A closer look at some of Russia's military failures in the war on Ukraine

A closer look at some of Russia's military failures in the war on Ukraine

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez speaks with Jeff Edmonds, a researcher at the Center for Naval² Analyses, about what Russia's invasion of Ukraine says about its military power at large.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

After more than two months of war in Ukraine, Russian forces have been deeply undermined. A quarter of Russian units have been rendered combat ineffective. Now, that's according to a new intelligence assessment³ from Britain's Ministry⁴ of Defense⁵. The ministry also said it'll likely take years for Russia to reconstitute some of its most elite⁶ units, including the country's airborne forces. Now, the Pentagon is not echoing the British assessment, saying only that a number of units have been degraded from the fighting. But for some, Russian failures have altered what had been the common wisdom regarding Russia's military power with future implications for the U.S., NATO and Russia's neighbors. Jeff Edmonds is a senior analyst⁷ at the Center for Naval Analyses. He previously⁸ focused on Russia and Central Asia as a member of the National Security Council. Jeff, welcome to the show.

JEFF EDMONDS: Thanks so much for having me.

MART?NEZ: All right. The British say that a quarter of Russian units have been rendered combat ineffective. So if that's true, what does that mean for the war?

EDMONDS: I think what it means is that, you know, the operation that we're seeing now in the east, many military analysts⁹ believe that this is the last large operation that the Russian military is able to conduct right now. I mean, it really is staggering. You know, we often think that, you know, 10 to - you know, 20% to 30% losses, a unit is no longer able to conduct offensive operations, and that's where we think the Russian military is right now. And we're seeing this operation in the east, and it's really not producing a lot of results, and that's probably likely a result of these staggering losses.

MART?NEZ: So if this is a last operation for Russia, does it suggest that maybe their war in Ukraine, in particular, where it's focused in the east right now, might be something that they might dig in on?

EDMONDS: They might dig in on it, but there's a real solid chance that the Russian military will not be able to achieve even these revised strategic goals of taking over these two provinces in the east. It's not clear at all that they'll actually be able to, you know, break through and control both regions.

MART?NEZ: So it could be something that is not as prolonged as maybe we thought.

EDMONDS: It may not be. I mean, one big question is what do the Ukrainians want to do? Do they want to try to push the Russians completely out of the east? Or do they want to just push the Russians back to, you know, kind of where they were when they came into this conflict, which would actually be a staggering defeat for the Russians?

MART?NEZ: But if - OK, so Russia still has missiles and rockets. So couldn't Russia just still pummel cities in Ukraine and maybe force these places to surrender, even if its troops can't hold the ground?

EDMONDS: It can still target cities. One, it's, you know, fairly low on its reserve of long-range strike systems. And two, you know, the more the Ukrainians push them back from the cities, the less range their artillery¹⁰ has to actually target those cities. So they can't maintain that indefinitely if they're not close to the cities.

MART?NEZ: My uncle, Jeff, was a marine¹¹. And he would always say that a war is won once the boots are on the ground - won or lost. Is that something that kind of holds water in this case?

EDMONDS: I think it did. I mean, I think that - well, the Russians - you know, the - Putin and the military leadership clearly believed that they could drive into Kyiv in a couple of days, have boots on the ground, as you said, and the resistance of the military would just fall apart, and the political, you know, regime would just go away. And that's clearly not the case. And so if the Russians can't maintain boots on the ground, it's not clear what they're actually - there's - it's not clear what he can claim as a victory in this conflict.

MART?NEZ: Now, there was a brief cease-fire and an evacuation of civilians¹² in Mariupol this weekend. What do those developments maybe suggest about Russia's control of that port city?

EDMONDS: So I think - so Mariupol is important for the Russians in that it's geographically¹³ located along that strip that goes from Russia to Crimea. This - a lot of people call it the land bridge from Russia to Crimea. And so I don't think the Russians care who's actually in that city as long as they control it. And I think that's why they're allowing this - you know, this evacuation, even though previous evacuations, they've targeted those, and they've targeted civilians there. So I think that, you know, in a real sense, the Russians just want to hold on geographically to the city and have little concern for who's inside of it.

MART?NEZ: If Vladimir Putin feels that his strength is being questioned as a result of, you know, these recent military failures and in traditional war fighting, I mean, how significant, then, do you think is the threat, maybe as an act of desperation, that he might escalate¹⁴ to chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons?

EDMONDS: So I don't think he's going to use - I mean, he might use chemical and biological weapons in this conflict in order to, like, clear areas or clear parts of a city. We haven't - I don't think we've seen that or verified that yet. I don't think he's going to use a nuclear weapon. I do think a real danger here is that if he continues to lose, he might try to escalate this into a Russia-NATO kind of war. And the point there would not be to, like, invade the Baltics or invade Poland; it would just be to kind of call our bluff¹⁵ in a sense and say, hey, I know you guys don't want a Russia-NATO war. If you don't stop supporting Ukraine and take off some of these economic, you know, sanctions on the Russian economy, I'm going to turn this into the very thing that you don't want.

MART?NEZ: But he'd have to. Wouldn't he have to invade a NATO territory to do that?

EDMONDS: Not really. Not really. I think what he could do is, say, a long-range strike with some of these missiles into, say, Poland, for example. And he could claim that, well, I'm just targeting weapons shipments that are inbound to Ukraine. And so he's literally¹⁶ - you know, he's attacking a NATO partner, but not, you know, a big ground war, say.

MART?NEZ: Yeah. But it still would be crossing a line at that point.

EDMONDS: It would definitely be crossing a line. And, you know, any strike into a NATO country would definitely warrant an Article 5 response. And that's what he would be looking for.

MART?NEZ: One last thing - I mean, with this potential weakened military, what are the implications for Vladimir Putin's leadership and his hold on Russia?

EDMONDS: It's not clear. I think, that, you know, the truth of the conflict is going to eventually come out, and I think it will eventually weaken his position. But for right now, he actually has a fair amount of domestic support for this.

MART?NEZ: Jeff Edmonds is senior analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses. Jeff, thanks a lot.

EDMONDS: Thanks so much.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 naval   

adj.海军的，军舰的，船的

参考例句：

• He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
• The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。

3 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

4 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

5 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

6 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

7 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

8 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

9 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

10 artillery   

n.(军)火炮，大炮；炮兵(部队)

参考例句：

• This is a heavy artillery piece.这是一门重炮。
• The artillery has more firepower than the infantry.炮兵火力比步兵大。

11 marine   

adj.海的；海生的；航海的；海事的；n.水兵

参考例句：

• Marine creatures are those which live in the sea. 海洋生物是生存在海里的生物。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

12 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

13 geographically   

adv.地理学上，在地理上，地理方面

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe. 从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。 来自辞典例句
• All these events, however geographically remote, urgently affected Western financial centers. 所有这些事件，无论发生在地理上如何遥远的地方，都对西方金融中心产生紧迫的影响。 来自名作英译部分

14 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

15 bluff   

v.虚张声势，用假象骗人；n.虚张声势，欺骗

参考例句：

• His threats are merely bluff.他的威胁仅仅是虚张声势。
• John is a deep card.No one can bluff him easily.约翰是个机灵鬼。谁也不容易欺骗他。

16 literally   

adv.照字面意义，逐字地；确实

参考例句：

• He translated the passage literally.他逐字逐句地翻译这段文字。
• Sometimes she would not sit down till she was literally faint.有时候，她不走到真正要昏厥了，决不肯坐下来。