美国国家公共电台 NPR--What do delinquent loan payments reveal about the economy?

What do delinquent¹ loan payments reveal about the economy?

Transcript²

NPR's A Martinez talks to Aaron Klein, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, about whether the amount of delinquent auto³ loan payments is a sign the economy is in trouble.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Wall Street has entered what traders call bear market territory. Markets in Japan, Australia, South Korea and China fell today after U.S. stocks hit the milestone⁴ indicating a 20% decline or more from recent highs. Other financial trouble could be brewing⁵ even closer to home. The credit reporting agencies Equifax and TransUnion say young people and lower income households are struggling to pay off car loans and other debt. Aaron Klein is a senior fellow in economic studies with the Brookings Institution. Aaron, are we seeing clear signs of an economy in trouble?

AARON KLEIN: No, I don't think we are in the sense that the traditional markers of GDP and unemployment are, generally, pretty good. But what you have seen is a huge decrease in some of the asset values, stock prices, changes in bonds, the rout⁶ in crypto. And these asset prices fluctuate wildly. It's important to remember - they're down 20% from their highs. But their highs are way larger than they were when COVID struck. And I don't think anybody thinks the society is better off for the last couple of years of COVID. However, lower income individuals are experiencing a little more hardship. One, the government benefits - the various stimulus⁷ checks, the enhanced unemployment insurance benefits, the loan forgiveness and support during the pandemic - are being pulled out from them. And as a result, they're starting to get back to what's historically more normal levels of financial difficulty at home. And that is reverberating⁸.

MART?NEZ: So is it a return to normal or a warning sign because it just - it seems like it can't be both.

KLEIN: Well, it's a bit of a combination in the sense that, one, it's a return to normal. But what's different now is this level of inflation. We've reached a very high level of inflation, you know? When I teach economics, it was starting to get very hard to even explain high levels of inflation to the students because they hadn't experienced anything, they hadn't heard their parents talk about anything like this for a very long time. And the Federal Reserve got inflation wrong. And now they're trying to correct their mistake by pretty quickly hiking interest rates. And that will slow the economy. And it could slow it more significantly. But monetary⁹ policy takes time to act. There's a long lag between when the Fed moves this week, when it moved before and when that trickles¹⁰ through the economy. Markets react instantly to that. But usually, it can take up to a year before the full effect of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is felt on the real economy.

MART?NEZ: Aaron, those pandemic relief checks, did that encourage people, especially young people, to maybe overspend and maybe take on too much debt?

KLEIN: Well, it's hard to know in terms of how much they're spending. Keep in mind, during the pandemic, it was hard to buy many things. I remember trying to run around frantically¹¹ looking for toilet paper, right? So it's not as if people were going out, partying it up on these relief checks. To the contrary, they were being used for daily necessity in life. But what I do think that you have is a situation where you had an economy going into the pandemic that had some problems even after 10 years of strong growth, in large part because it's been so unequal. Lower income people had not gotten the full benefits of the booming economy that we had over the 2010s. And so there are questions of equality that get mixed into this. Look; I thought - I was among the first people - when the pandemic hit, I thought we were going to have a huge problem in used cars because there was - the lending that had gone on in used cars and subprime auto was, really, out of control. Turns out, for the first time in recorded history, used cars appreciated in value. And that masked a lot of the underlying¹² problems in that market. Now you're seeing used car default rates rise again, in large part, I think, because the lenders want to get their hands back on these cars that are now suddenly worth more than they were two years ago.

MART?NEZ: So on those defaults, though, what's the long-term impact for people whose credit scores will probably - certainly be affected¹³ by missing payments or defaulting?

KLEIN: Well, look; there are fewer Americans who are considered subprime credits today than there were going into the pandemic. This is largely because people used those relief checks responsibly. They helped reduce their amount of debt. And they built up a little bit of a savings¹⁴ cushion. But there's always a group of folks who have trouble making their monthly bills, in large part because society has become so unequal and income is so volatile¹⁵ among folks who are living paycheck to paycheck, trying to make it by - hourly workers, etc. And I think we're going to get back to a situation where those stresses in those households continue. In the long run, I hope we get off this whole concept of credit scoring, whether or not you pay the bill five or six years ago determining some magic number that's made to look like your SATs and your creditworthiness. There's a lot of better technology to assess creditworthiness out there today.

MART?NEZ: Aaron, really quick before you go - so this unequal, this inequality, I mean, considering that, you know, these credit scores still determine how much we can spend and how much we can buy in a lot of cases, is this inequality just going to keep on lasting¹⁶ long term?

KLEIN: Well, until there's a structural¹⁷ change, yes. And we need a different way to order credit, to give people opportunity than these silly, three-digit FICO scores that look like SATs and are about as predictive in life.

MART?NEZ: Aaron Klein is a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. Aaron, thanks.

1 delinquent   

adj.犯法的，有过失的；n.违法者

参考例句：

• Most delinquent children have deprived backgrounds.多数少年犯都有未受教育的背景。
• He is delinquent in paying his rent.他拖欠房租。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

4 milestone   

n.里程碑；划时代的事件

参考例句：

• The film proved to be a milestone in the history of cinema.事实证明这部影片是电影史上的一个里程碑。
• I think this is a very important milestone in the relations between our two countries.我认为这是我们两国关系中一个十分重要的里程碑。

5 brewing   

n. 酿造, 一次酿造的量 动词brew的现在分词形式

参考例句：

• It was obvious that a big storm was brewing up. 很显然，一场暴风雨正在酝酿中。
• She set about brewing some herb tea. 她动手泡一些药茶。

6 rout   

n.溃退，溃败；v.击溃，打垮

参考例句：

• The enemy was put to rout all along the line.敌人已全线崩溃。
• The people's army put all to rout wherever they went.人民军队所向披靡。

7 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

8 reverberating   

回响，回荡( reverberate的现在分词 )； 使反响，使回荡，使反射

参考例句：

• The words are still ringing [reverberating] in one's ears. 言犹在耳。
• I heard a voice reverberating: "Crawl out! I give you liberty!" 我听到一个声音在回荡：“爬出来吧，我给你自由！”

9 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

10 trickles   

n.细流( trickle的名词复数 )；稀稀疏疏缓慢来往的东西v.滴( trickle的第三人称单数 )；淌；使)慢慢走；缓慢移动

参考例句：

• Trickles of sweat rained down my head and neck. 我颈上头上的汗珠，更同盛雨似的，一颗一颗的钻出来了。 来自汉英文学 - 中国现代小说
• Water trickles through an underground grotto. 水沿着地下岩洞流淌。 来自辞典例句

11 frantically   

ad.发狂地, 发疯地

参考例句：

• He dashed frantically across the road. 他疯狂地跑过马路。
• She bid frantically for the old chair. 她发狂地喊出高价要买那把古老的椅子。

12 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

13 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

14 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

15 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

16 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

17 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。