美国国家公共电台 NPR--Former bond manager shares investing strategy that he calls strategic mediocrity

Former bond manager shares investing strategy that he calls strategic mediocrity

Transcript¹

Financial markets have been volatile² this year, leading some to figure out ways to navigate³ the risk. A former fund manager says his long-term strategy for success was to avoid winning.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Look at any index of financial markets, and you can see pretty easily this year has been bad - bad for stocks, bonds, crypto, basically everything. So is there a way to navigate the volatility⁴, or are we just along for the ride? Planet Money's Mary Childs talked to one fund manager with a strategy.

MARY CHILDS, BYLINE⁵: There's a big divide between money managers who will say investing is the same as gambling⁶ and those who won't.

Can you tell me - do you gamble at all?

BEN TROSKY: Never.

CHILDS: Really?

TROSKY: Don't play games I know I'm going to lose.

CHILDS: In the '90s, Ben Trosky was a money manager, and the game he thought he could win was buying and selling junk bonds. The way to win was to beat a benchmark, to stay above this line that is always going up and down. The line represents what the whole market is doing, the junk bond market. He's not only competing against this line but also against a whole universe of other money managers who buy and sell junk bonds, too. They all get ranked, best to worst, every day, every year, every 10 years. And Trosky knows not to care much about the short term. Short time periods of a track record are meaningless. Trosky wants to be the best over the long haul, to be in the top 10%, the top decile, at the end of 10 years. He thinks he can because he came up with a plan.

TROSKY: When I did simulations, it became very, very clear that if you consistently stay in the top third but never end up No. 1, 2 or 3, that over time you would end up in the top decile of the competitive universe.

CHILDS: In this competitive universe, Trosky never wanted to be No. 1 in a given year's rankings because, in his scenarios⁷, basically no one stayed on top because anyone in the top slot in a given year almost certainly got there by doing something reckless. They have to have taken too much risk, and they just lucked out. If they hadn't lucked out, they would have broken the most foundational rule of investing, which is to not lose money. To Trosky, it's better to take a lot of little swings all the time, measuring the risk against the potential reward, being picky, being strategic.

TROSKY: The idea of strategic mediocrity was my tongue-in-cheek title or name to put on the idea.

CHILDS: Strategic mediocrity. To do this, Trosky says he'd buy the safest junk bonds, not the riskiest⁸ stuff, and he'd do things his competitors weren't, like buying emerging market debt or pooled mortgage debt, which - and I know how this sounds - back then, it was actually less risky⁹ than it appeared. And finally, he would do enough research to understand every single thing about a company. And this is kind of textbook. It's something everyone says they do. But Trosky says he really did it.

So in the end, your strategic mediocrity, did it work?

TROSKY: It worked. You know, the Lipper survey of mutual¹⁰ funds, it was ranked the No. 1 fund for the 10 years I managed it.

CHILDS: Not just the top decile, No. 1. Not long after, in 2003, he retired¹¹. His strategic mediocrity had worked.

Mary Childs, NPR News.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

3 navigate   

v.航行，飞行；导航，领航

参考例句：

• He was the first man to navigate the Atlantic by air.他是第一个飞越大西洋的人。
• Such boats can navigate on the Nile.这种船可以在尼罗河上航行。

4 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 gambling   

n.赌博；投机

参考例句：

• They have won a lot of money through gambling.他们赌博赢了很多钱。
• The men have been gambling away all night.那些人赌了整整一夜。

7 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

8 riskiest   

冒险的，危险的( risky的最高级 )

参考例句：

• With markets lately rising, the riskiest investments are finding takers. 他说，在周期高峰时，投资者会追逐风险最高的资产。
• The riskiest subprime securitieshave almost no takers. 风险最高的次级证券几乎没有人持有。

9 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

10 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

11 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。