美国国家公共电台 NPR--With Finland poised to join NATO, how will Russia respond?

With Finland poised¹ to join NATO, how will Russia respond?

Transcript²

NRP's Steve Inskeep talks to Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, about how Russia may react to a new NATO nation on its border.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

How does Russia respond to a new NATO nation on its border? Finland said this week it wants in to the North Atlantic Alliance. NATO nations are likely to say yes quickly. All of this is responding to Russia's attack on Ukraine, which President Vladimir Putin promoted as a way to push back NATO, among other things.

Let's discuss this with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, who has worked in the office of the Director of National Intelligence and is now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Good morning.

ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR: Good morning.

INSKEEP: I guess I should begin by asking what can Russia do to Finland, given that it's unhappy?

KENDALL-TAYLOR: Well, I think we should underscore that the most vulnerable time for Finland would be the time between when they formally submit their NATO application and the time that it would take for all 30 member states to have to ratify³ that in their...

INSKEEP: Yeah.

KENDALL-TAYLOR: ...Legislatures. I think, you know, the key question everyone wants to know is whether or not Russia will use military force. As you just said, that was the story of Ukraine, but it was also the story of Georgia in 2008 when Russia invaded there to prevent Georgia's move towards NATO. But this time, I don't expect that. I think that Russia is too bogged⁴ down with its war in Ukraine. And I think that's exactly the calculus⁵ that Finland and Sweden have, that they see that Russia is distracted, and it gives them this window to make a move. So you know, I think the most likely response would be something more along the lines of cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns or other occasional airspace violations⁶. But...

INSKEEP: Yeah. That sounds more like...

KENDALL-TAYLOR: ...Probably not a lot.

INSKEEP: Yeah, that sounds more like harassment⁷ than a serious threat to Finland.

KENDALL-TAYLOR: Yeah, I think that's right.

INSKEEP: However, there has been talk of Russia possibly cutting gas supplies to Finland. Is that a serious threat?

KENDALL-TAYLOR: Well, we've heard that allegation in press, and we know that Russia's not afraid to threaten to use gas as a weapon. And it was even just yesterday that Germany accused Russia of using gas as a weapon after it reduced deliveries there. So it is definitely plausible⁸. I think, for me, the question would be how impactful that would be for Finland. So Finland does get a majority of its natural gas from Russia, but gas only makes up a very small proportion of the country's energy mix. So my understanding is it wouldn't be terribly painful.

INSKEEP: A strange question to ask, I suppose, given the rhetoric⁹ of the last several months, but I'm going to ask it. Does Vladimir Putin really care about NATO expansion? And here's why I say this. He gave NATO expansion as a reason for invading Ukraine, but he seemed to have all these other reasons for invading Ukraine about history and Ukraine being a part of Russia and his idea of Russia. Does he even care if Finland joins NATO really?

KENDALL-TAYLOR: Yeah, I do think he cares. I mean, for a very long time - Finland has been neutral for 80 years. I think both the Finns and the Russians view that neutrality as one reason why they've had such a stable and pragmatic relationship. So this is really a sea change, and I would expect that this will lead to a fundamental change in that historically very stable Russia-Finnish relationship. And, you know, it could lead to things like the greater militarization along that border there. So it will be consequential¹⁰. And for Putin, it does underscore this idea, this fear that he has long held that Russia is being encircled by NATO. And so it will amplify¹¹ those concerns.

INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about years to come then. As that border gets more militarized, as the relationship maybe gets more and more tense, Finland becomes a NATO nation, which means the U.S. would be obliged to defend it if it were attacked. Does this, at least a little bit, increase the risk that the United States might have to go to war sometime?

KENDALL-TAYLOR: Well, we know that - you know, that when Putin looks at NATO, he views it as a credible¹² military force. He understands that Russia cannot compete with NATO. And it's one of the reasons why Putin, too, has been so reticent¹³ to risk a direct military confrontation¹⁴ in Ukraine with NATO. And so, you know, does it increase the risk? I would say so just because we will see kind of NATO's infrastructure¹⁵ closer to Russia's border. If we do see things like the militarization of that border, it raises the risk of accidents that could unintentionally spiral into conflict. And I think that would be the most likely pathway, rather than a Russia that feels it would want to take on NATO as an adversary¹⁶.

INSKEEP: We just got about 20 seconds here, but I'll ask this also. If Putin wanted to widen this conflict somehow, what is a way anywhere in the world that he realistically could?

KENDALL-TAYLOR: I think cyber is the most likely way at this point. That's the kind of shoe that hasn't dropped and something that many of us expected would come. So I think that would be the most likely. If he feels that he wants to widen the conflict, I - my sense is that he will still come for the United States and potentially Europe using those cyber tools.

INSKEEP: Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. This was really clear and informative¹⁷. Thank you so much.

KENDALL-TAYLOR: Thank you.

1 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 ratify   

v.批准，认可，追认

参考例句：

• The heads of two governments met to ratify the peace treaty.两国政府首脑会晤批准和平条约。
• The agreement have to be ratify by the board.该协议必须由董事会批准。

4 bogged   

adj.陷于泥沼的v.（使）陷入泥沼， （使）陷入困境( bog的过去式和过去分词 )；妨碍，阻碍

参考例句：

• The professor bogged down in the middle of his speech. 教授的演讲只说了一半便讲不下去了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The tractor is bogged down in the mud. 拖拉机陷入了泥沼。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 calculus   

n.微积分；结石

参考例句：

• This is a problem where calculus won't help at all.对于这一题，微积分一点也用不上。
• After studying differential calculus you will be able to solve these mathematical problems.学了微积分之后，你们就能够解这些数学题了。

6 violations   

违反( violation的名词复数 )； 冒犯； 违反（行为、事例）； 强奸

参考例句：

• This is one of the commonest traffic violations. 这是常见的违反交通规则之例。
• These violations of the code must cease forthwith. 这些违犯法规的行为必须立即停止。

7 harassment   

n.骚扰，扰乱，烦恼，烦乱

参考例句：

• She often got telephone harassment at night these days.这些天她经常在夜晚受到电话骚扰。
• The company prohibits any form of harassment.公司禁止任何形式的骚扰行为。

8 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

9 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

10 consequential   

adj.作为结果的，间接的；重要的

参考例句：

• She was injured and suffered a consequential loss of earnings.她受了伤因而收入受损。
• This new transformation is at least as consequential as that one was.这一新的转变至少和那次一样重要。

11 amplify   

vt.放大，增强；详述，详加解说

参考例句：

• The new manager wants to amplify the company.新经理想要扩大公司。
• Please amplify your remarks by giving us some examples.请举例详述你的话。

12 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

13 reticent   

adj.沉默寡言的；言不如意的

参考例句：

• He was reticent about his opinion.他有保留意见。
• He was extremely reticent about his personal life.他对自己的个人生活讳莫如深。

14 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

15 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

16 adversary   

adj.敌手，对手

参考例句：

• He saw her as his main adversary within the company.他将她视为公司中主要的对手。
• They will do anything to undermine their adversary's reputation.他们会不择手段地去损害对手的名誉。

17 informative   

adj.提供资料的，增进知识的

参考例句：

• The adverts are not very informative.这些广告并没有包含太多有用信息。
• This intriguing book is both thoughtful and informative.这本引人入胜的书既有思想性又富知识性。