美国国家公共电台 NPR--Breaking down the effectiveness of the latest sanctions on Russia

Breaking down the effectiveness of the latest sanctions on Russia

Transcript¹

NPR speaks with Ian Bremmer, founder² of Eurasia Group, about another round of sanctions on Russia.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The Biden administration introduced another round of sanctions on Russia last week. Sanctions have become a Western weapon of choice to counter Russian aggression³ in Ukraine. But as the war drags on, the question remains⁴ - are sanctions working? Joining me now is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm. Good morning.

IAN BREMMER: Good morning to you.

FADEL: So when President Biden banned Russian oil and natural gas back in March, he said he wanted to deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine. And you and I are speaking more than a hundred days into Russia's war on Ukraine, with no sign that Russia's military assault is waning⁵ after rounds and rounds of U.S. and other Western sanctions. So what have these sanctions actually done?

BREMMER: Well, lots of evidence that Russian - the military assault is waning in the sense that they've pulled back from Kharkiv, they've pulled back from around Kyiv. But the sanctions aren't what have accomplished⁶ that. That's the military and the intelligence support that the West, and particularly...

FADEL: Right.

BREMMER: ...The U.S., has provided for Ukraine, as well as how toughly - how courageously⁷ the Ukrainians have fought. The - these sanctions are not changing Russia's military behavior, but they are damaging their economy and severely⁸. The expectation is, from the IMF, about a 10% contraction⁹ of Russian GDP. Russia economists¹⁰ I've talked to that are closer to the issue think it could be as much as 15% this year. And this is the first time that an economy this large has ever been decoupled so aggressively from the advanced industrial economies in the world. Russia's a G-20 economy.

FADEL: Yeah.

BREMMER: You've never seen sanctions like that against a G-20 economy of this scale.

FADEL: But the stated goal was to stop the Russian military. Was that not the goal?

BREMMER: The stated goal of the sanctions was to punish the Russians for their invasion. You know, I think the idea that economic sanctions by themselves are going to force the Russians to change their behavior is always going to be a tough call. This is going to hurt them for a long time. I don't think they're coming back. I think that once the Europeans decouple their oil and their gas - like they have their coal - from Russia, I don't see that coming back. I see that diversification¹¹ will be permanent. And that's a - that's an unfortunate thing for people around the world, don't get me wrong.

FADEL: Yeah.

BREMMER: But there's no question that this is part of a - the understanding, that Putin really misjudged his decision to invade Ukraine. I think the way I would frame it is if he knew that the West was going to respond collectively and as strongly as they have...

FADEL: Yeah.

BREMMER: ...The likelihood he would have invaded on February 24 is very low indeed.

FADEL: Now, he's still projecting an image of strength, real or not. And energy prices are high. The U.S. has banned Russian oil. Europe is, like you said, waning itself off. But they are still getting the money from oil - billions from oil and gas sales. So what does that mean for Russia right now?

BREMMER: Yeah, well, it means that we are in between when the announcements of all the cuts have been made and when they've been made. I mean, right now, in terms of gas, you've got a small number of countries that have said that they're no longer going to use these ruble-denominated accounts - Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Netherlands, I think Denmark. That's all of, like, 15% of gas that goes to Europe from Russia. And oil - announcements have been made about big boycotts¹² - the big ones, like Germany and Poland - coming from the end of the year. So the prices are going up, but they're still selling to Europe. And so as a consequence, yes, they're still making a lot of money right now.

Having said that, keep in mind, half of Russia's central bank assets have been frozen. They don't have access to that. That's hundreds of billions of dollars. It's larger than the amount that they are selling right now in terms of energy. That's an unprecedented¹³ sanction that was also taken by the Americans and the Europeans. So when you look at the Russian economy as a whole, you can't say, oh, they're doing better in response to sanctions. That's just not true. But also, Russia's not North Korea, and you can't make them into a global pariah¹⁴ when countries around the world are still very much relying on many of the commodities that they pull out of the ground.

FADEL: Right. And they're looking elsewhere to make up for the eventual¹⁵ Europe loss, namely China and India. You talked about punishing Russia. In the few seconds we have left, the long-term goal - punishing Russia on the global stage. What does that accomplish?

BREMMER: The long-term goal is that a - an invasion of a democratic country to forcibly change their borders and wipe them off the map is not going to be tolerated by the United States and its global allies, either in NATO or in Asia. And I think that that sends a message not just to Russia but to other countries that consider further invasions in the future.

FADEL: Ian Bremmer is founder of Eurasia Group. Thank you for taking the time.

BREMMER: My pleasure.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

3 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

4 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

5 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 accomplished   

adj.有才艺的；有造诣的；达到了的

参考例句：

• Thanks to your help,we accomplished the task ahead of schedule.亏得你们帮忙,我们才提前完成了任务。
• Removal of excess heat is accomplished by means of a radiator.通过散热器完成多余热量的排出。

7 courageously   

ad.勇敢地，无畏地

参考例句：

• Under the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the army and civilians in flooded areas fought the floods courageously, reducing the losses to the minimum. 在中共中央、国务院的正确领导下，灾区广大军民奋勇抗洪，把灾害的损失减少到了最低限度。
• He fought death courageously though his life was draining away. 他虽然生命垂危，但仍然勇敢地与死亡作斗争。

8 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

9 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

10 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

12 boycotts   

（对某事物的）抵制( boycott的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Their methods included boycotts and court action, supplemented by'sit-ins". 他们的主要方法包括联合抵制、法庭起诉，还附带进行静坐抗议。
• Are boycotts for other purposes illegal? 至于用于其它目的的联合抵制行动是否也是非法的呢？

13 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

14 pariah   

n.被社会抛弃者

参考例句：

• Shortly Tom came upon the juvenile pariah of the village.不一会儿，汤姆碰上了村里的少年弃儿。
• His landlady had treated him like a dangerous criminal,a pariah.房东太太对待他就像对待危险的罪犯、对待社会弃儿一样。

15 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。