An unusually tight job market has a potential downside for the broader economy

An unusually tight job market has a potential downside for the broader economy

Transcript¹

The Labor² Department reports on monthly job gains for April Friday morning. The month began with a record number of job openings, which is good for prospective³ employees.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

The job market continues to hum month after month. This morning, we learned that employers added 428,000 jobs in April, exactly the same as the revised number from March. There are still a record number of job openings and not enough people to fill them. And that means lots of opportunities for people looking for work. But does it have a potential downside for the broader economy? NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. Scott, all right, just how tight is that job market?

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE⁴: Good morning, A. It's very tight. The unemployment rate in April was just 3.6%, the same as the month before. That matches the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. And this was the 12th month in a row that employers have added more than 400,000 jobs, which is a really remarkable⁵ run. They'd probably have added more jobs if they could find more workers. Employers began the month of April with well over 11 million job openings. And many of those are still vacant. Here's how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described the job market earlier this week.

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JEROME POWELL: For people who are out of work and looking, there are lots of job opportunities. Wages are moving up at rates that haven't been seen in quite a long time. So it's a good time to be a worker looking to either change jobs or get a wage increase in your current job.

HORSLEY: Average hourly wages in April were up 5.5% from a year ago. Certainly, those wage gains are good for workers. But they're also a potential source of concern for the Fed.

MART?NEZ: Why would they be concerned?

HORSLEY: The Fed is worried that employers may try to offset⁶ the cost of higher wages by raising prices. And that would make inflation, which is already at a four-decade high, even worse. That's why the Fed is hoping to pour a little cold water on this sizzling job market by raising interest rates in hopes of cooling off demand. You might see some very early effects of that in the construction industry in this report. Construction companies added only 2,000 jobs last month. That's a marked slowdown from earlier months. And that may reflect the impact of rising mortgage rates, which we know they've jumped pretty sharply. They're above 5%.

The central bank is hoping to engineer what they call a soft landing here - that is, cooling off the economy gradually but without a sharp jump in unemployment or a recession. Some economists⁸ are doubtful that Powell and his colleagues can pull off that balancing act. And that's one reason you've seen these really wild swings in the stock market over the last couple of days, with the Dow soaring more than 900 points on Wednesday, only to sink more than 1,000 points yesterday.

MART?NEZ: How close, though, is the economy to replacing all the jobs that were lost during the pandemic?

HORSLEY: It's getting pretty close. You know, there were 22 million jobs lost in the spring of 2020 when the coronavirus first struck here in the U.S. As of April, the U.S. had replaced nearly 95% of those. We saw solid job gains last month in manufacturing, in bars and restaurants, in warehousing and transportation. Now, it could be that we will start to see some slowdown in hiring in the coming months. Economist⁷ Nela Richardson, who's with the payroll⁹ processing company ADP, says that wouldn't really be a surprise at this late stage of the recovery.

NELA RICHARDSON: Given that the labor market is - made such tremendous progress back towards 2019 levels, I think what we're going to see going forward is more of a normal pacing.

HORSLEY: When you talk about normal pacing, you know, in the 12 months before the pandemic, the U.S. was averaging about 200,000 new jobs a month. So we've been running at more than double that level.

MART?NEZ: Anything else jumps out about today's jobs report?

HORSLEY: This is, generally, a pretty positive report. One negative, though, is what we see in the labor force. That is the number of people working or looking for work. Over time, a growing labor force could offer a little breathing room in this very tight job market. And we did see that in February and March. But last month, the workforce¹⁰ actually shrank a bit. So that means employers are going to continue to have a hard time finding workers. And that's going to continue to put upward pressure on wages and maybe prices as well.

MART?NEZ: That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks a lot.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

3 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

6 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 payroll   

n.工资表，在职人员名单，工薪总额

参考例句：

• His yearly payroll is $1.2 million.他的年薪是120万美元。
• I can't wait to get my payroll check.我真等不及拿到我的工资单了。

10 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。