美国国家公共电台 NPR--What do we know about Powell's approach to economic policy and inflation?

What do we know about Powell's approach to economic policy and inflation?

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez speaks with Sarah Binder², a professor at George Washington University, about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's approach to economic policy.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is at the helm, navigating³ this moment. So what do we know about his approach to economic policy and inflation? Well, for one, we know that he's a student of Paul Volcker, who was Fed chair the last time we saw inflation at these levels back in the 1980s. Here to discuss, I'm joined by Sarah Binder, professor of political science at George Washington University. Professor, Volcker's approach to a monetary⁴ policy is credited with bringing inflation under control back then. It didn't come, though, without some economic pain. What did he do that was so successful?

SARAH BINDER: Well, Volcker did a number of things and had a number of things working for him, right? First, he did have the resolve to lead the Fed to raise rates so high, even at the cost of throwing the economy into a very deep recession, right? Second, how'd he do it, right? He succeeded in part - I think there was a very broad consensus⁵ at the time that two decades of rising inflation, it was really time for the Fed to act, right? The interest rates today set by the Fed are barely 1%. They were already over 10% at the time. Couple of things to keep in mind just quickly - right? - in 1979 when Volcker was appointed - right? - the Fed was far less transparent⁶ than Congress has forced it to be today. And Volcker, most importantly, he had political support, right? He had support from the White House, sometimes publicly, definitely behind the scenes. And that's what the Fed often really needs to make tough policy choices.

MART?NEZ: Back in 1980, though, Professor, there was no Twitter, no social media where people could really, you know, vent⁷ their frustration⁸ on inflation. Does Jerome Powell have the same resolve? Can he take some of that Volcker resolve to 2022?

BINDER: Well, we know he does have one thing going for him, which is that the White House, in fact, is, really, pretty strongly behind him, right? Biden gave a big press conference just last week or so where he basically was very clear, right? He said, Jay Powell, this is your job, Federal Reserve. And I'm not going to interfere⁹ - really almost something almost to the tee what Reagan had said to Volcker publicly. But there's no doubt - right? - Congress has forced the Fed to be far more transparent. And certainly, there's, you know, 24/7 watching and expectations, knowing what and anticipating what the Fed is going to do.

MART?NEZ: If Powell indeed moves to increase rates more now than was originally expected, would that surprise you, Professor, considering what we know about Volcker's approach?

BINDER: Well, I think what's surprising here is that the Fed works today unlike Volcker, right? In many ways, the Volcker Fed was sort of the man behind the curtain, right? Today, monetary policy, the Fed works by telegraphing what it's going to do - right? - no surprises - right? - communication, right? Bernanke, the last - two times ago Fed chair, he said, you know, when we - what monetary policy is, it's talk, 98% talk. And so if it's - if there's a surprise here - right? - the possibility that the Fed goes to three-quarters of a percent hike rather than a half a percent, that's a surprise. And maybe it works to the Fed's advantage. But it will also raise some concerns, right? Is the Fed so far behind the ball that it has to shock us? Is it really, really trying to catch up? And should we be more worried?

MART?NEZ: So if telegraphing, if being transparent about this is the play - or at least that's what we think - thought the play was going to be. If, as you said, these rates go up higher than expected. I mean, that sounds like it would spook everyone.

BINDER: Well, I think that's probably why we saw what seems to have been sort of a very careful leak, perhaps, to The Wall Street Journal, which surmised¹⁰ this week that, you know, a three-quarter point increase was possibly on the table. There's at least some speculation¹¹ around town and around the Fed that that could happen. And that does suggest, just as you said, look; if the play is to forecast and predict where we're going, no surprises, then that suggests they're finding themselves at a much worse point economically than they thought they were the last time they met.

MART?NEZ: You said President Biden is fully¹² behind Jerome Powell, is just going to stay out of things. But how much power does Powell have as far as navigating this crisis?

BINDER: Well, I think the way we should think about the power of the Fed and the ability of the Fed is the degree to which it sustains public support, right? The public has to think and markets and financial participants and businesses and households, they have to think the Fed is going to do what it says it's going to do, which in this case is to tame inflation. But - and that's why political support matters, right? And that's what Powell really needs to keep, right? You know, a couple of times ago, he started out his press conference - right? - just speaking. I want to speak to the American people, right? Does he do that again? He needs to keep public support thinking and knowing that the Fed has the credibility to slay¹³ inflation.

MART?NEZ: Sarah Binder, professor of political science at George Washington University and co-author of "The Myth Of Independence: How Congress Governs The Federal Reserve." Professor, thanks.

BINDER: Sure. Thanks for having me.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 binder   

n.包扎物，包扎工具；[法]临时契约；粘合剂；装订工

参考例句：

• The cloth flower snaps on with a special binder.这布花是用一种特殊的粘合剂固定住的。
• Purified water was used as liquid binder.纯净水作为液体粘合剂。

3 navigating   

v.给（船舶、飞机等）引航，导航( navigate的现在分词 )；（从海上、空中等）横越；横渡；飞跃

参考例句：

• These can also be very useful when navigating time-based documents, such as video and audio. 它对于和时间有关的文档非常有用，比如视频和音频文档。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• Vehicles slowed to a crawl on city roads, navigating slushy snow. 汽车在市区路上行驶缓慢，穿越泥泞的雪地。 来自互联网

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

6 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

7 vent   

n.通风口，排放口；开衩；vt.表达，发泄

参考例句：

• He gave vent to his anger by swearing loudly.他高声咒骂以发泄他的愤怒。
• When the vent became plugged,the engine would stop.当通风口被堵塞时，发动机就会停转。

8 frustration   

n.挫折，失败，失效，落空

参考例句：

• He had to fight back tears of frustration.他不得不强忍住失意的泪水。
• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration.他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。

9 interfere   

v.(in)干涉，干预；(with)妨碍，打扰

参考例句：

• If we interfere, it may do more harm than good.如果我们干预的话，可能弊多利少。
• When others interfere in the affair,it always makes troubles. 别人一卷入这一事件，棘手的事情就来了。

10 surmised   

v.臆测，推断( surmise的过去式和过去分词 )；揣测；猜想

参考例句：

• From the looks on their faces, I surmised that they had had an argument. 看他们的脸色，我猜想他们之间发生了争执。
• From his letter I surmised that he was unhappy. 我从他的信中推测他并不快乐。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

12 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

13 slay   

v.杀死，宰杀，杀戮

参考例句：

• He intended to slay his father's murderer.他意图杀死杀父仇人。
• She has ordered me to slay you.她命令我把你杀了。