美国国家公共电台 NPR--Inflation and fears of a recession, contribute to falling financial markets

Inflation and fears of a recession, contribute to falling financial markets

Transcript¹

The sell-off in stock markets keeps getting worse as investors² grow fearful about inflation, and whether the Federal Reserve can cool prices without sparking a recession.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Wow. The S&P 500 is on the verge³ of a bear market. That's when the index drops at least 20% from its recent high. The big driver of falling stocks is inflation and now fears of a recession. We spoke⁴ earlier with NPR's David Gura.

DAVID GURA, BYLINE⁵: The latest read of the consumer price index showed inflation slowing down a tad. But the bottom line is prices are still rising faster than we've seen in decades. And what Wall Street wanted was to see a stronger sign inflation had peaked. The problem is these prices are not slowing down fast enough, which, of course, you know if you've shopped for groceries recently, bought an airline ticket. And that's fueling fears the Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates more aggressively.

Now, this is scary because, one, borrowing costs are going to rise. Mortgage rates are already higher. And two, there's a real risk this could send the economy into a deep downturn. On Thursday, the Senate confirmed Jerome Powell to a second term as Fed chair. And he starts that term, Steve, at a time when investors are really unsure the Fed will be able to raise rates without sparking a recession.

INSKEEP: Does that explain why the numbers are down on the markets?

GURA: Yeah. Even market veterans have been taken aback by the volatility⁶. We've seen the Dow gain more than a thousand points one day and lose more than a thousand points the next. And then there's fear. You can see it in a volatility index called the VIX, also known as the fear index. It's now almost double what it was at the beginning of the year. Now, what we're waiting for is to see if the medicine that the Fed has started to administer is working. It's done two rate hikes, and the Fed signaled it's likely to do two more of half a percentage point each at its next two meetings. We're not going to know if it's working right away. We're in this period when Wall Street also has to wait to see if the Fed is going to do anything unexpected. Its next meeting is not until June 14, which feels like an eternity⁷ here.

Eric Freedman is the chief investment officer of U.S. Bank's asset management group.

ERIC FREEDMAN: We have a month-plus of what's called a paucity⁸ of conversations - definitive⁹ conversations and decisions from Fed - but perhaps more chatter¹⁰.

GURA: Freedman says markets will react to that chatter, to speeches from Fed officials and to each new piece of economic data. So, Steve, that volatility is not going to go away anytime soon.

INSKEEP: Can you put market declines in context here? How bad is it?

GURA: Well, we've gone from some pretty incredible gains to these new lows. Remember, the S&P 500 hit a record high in January. So this is a pretty big drop. What also makes this downturn different is the Fed has not aggressively raised interest rates like this in years, and both stocks and bonds are selling off simultaneously¹¹. That is usually not what happens. U.S. Treasuries¹² are seen as safe havens¹³. And investors turn to them in times of turmoil¹⁴. Eric Freedman says, we haven't seen this happen in a calendar year in at least 46 years. I'll add that crypto is also getting crushed - Bitcoin down about 35% since the start of the year.

INSKEEP: Let's talk about another source of volatility here - Elon Musk¹⁵, who is planning to buy Twitter or says he is but now says the deal is on hold. What's going on?

GURA: Well, this morning he tweeted that the deal is on pause because he wants to make sure spam and fake accounts make up less than 5% of Twitter's users. That's what Twitter claims. And the reason this matters is fake accounts are not going to bring in advertising¹⁶ dollars. And that is Twitter's primary source of revenue. This could also be a way for Musk to get out of the deal or at least think twice about it.

He's pledged a significant amount of his personal fortune to be able to make the deal. And Twitter's a company that has struggled to make a profit. Of course, Elon Musk is known to be unpredictable and prone¹⁷ to changing his mind about things, Steve. In a subsequent statement - a subsequent tweet - he says he is still committed to the acquisition.

INSKEEP: I know that NPR's David Gura will be telling us about the next twist and turn. David, thanks so much.

GURA: You got it.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 verge   

n.边，边缘；v.接近，濒临

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• She was on the verge of bursting into tears.她快要哭出来了。

4 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

7 eternity   

n.不朽，来世；永恒，无穷

参考例句：

• The dull play seemed to last an eternity.这场乏味的剧似乎演个没完没了。
• Finally,Ying Tai and Shan Bo could be together for all of eternity.英台和山伯终能双宿双飞，永世相随。

8 paucity   

n.小量，缺乏

参考例句：

• The paucity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果缺乏是由于干旱造成的。
• The results are often unsatisfactory because of the paucity of cells.因细胞稀少，结果常令人不满意。

9 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

10 chatter   

vi.／n.喋喋不休；短促尖叫；(牙齿)打战

参考例句：

• Her continuous chatter vexes me.她的喋喋不休使我烦透了。
• I've had enough of their continual chatter.我已厌烦了他们喋喋不休的闲谈。

11 simultaneously   

adv.同时发生地，同时进行地

参考例句：

• The radar beam can track a number of targets almost simultaneously.雷达波几乎可以同时追着多个目标。
• The Windows allow a computer user to execute multiple programs simultaneously.Windows允许计算机用户同时运行多个程序。

12 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

13 havens   

n.港口，安全地方( haven的名词复数 )v.港口，安全地方( haven的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Your twenty havens would back out at the last minute anyhow. 你那二十个避难所到了最后一分钟也要不认帐。 来自辞典例句
• Using offshore havens to avoid taxes and investor protections. 使用海面的港口避免税和投资者保护。 来自互联网

14 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

15 musk   

n.麝香, 能发出麝香的各种各样的植物，香猫

参考例句：

• Musk is used for perfume and stimulant.麝香可以用作香料和兴奋剂。
• She scented her clothes with musk.她用麝香使衣服充满了香味。

16 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

17 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。