美国国家公共电台 NPR--Three months of war: Russia underachieves, Ukraine overachieves

Three months of war: Russia underachieves, Ukraine overachieves

Transcript¹

KYIV, Ukraine — Ben Hodges is a retired² U.S. lieutenant³ general who visited Ukraine just days before Russia's invasion in February, when many expected a swift Russian victory.

"We were like, 'Hey, how come you guys aren't scurrying⁴ around getting ready?'" Hodges says. "And they're like, 'Well, you know, it's because we've been at war.'"

Back in 2014, Ukraine's military was no match for Russia's army when it launched its first incursion. But Ukraine has improved dramatically since then, Hodges says.

He witnessed this as commander of the U.S. Army Europe from 2014-17. The Americans sent troops to help train Ukraine's military. Now, he believes Ukraine is gaining the upper hand in this war.

"War is a test of will and it's a test of logistics," says Hodges, who's now at the Center for European Policy Analysis. "Clearly, the Ukrainians have the stronger will. And my assessment⁵ is that the logistical situation for them gets a little bit better every day, while for the Russians, it gets a little bit worse every day."

Russia invaded Ukraine three months ago, on Feb. 24. On almost every front, Russia has underachieved, while Ukraine has overachieved.

Yet both sides are now digging in, and neither appears capable of delivering a decisive blow right now. While both sides can point to successes and setbacks, there are growing signs the war could become a protracted⁶ stalemate.

Ukraine pushes back the Russians

The Ukrainian forces have excelled at playing strong defense⁷. They've forced Russian retreats from the outskirts⁸ of Kyiv, the capital and the largest city, and more recently, they pushed the Russians back from Kharkiv, the second-largest city.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has scaled back his biggest aim, at least for now, of ousting⁹ Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy and his government and effectively taking over the country.

The main Russian goal now is to seize additional territory in the east and south of Ukraine, beyond what they've controlled for the past eight years.

Even these reduced goals are straining Russia's military, says Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general who's closely monitoring the war.

"If the Russians bog¹⁰ down and they're not able to get some kind of breakthrough in the coming weeks, the best the Russians can hope for is a long, drawn-out defensive¹¹ campaign," says Ryan, the author of War Transformed.

Despite Russia's much larger army, Ukraine has neutralized¹² the Russians on almost every front.

"They've been nibbling¹³ away at the Russians. They've been corroding¹⁴ them from within rather than taking them head on," he adds. "I think the Ukrainians are going to keep doing this."

The Russians advance in the east and the south

So the prospect¹⁵ of a major Russian advance appears less and less likely. But the Russians have captured two important southern cities — Mariupol and Kherson. Their offensive in the east has gained ground, albeit¹⁶ at a high cost to both sides. Zelenskyy said recently that the heavy fighting is claiming the lives of 50 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers a day in the east.

The Russians now control an unbroken swathe of Ukrainian territory from the Donbas region in the east, to Crimea in the south.

American Stefan Korshak, who's lived in Ukraine for 25 years and covers the war for the Kyiv Post newspaper, says he's seen the Ukrainian military improve markedly in recent years.

Still, a major offensive to dislodge the Russians would be a tall order.

"They're pretty smart. They're pretty capable," he says of Ukraine's military. "But putting together a large operation, let's say, to send five brigades in an attempt to encircle and then capture the city of Kherson. On paper, maybe they're able to do it. My guess is probably. But it's a question mark."

The Ukrainians have answered many questions raised by skeptics with three months of fierce resistance.

Consider the air war. Russia has a much larger and more modern air force. Yet Ukraine says it has shot down 200 of those aircraft. Most Russian pilots now avoid Ukrainian air space and only fire their weapons long distance — from the skies over Russia or the Black Sea.

"In the last month, the occupiers have rarely flown over territory controlled by Ukraine. They're preserving their equipment," said Ukraine's Air Force spokesman, Lt. Col. Yuriy Ignat.

He says Ukraine still needs additional jet fighters from NATO countries to replace their small, aging Soviet-era planes. But NATO has declined to provide them.

The U.S. and its allies have sent Ukraine other key weapons, and Ukraine in many ways has more firepower today than when the war began. With President Biden authorizing¹⁷ a $40 billion U.S. aid package over the weekend, military and economic assistance will continue to flow.

Three months ago, Russia was widely assumed to have the resources to grind down Ukraine in an extended war. Now some think the opposite is true.

"I don't know that the Russians have enough of any of those essential ingredients to win a war of attrition," says Hodges, the former U.S. Army commander in Europe.

Still, Russia is trying to entrench¹⁸ itself in southern Ukraine. It is establishing new, pro-Russian governments. According to Russian media, Moscow is introducing the Russian ruble as the local currency and cutting Ukrainian television broadcasts in these areas.

Russia is also using its warship¹⁹ in the Black Sea to block Ukrainian exports — including wheat, corn and other agriculture products that are the foundation of Ukraine's economy.

Many of the predictions three months ago were way off the mark. Ryan, the retired Australian general, says that makes him hesitant to say what will come next.

"War is uncertain and you cannot predict the outcome," he says. "I can only go on past performance of the Ukrainians, and their past performance at the political and the military strategic level has been excellent."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

3 lieutenant   

n.陆军中尉，海军上尉；代理官员，副职官员

参考例句：

• He was promoted to be a lieutenant in the army.他被提升为陆军中尉。
• He prevailed on the lieutenant to send in a short note.他说动那个副官，递上了一张简短的便条进去。

4 scurrying   

v.急匆匆地走( scurry的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• We could hear the mice scurrying about in the walls. 我们能听见老鼠在墙里乱跑。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• We were scurrying about until the last minute before the party. 聚会开始前我们一直不停地忙忙碌碌。 来自辞典例句

5 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

6 protracted   

adj.拖延的；延长的v.拖延“protract”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争，我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

8 outskirts   

n.郊外，郊区

参考例句：

• Our car broke down on the outskirts of the city.我们的汽车在市郊出了故障。
• They mostly live on the outskirts of a town.他们大多住在近郊。

9 ousting   

驱逐( oust的现在分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• The resulting financial chaos led to the ousting of Bristol-Myers' s boss. 随后引发的财政混乱导致了百时美施贵宝的总裁下台。
• The ousting of the president has drawn widespread criticism across Latin America and the wider world. 洪都拉斯总统被驱逐时间引起拉丁美洲甚至全世界的广泛批评。

10 bog   

n.沼泽；室...陷入泥淖

参考例句：

• We were able to pass him a rope before the bog sucked him under.我们终于得以在沼泽把他吞没前把绳子扔给他。
• The path goes across an area of bog.这条小路穿过一片沼泽。

11 defensive   

adj.防御的；防卫的；防守的

参考例句：

• Their questions about the money put her on the defensive.他们问到钱的问题，使她警觉起来。
• The Government hastily organized defensive measures against the raids.政府急忙布置了防卫措施抵御空袭。

12 neutralized   

v.使失效( neutralize的过去式和过去分词 )；抵消；中和；使（一个国家）中立化

参考例句：

• Acidity in soil can be neutralized by spreading lime on it. 土壤的酸性可以通过在它上面撒石灰来中和。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• This strategy effectively neutralized what the Conservatives had hoped would be a vote-winner. 这一策略有效地冲淡了保守党希望在选举中获胜的心态。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 nibbling   

v.啃，一点一点地咬（吃）( nibble的现在分词 )；啃出（洞），一点一点咬出（洞）；慢慢减少；小口咬

参考例句：

• We sat drinking wine and nibbling olives. 我们坐在那儿，喝着葡萄酒嚼着橄榄。
• He was nibbling on the apple. 他在啃苹果。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

14 corroding   

使腐蚀，侵蚀( corrode的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• That sour nature has started corroding those metal parts. 那酸质已开始腐蚀那金属部件。
• He was driven by a corroding rage for "perfection". 他受追求“完美境界”的极端热情所驱策。

15 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

16 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

17 authorizing   

授权，批准，委托( authorize的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Letters of Marque: Take letters from a warning friendly power authorizing privateering. 私掠许可证：从某一个国家获得合法抢劫的证书。
• Formal phavee completion does not include authorizing the subsequent phavee. 阶段的正式完成不包括核准随后的阶段。

18 entrench   

v.使根深蒂固；n.壕沟；防御设施

参考例句：

• A series of measures were designed to entrench democracy and the rule of law.采取一系列措施旨在巩固民主和法制。
• These dictators have entrenched themselves politically and are difficult to move.这些独裁者在政治上已经站稳了脚跟，很难推翻他们。

19 warship   

n.军舰，战舰

参考例句：

• He is serving on a warship in the Pacific.他在太平洋海域的一艘军舰上服役。
• The warship was making towards the pier.军舰正驶向码头。