the only options he might see available to him would be to actually escalate further and lash⁹ out, trying to win a really brutal¹⁰ victory really fast. And then again, the EU's back to stage one and see what - you know, what do you do? So that is the reason why they're wanting to start with coal first and then try to escalate further if they have to.

MARTINEZ: So you said it definitely would hurt Vladimir Putin to eliminate Russian coal, and you said it's doable for Europe, but it doesn't sound like it would be something that could get him to de-escalate his war in Ukraine.

GLOYSTEIN: Yeah, this is one of the problems, of course. These are measures that, yeah, for sure, they hurt, but we've seen with other sanction measures in the past in other countries that they don't really tend to have the desired effect, at least not in the short term. It's still seen as important, though, because it does deprive Russia from important money that they could otherwise use. And at this stage, it - you know, it causes pain in Europe, but it is doable. But you're right to point out, it's, like, you know, if it's not going to help to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine, why not do something stronger now or why not try and do something totally different? So there are some critics about the steps. Absolutely.

MARTINEZ: Yeah. That - it sounds like it would be natural gas and oil. That sounds like that could be the hammer that could really hurt Russia.

GLOYSTEIN: Yeah, absolutely. So the next step, if the situation gets worse in Ukraine, would be oil. That is still seen as somehow doable - really difficult, but doable because there are alternative oil supplies. This is also why you're seeing a renewed attempt to end the sanctions, U.S. sanctions, on Iran, because that Iranian oil would be really convenient to replace Russian oil, maybe Venezuela as well. U.S. shale¹¹ drillers could come in. So there are other alt suppliers around there, but that would cause huge economic damage already. But the big gun in Europe would be gas. And that is sort of the last step that the European Union - sort of the last bullet they want to have in their sanction gun to be able to fire at Russia if things get really seriously worse from here, which is very possible, sadly. And that's the sad situation we're in and a little bit scary, as well, A.

MARTINEZ: Yeah. And Lithuania just said it will no longer use Russian natural gas. I'm wondering, though, Henning, how much of this do you think maybe hinges on the calendar? It's getting warmer in Europe, so maybe you can squeeze Russia on energy through the summer. But when the winter comes back, is that going to be enough time for Europe to find other options where they won't ever need to rely on Russia?

GLOYSTEIN: That is exactly the point. So it's - we've just ended winter here, so heating demand is down. And in fact, Europe's reliance on Russian gas is really skewed towards the winter, towards needing that natural gas for heating, and the reliance during summer is much lower, so you can replenish¹² your inventories¹³. And then by September, October this year, you can hope that there's going to be a mild winter. But if all the Russian gas stops, make no mistake, there will be energy rationing of households, of industry. There will be a recession. And that would last right through to next year into 2023. Long term, you can replace everything. But this year or next, you can't fully¹⁴ replace all of Russian gas. Then that would cause huge damage in Europe as much as it would, of course, damage Russia as well. But we might get there if things don't get better.

MARTINEZ: Henning Gloystein with the Eurasia Group. Henning, thanks.

GLOYSTEIN: Thank you.

1 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

2 atrocities   

n.邪恶，暴行( atrocity的名词复数 )；滔天大罪

参考例句：

• They were guilty of the most barbarous and inhuman atrocities. 他们犯有最野蛮、最灭绝人性的残暴罪行。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The enemy's atrocities made one boil with anger. 敌人的暴行令人发指。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

3 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

4 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

5 pipelines   

管道( pipeline的名词复数 )； 输油管道； 在考虑（或规划、准备） 中； 在酿中

参考例句：

• The oil is carried to the oil refinery by pipelines. 石油通过输油管输送到炼油厂。
• The oil carried in pipelines. 石油用管道输送。

6 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

7 escalating   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句

8 rationing   

n.定量供应

参考例句：

• Wartime austerities included food rationing and shortage of fuel. 战时的艰苦包括食物配给和燃料短缺。
• Food rationing was abolished in that country long ago. 那个国家早就取消了粮食配给制。

9 lash   

v.系牢；鞭打；猛烈抨击；n.鞭打；眼睫毛

参考例句：

• He received a lash of her hand on his cheek.他突然被她打了一记耳光。
• With a lash of its tail the tiger leaped at her.老虎把尾巴一甩朝她扑过来。

10 brutal   

adj.残忍的，野蛮的，不讲理的

参考例句：

• She has to face the brutal reality.她不得不去面对冷酷的现实。
• They're brutal people behind their civilised veneer.他们表面上温文有礼，骨子里却是野蛮残忍。

11 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。

12 replenish   

vt.补充；(把…)装满；(再)填满

参考例句：

• I always replenish my food supply before it is depleted.我总是在我的食物吃完之前加以补充。
• We have to import an extra 4 million tons of wheat to replenish our reserves.我们不得不额外进口四百万吨小麦以补充我们的储备。

13 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

14 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。