美国国家公共电台 NPR--Has military support for Ukraine from the U.S. and NATO peaked?

Has military support for Ukraine from the U.S. and NATO peaked?

Transcript¹

NPR's Rachel Martin speaks with defense² policy expert Andrew Exum about whether the U.S. and its allies will continue to endure the economic cost of supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression³.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

The Biden administration wants to give Ukraine drones, which can be armed with Hellfire missiles. If Congress approves, that would be a significant upgrade from the smaller, shorter-range drones Ukraine already has in its arsenal⁴. And it's on top of President Biden's pledge earlier this week to ship advanced rocket systems to Ukraine. But has military support for Ukraine from the U.S. and NATO peaked? Andrew Exum is a former senior Pentagon official and contributor to The Atlantic. He believes the U.S. spending on Ukraine may have hit a high water mark. He joins us this morning. Thanks for being here.

ANDREW EXUM: Yeah, happy to be here.

MARTIN: So why do you think the tolerance⁵ for this level of spending is wearing thin when it comes to the U.S. and NATO's support for Ukraine?

EXUM: Well, I think if we take a step back and we marvel⁶ at what we've done already - I mean, bear in mind, the last time I served in government, Russia invaded Syria or came to the aid of the Assad regime. And between 2015 and 2017, we went to every available means not to kill any Russians over Syria, which is, of course, where we were fighting the Islamic State at the time. Fast forward seven years later, we are - been shoveling some of our most advanced weapons systems, anti-tank weapons systems, anti-aircraft weapons systems, into Ukraine. It's really remarkable⁷ not just what the United States has done, but also what the European partners have done.

MARTIN: They clearly see the stakes as different, though. I mean, the war in Syria is egregious⁸ beyond all measure when it comes to the civilian⁹ casualties. But the U.S. and NATO's see an existential threat when it comes to...

EXUM: That's right.

MARTIN: ...Russia's incursion into Ukraine.

EXUM: Yeah, that's right. That's right. But it's not just the fact that we've been sending all these weapons to the Ukrainians. We've been almost bragging¹⁰ about them. And when you look at the European partners, I mean, I think they've almost been shamed by their national publics into sending more in the case of Germany. So it's really been remarkable what we've done so far. The war, obviously, is reaching a bit of a stalemate in the east. And both sides are finding, you know, heavy sledding at the moment. I think, from the perspective of a lot of Western policymakers, you're starting to see some fissures¹¹ in terms of how far not only the United States, but especially the European partners should go in terms of furthering this conflict, because the economic pain is really starting to hit both in the United States but also in Europe.

MARTIN: Yeah. Say more about that. Where are we seeing it?

EXUM: Well, I mean, first off, in the eurozone, inflation is up to 8.1% just this year alone. And the United States is at a four-decade high. The war in Ukraine didn't cause that. That inflation has nothing to do with, you know, China's zero-COVID policy. It has nothing to do with the efficiency of our ports on the West Coast. But it's absolutely contributing to it, right? It's an accelerant. Now, here in the United States, we've still got a lot of good things going on. And President Biden highlighted some of these in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week. We've got low unemployment, hot labor¹² market, rising wages. That's great. In Europe, they don't necessarily have that. And your leading economists¹³ predict a global recession early next year. But when I travel around the country talking to business leaders, they worry that it might come even sooner than that. So that's what's weighing on American policymakers' minds. Imagine what's weighing on European policymakers' minds, where they've also got to face energy shortages caused by the conflict in Ukraine.

MARTIN: So you worked at the Pentagon. You've worked in administrations before. How do you change messaging on this? Because, you know, you start out by saying, this is an existential threat - we must arm Ukraine in order to prevent future Russian aggression around Europe, let alone Ukraine's sovereignty. And then you say, just kidding, it's too much for us, we can't do it anymore?

EXUM: Yeah. No. I think that U.S. support for Ukraine is absolutely going to continue. But the type of support that Ukraine really needs now to win back territory, that's going to be a different type of support that we can provide. So first off, you know, declare victory. The United States and its Western partners and, primarily - let's be honest here - the Ukrainians have denied Russia their primary military objectives in this campaign. They've denied Russia control over Ukraine. But Russia's still been able to take over 20% of the country. And Russia has been able to achieve some of its secondary objectives. For the Ukrainians, they're not going to be able to settle for anything other than a return to where the borders were on 23 February. That's where they've got to settle for. From the U.S. perspective, it's just going to be a lot tougher to continue to arm the Ukrainians to get to those borders.

MARTIN: You think this ends in a negotiated settlement, even if the Ukrainians don't want it?

EXUM: I think this war has gone on for eight years and it's going to go on for many more years, but in a much more stalemated, slow process.

MARTIN: Referencing the starting point of 2014 with that Russian aggression. Andrew Exum, former Army officer, former senior Pentagon official, now a contributing writer for The Atlantic. We appreciate you. Thank you.

EXUM: Thanks so much for having me.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

3 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

4 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

5 tolerance   

n.宽容；容忍，忍受；耐药力；公差

参考例句：

• Tolerance is one of his strengths.宽容是他的一个优点。
• Human beings have limited tolerance of noise.人类对噪音的忍耐力有限。

6 marvel   

vi.(at)惊叹vt.感到惊异；n.令人惊异的事

参考例句：

• The robot is a marvel of modern engineering.机器人是现代工程技术的奇迹。
• The operation was a marvel of medical skill.这次手术是医术上的一个奇迹。

7 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

8 egregious   

adj.非常的，过分的

参考例句：

• When it comes to blatant lies,there are none more egregious than budget figures.谈到公众谎言，没有比预算数字更令人震惊的。
• What an egregious example was here!现摆着一个多么触目惊心的例子啊。

9 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

10 bragging   

v.自夸，吹嘘( brag的现在分词 )；大话

参考例句：

• He's always bragging about his prowess as a cricketer. 他总是吹嘘自己板球水平高超。 来自辞典例句
• Now you're bragging, darling. You know you don't need to brag. 这就是夸口，亲爱的。你明知道你不必吹。 来自辞典例句

11 fissures   

n.狭长裂缝或裂隙( fissure的名词复数 )；裂伤；分歧；分裂v.裂开( fissure的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Rising molten rock flows out on the ocean floor and caps the fissures, trapping the water. 上升熔岩流到海底并堵住了裂隙，结果把海水封在里面。 来自辞典例句
• The French have held two colloquia and an international symposium on rock fissures. 法国已经开了两次岩石裂缝方面的报告会和一个国际会议。 来自辞典例句

12 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

13 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》