美国国家公共电台 NPR--Lower gas prices provide some relief to inflation-weary consumers

Lower gas prices provide some relief to inflation-weary consumers

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel speaks with economist² Julia Coronado, the founder³ of economic research service Macropolicy Perspectives, about the impact of gas prices on inflation and the economy.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

We're going to turn now to economist Julia Coronado for the bigger picture. She's the founder of an economic research service, Macropolicy Perspectives. Good morning, Julia. Thanks for being on the program.

JULIA CORONADO: My pleasure. Good morning.

FADEL: So, as I said, I really want to start with the bigger picture here. What do these changes in gas prices actually mean for the overall economy?

CORONADO: Well, they do provide some relief to consumers. So consumers have been getting squeezed lately. Wage growth has been pretty strong, but inflation has been rising a little bit faster. So consumers have been losing ground on purchasing power. So with falling gas prices and potentially some relief on food prices in the pipeline⁴, consumers will have a little bit more money to spend on other goods and services, and that's good for the broader economy.

FADEL: And why do you expect food prices to also start coming down?

CORONADO: Just like with gas prices, some of these global movements we've seen in commodity markets have indicated lower food prices. It takes longer for that to feed through to grocery store prices, but we have seen some relief in those wholesale⁵ commodity markets.

FADEL: OK, so good news on gas, possibly good news on food, but there's another big price item for so many people, which is housing, which you have to pay for. What do we expect there?

CORONADO: Right. So we are seeing early stages of a housing correction. We've seen interest rates - the Federal Reserve, which is trying to cool off inflation, has raised interest rates quite substantially. Higher mortgage rates have cooled off housing demand, brought some prices - some pressure on prices. It's still early days. That should filter through to rents over time. This is a longer event. It usually takes time for this to happen. So we're probably looking at relief on rents in next year, really 2023.

FADEL: Now, we also got word yesterday of a dip in annual inflation from 9.1% to 8.5% last month. Does this change the Federal Reserve's plans to possibly continue raising interest rates? Or what would the plans be on interest rates, if that were to continue?

CORONADO: I think what this does is confirm to the Fed that their plan is on track.

FADEL: OK.

CORONADO: So they still have signaled further interest rate increases are coming and that they'll eventually stop somewhere around 3 to 3 1/2%, and that's another percent from here. But that is based on the expectation that their policy will bring inflation down over time, and it seems to be having an effect. So that's good news. It is having an effect. We are seeing inflation cool. That doesn't mean you stop now. It means you go forward with your plan and complete it so that you get to your ultimate goal, which is inflation closer to 2%, not 8%.

FADEL: Now, what does this - all of these things together - what does this tell us about where the economy is headed?

CORONADO: Yeah, so there's been a lot of talk about recession. It is clear from the job market that we're not in a recession now. Recessions usually mean job losses and rising unemployment. We are not there. We actually saw the unemployment rate fall in July. So that's good news. We're not in a recession yet. But with the Fed raising interest rates, with sectors⁶ like housing cooling and inflation still running pretty high, it's a delicate balance. So we're at a delicate inflection point. The falling gas prices is good news. It should help the resiliency of the economy. But, you know, we're in a risky⁷ moment right now.

FADEL: A risky moment. Now, a lot of the things that we talk about are really short term. When you look at the long view and this delicate balance, what are you thinking, looking for in the economy?

CORONADO: Well, so we've really never seen a job market quite this strong. I am a little bit optimistic that that can carry the day and allow us to stay on track. Even if we go through a soft patch, we can avoid a recession.

FADEL: Economist Julia Coronado with Macropolicy Perspectives. Thank you so much.

CORONADO: My pleasure.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

4 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

5 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

6 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。