美国国家公共电台 NPR--A majority of Americans see an 'invasion' at the southern border, NPR poll finds

A majority of Americans see an 'invasion' at the southern border, NPR poll finds

Transcript¹

More than half of Americans say there's an "invasion" at the southern border, according to a new NPR/Ipsos poll, part of a broader decline in support for immigrants overall.

The poll also found that large numbers of Americans hold a variety of misconceptions about immigrants — greatly exaggerating their role in smuggling² illegal drugs into the U.S., and how likely they are to use public benefits, for example — as false and misleading claims about immigration gain traction³.

Republicans are more likely to hold negative views of immigrants. But the poll found they're not alone in embracing increasingly extreme rhetoric⁴ around immigration.

"Invasion" rhetoric is resonating with many Americans

The poll found that a majority of Americans — including three-quarters of Republicans — say it's either somewhat or completely true that the United States is "experiencing an invasion" at the southern border.

The U.S. Border Patrol has apprehended⁵ migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border more than 1.8 million times since October, setting an annual record for arrests with two months still to go before the fiscal⁶ year ends.

Nearly half of those migrants were quickly expelled under the public health order known as Title 42 that's been in place since the beginning of the pandemic. But hundreds of thousands more were allowed to seek asylum⁷ and other protections in the United States.

Republican leaders are increasingly framing the situation as an "invasion." Immigrant advocates say the word has a long history in white nationalist circles, and warn that such extreme rhetoric could provoke more violence against immigrants.

Still, the polling shows that the word "invasion" has been embraced by a wide range of Americans to describe what's happening at the border.

"We are not actually screening enough people to make it safe for the rest of the country," said poll respondent Michael Cisternino, a Republican from Nevada, in a follow-up interview.

"We, the people of the United States, really don't have control over who's coming in, and where they're going or what they're going to do when they get there — if they're criminals, if they're not criminals," Cisternino said.

Studies have consistently shown that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes or be incarcerated⁸ than native-born Americans. In the NPR/Ipsos poll, a plurality of Republicans answered incorrectly that immigrants are more likely to commit crimes.

Republicans were also more likely to endorse⁹ rhetoric that echoes the so-called "replacement¹⁰ theory" — the false conspiracy¹¹ theory that Jews or elites¹² are deliberately¹³ replacing white Americans with immigrants and people of color.

More than a third of all poll respondents agree that "native-born Americans are being systematically¹⁴ replaced by immigrants" — including more than half of Republicans. Almost half of all Americans say that "Democrats¹⁵ are working to open our borders to more immigrants," with more than 70% of Republicans in agreement.

The issue of immigration is much more urgent for Republicans than for Democrats. About a quarter of GOP respondents say immigration is one of the "most worrying" problems facing the country, while only 4% of Democrats rank immigration as a top concern.

"A lot of immigrants are coming here for safety, and a lot of them are coming here for a chance" at a better life, said poll respondent Neel-Gopal Sharma, a Democrat¹⁶ from North Carolina, in a follow-up interview.

Sharma's parents emigrated from India to Canada, where he was born, and later moved to the United States. Sharma thinks it's becoming increasingly acceptable to blame immigrants and other people who look different for the country's problems.

"There is this xenophobic kind of talk that's being thrown around," he said. "So I'm not surprised by that."

Misleading claims about immigrants are gaining traction, particularly around fentanyl

The poll found that a large number of Americans, including big majorities of Republicans, blame migrants for a rise in deaths from fentanyl — even though there's no evidence directly linking them to the problem.

It's true that fentanyl overdose deaths are up in recent years, and that much of the U.S. fentanyl supply is smuggled¹⁷ through the border.

But experts say the vast majority of fentanyl and other illegal drugs are smuggled through official ports of entry, hidden in large trucks and passenger vehicles, while a relatively¹⁸ small amount is smuggled by cartels across the border between those ports.

Virtually none is smuggled by migrants themselves, says Victor Manjarrez, Jr., a former Border Patrol sector¹⁹ chief who's now a professor at the University of Texas at El Paso.

"The probability that they're going to carry some kind of illicit²⁰ narcotic²¹ is probably close to zero," Manjarrez said. "The vast majority of that fentanyl is going through a port of entry."

Still, six out of 10 of Republicans in the poll said incorrectly that "most" of the fentanyl entering the United States is smuggled by migrants.

Similarly, more than half of Republicans say immigrants are "more likely" to use public assistance benefits than the native-born population, even though many immigrants are barred from using most federal benefit programs. Less than a quarter of Republicans correctly identified that statement as false.

"These statements of false or misleading or incomplete information are definitely gaining more traction among Republicans," said Mallory Newall, a vice²² president at Ipsos, which conducted the poll.

But partisanship²³ isn't the only factor.

"What we're seeing here in our polling is that your willingness to believe these misleading or incomplete statements around immigration not only depends on your partisan²⁴ affiliation²⁵, but also where you are getting your news from," Newall said.

Republicans who get their news from Fox News and conservative media were more likely to believe false or misleading narratives²⁶, Newall says, and were also more likely to believe that these claims were "completely true."

That finding was especially strong when it comes to so-called "ghost flights." Republicans accuse the Biden administration of organizing secret flights carrying migrants from the border to communities across the country. But immigrants advocates point out that such flights aren't secret or new, and accuse Republican critics of fear-mongering for political gain.

The poll asked if the United States is "secretly flying unaccompanied migrant children across the country at night." Among Republicans whose main news source is Fox or conservative media, about eight in 10 called that statement true, Newall said. However Republicans who get their news elsewhere weren't so sure; only four in 10 answered true.

Falling support for immigration, and an uptick in approval for a border wall

When NPR polled Americans on immigration in 2018, three out of four respondents agreed that "immigrants are an important part of our American identity."

Today that number has fallen sharply.

That's not the only sign of eroding²⁷ support for immigrants in the latest poll.

When asked four years ago, nearly two-thirds of respondents favored a pathway to legal status for the so-called Dreamers, undocumented immigrants who were brought to the country as children. Now that support has fallen to a bare majority, driven largely by a steep drop among Republicans and independents.

There's also been a modest but steady increase in support for a wall at the southern border, from 38% in favor four years ago up to 46% now.

It's not clear why those numbers have shifted. Mallory Newall at Ipsos suspects the explanation is tied to broader concerns about inflation and the economy.

"One thing that we know is that during times of bad economic conditions, for example, the recession in 2009, support for immigration declines," she said.

There's also a theory that support for immigrants tends to fall when there is a perception of chaos²⁸ at the southern border. And the spread of false and misleading claims could be a factor, as well.

The reach of false and misleading claims may be growing

The poll suggests that the reach of some false and misleading claims may be growing.

Four years ago, NPR asked if "immigrants are more likely to commit crimes or be incarcerated than the U.S.-born population." Back then, more than 60% of respondents correctly identified that statement as false. But when asked again this year, only 49% got it right.

That wasn't the only question where Americans' grasp of immigration seemingly declined during the past four years.

In 2018, six out of 10 respondents correctly said that most undocumented immigrants in the United States have been in the country for more than a decade. This time, 43% answered correctly; almost as many said they didn't know.

"There has historically been a lot of framing issues regarding immigration that have sometimes distorted facts intentionally," said Sophia Jordán Wallace, a professor of political science at the University of Washington who has studied false and misleading claims about immigration.

Wallace says there's a long tradition in American politics of blaming immigrants for real problems the country is facing as a way to mobilize voters — regardless of whether there's any connection between those immigrants and the problems they're accused of causing.

Those misleading or false claims don't always cross over to the mainstream²⁹. But sometimes, Wallace says, they do.

"Once it gets out there, it's hard to correct," she said.

The NPR/Ipsos poll was conducted from July 28-29, 2022, with a sample of 1,116 adults online. The poll has a margin³⁰ of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all respondents.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 smuggling   

n.走私

参考例句：

• Some claimed that the docker's union fronted for the smuggling ring.某些人声称码头工人工会是走私集团的掩护所。
• The evidence pointed to the existence of an international smuggling network.证据表明很可能有一个国际走私网络存在。

3 traction   

n.牵引；附着摩擦力

参考例句：

• I'll show you how the traction is applied.我会让你看如何做这种牵引。
• She's injured her back and is in traction for a month.她背部受伤，正在作一个月的牵引治疗。

4 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

5 apprehended   

逮捕，拘押( apprehend的过去式和过去分词 )； 理解

参考例句：

• She apprehended the complicated law very quickly. 她很快理解了复杂的法律。
• The police apprehended the criminal. 警察逮捕了罪犯。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 asylum   

n.避难所，庇护所，避难

参考例句：

• The people ask for political asylum.人们请求政治避难。
• Having sought asylum in the West for many years,they were eventually granted it.他们最终获得了在西方寻求多年的避难权。

8 incarcerated   

钳闭的

参考例句：

• They were incarcerated for the duration of the war. 战争期间，他们被关在狱中。 来自辞典例句
• I don't want to worry them by being incarcerated. 我不想让他们知道我被拘禁的事情。 来自电影对白

9 endorse   

vt.(支票、汇票等)背书，背署；批注；同意

参考例句：

• No one is foolish enough to endorse it.没有哪个人会傻得赞成它。
• I fully endorse your opinions on this subject.我完全拥护你对此课题的主张。

10 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

11 conspiracy   

n.阴谋，密谋，共谋

参考例句：

• The men were found guilty of conspiracy to murder.这些人被裁决犯有阴谋杀人罪。
• He claimed that it was all a conspiracy against him.他声称这一切都是一场针对他的阴谋。

12 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

13 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

14 systematically   

adv.有系统地

参考例句：

• This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。
• The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

15 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

17 smuggled   

水货

参考例句：

• The customs officer confiscated the smuggled goods. 海关官员没收了走私品。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Those smuggled goods have been detained by the port office. 那些走私货物被港务局扣押了。 来自互联网

18 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

19 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

20 illicit   

adj.非法的，禁止的，不正当的

参考例句：

• He had an illicit association with Jane.他和简曾有过不正当关系。
• Seizures of illicit drugs have increased by 30% this year.今年违禁药品的扣押增长了30%。

21 narcotic   

n.麻醉药，镇静剂；adj.麻醉的，催眠的

参考例句：

• Opium is classed under the head of narcotic.鸦片是归入麻醉剂一类的东西。
• No medical worker is allowed to prescribe any narcotic drug for herself.医务人员不得为自己开处方使用麻醉药品。

22 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

23 Partisanship   

n. 党派性, 党派偏见

参考例句：

• Her violent partisanship was fighting Soames's battle. 她的激烈偏袒等于替索米斯卖气力。
• There was a link of understanding between them, more important than affection or partisanship. ' 比起人间的感情，比起相同的政见，这一点都来得格外重要。 来自英汉文学

24 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。

25 affiliation   

n.联系，联合

参考例句：

• There is no affiliation between our organization and theirs,even though our names are similar.尽管两个组织的名称相似，但我们之间并没有关系。
• The kidnappers had no affiliation with any militant group.这些绑架者与任何军事组织都没有紧密联系。

26 narratives   

记叙文( narrative的名词复数 )； 故事； 叙述； 叙述部分

参考例句：

• Marriage, which has been the bourne of so many narratives, is still a great beginning. 结婚一向是许多小说的终点，然而也是一个伟大的开始。
• This is one of the narratives that children are fond of. 这是孩子们喜欢的故事之一。

27 eroding   

侵蚀，腐蚀( erode的现在分词 )； 逐渐毁坏，削弱，损害

参考例句：

• The coast is slowly eroding. 海岸正慢慢地被侵蚀。
• Another new development is eroding the age-old stereotype of the male warrior. 另一个新现象是，久已形成的男人皆武士的形象正逐渐消失。

28 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

29 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

30 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。