美国国家公共电台 NPR--Spikes in mortgage rate force many potential homebuyers to rethink their plans

Spikes¹ in mortgage rate force many potential homebuyers to rethink their plans

Transcript²

Mortgage rates have seen their biggest rise in 40 years. But now, rates are jumping up and down as markets try to anticipate where the economy is headed.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes to tamp³ down inflation have pushed mortgage rates up this year for the biggest increase in 40 years. That's made homeownership unaffordable for many Americans. But lending rates are also going up and then down sharply from week to week. NPR's Chris Arnold explains why.

CHRIS ARNOLD, BYLINE⁴: Back in January, Jean Ann Baker⁵ thought she was finally able to become a homeowner. She'd just gotten a pay raise at her job in special education.

JEAN ANN BAKER: I'm divorced. I'm a single mom. I've been saving up for seven years for a down payment for a house. So I was like, awesome⁶, so I've got 30,000 for a down payment.

ARNOLD: Baker lives in Waco, Texas, and she signed an agreement to buy a new-construction home for $440,000. She's been by a bunch of times with the kids to watch it getting built. But it's not finished yet, and by June, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages had risen from around 3% up to 6%. That's just a huge jump.

BAKER: So I talk to my mortgage guy, and he was telling me that right now I'm not going to be approved for the loan anymore because my mortgage payment will have gone up almost $800 a month. It's more than I could afford.

ARNOLD: She hasn't officially backed out yet, but she's told her kids that it looks like they can't buy the house.

BAKER: My 7-year-old - he was in tears 'cause we were thinking forever home. You know, like, this was going to be where they finished out their childhood, was going to be this house.

ARNOLD: If rates fall low enough again to, say, 4 1/2% she could afford the house. And that's not impossible. Mortgage rates have been jumping up and down. Where they go next has a lot to do with what investors⁷ and financial markets think is going to happen with the economy and inflation.

Mike Fratantoni is the chief economist⁸ at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MIKE FRATANTONI: So there's really two dueling⁹ narratives¹¹ out there. One is that inflation is going to persist.

ARNOLD: That scenario¹² is that higher inflation will continue to be very bad, and that will force the Federal Reserve to keep raising the interest rates that it controls to fight inflation. That's the fear that led financial markets to push mortgage rates up so much so quickly.

FRATANTONI: The jump from 3% rates at the beginning of the year to above 6% in June.

ARNOLD: But there is another narrative¹⁰ out there, too, and that one is that the problem with inflation will get better because the economy will slow down.

FRATANTONI: The global economy has gotten much, much dicier. It looks like there's going to be a deep recession in the U.K. and in Europe. China has slowed down. So you have this global environment of much weaker growth, which is going to be a challenge for U.S. companies.

ARNOLD: So a slowdown, even a mild recession. People won't spend as much. Inflation calms down. In that scenario, the Fed won't have to keep raising interest rates as much as we thought. A couple of weeks ago, that narrative helped drive mortgage rates back sharply lower to a bit below 5%.

FRATANTONI: Whatever economic news comes in, it's supporting one or the other side of this story, the inflation versus¹³ recession debate. And so you get everybody running to one or the other side of the boat.

ARNOLD: Everybody runs to the scary inflation side of the boat, rates go up. They run the other way and rock the boat back, and rates go down.

FRATANTONI: Exactly. Financial markets are reacting by showing these really wild swings in rates.

ARNOLD: In the past couple of weeks, rates have stayed well below 6%.

Skylar Olsen, the chief economist at Zillow, says that's probably a good sign for mortgages and inflation.

SKYLAR OLSEN: It does seem that the market believes the Fed will be fixing inflation or starting to fix inflation, and maybe things won't be too bad. But, you know, we'll see.

ARNOLD: For her part, Jean Ann Baker in Texas is just hoping that rates dip low enough again that she can afford to buy that house for her and her kids.

BAKER: That's why I haven't walked away from the contract yet because, who knows? It may happen.

ARNOLD: An adjustable-rate mortgage might help her get a lower rate that she could afford, but so far she feels like that's just too risky¹⁴, not knowing where rates will be in five years when it adjusts.

Chris Arnold, NPR News.

1 spikes   

n.穗( spike的名词复数 )；跑鞋；（防滑）鞋钉；尖状物v.加烈酒于( spike的第三人称单数 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• a row of iron spikes on a wall 墙头的一排尖铁
• There is a row of spikes on top of the prison wall to prevent the prisoners escaping. 监狱墙头装有一排尖钉，以防犯人逃跑。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 tamp   

v.捣实，砸实

参考例句：

• Then I tamp down the soil with the back of a rake.然后我用耙子的背将土壤拍实。
• Philpott tamped a wad of tobacco into his pipe.菲尔波特往烟斗里塞了一卷碎烟叶。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 baker   

n.面包师

参考例句：

• The baker bakes his bread in the bakery.面包师在面包房内烤面包。
• The baker frosted the cake with a mixture of sugar and whites of eggs.面包师在蛋糕上撒了一层白糖和蛋清的混合料。

6 awesome   

adj.令人惊叹的，难得吓人的，很好的

参考例句：

• The church in Ireland has always exercised an awesome power.爱尔兰的教堂一直掌握着令人敬畏的权力。
• That new white convertible is totally awesome.那辆新的白色折篷汽车简直棒极了.

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 dueling   

n. 决斗, 抗争(=duelling) 动词duel的现在分词形式

参考例句：

• More light-hearted But somewhat puzzled, Vladimir prepared to meet Eugene on the dueling ground. 弗拉基米尔心里轻松了一些，但仍感到有些困惑，在这种心情下，他准备去决斗场地迎战叶甫盖尼。 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 文学
• They had been dueling for hours and finally called a draw. 他们一直决斗了数小时，最后打成平局。

10 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

11 narratives   

记叙文( narrative的名词复数 )； 故事； 叙述； 叙述部分

参考例句：

• Marriage, which has been the bourne of so many narratives, is still a great beginning. 结婚一向是许多小说的终点，然而也是一个伟大的开始。
• This is one of the narratives that children are fond of. 这是孩子们喜欢的故事之一。

12 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

13 versus   

prep.以…为对手，对；与…相比之下

参考例句：

• The big match tonight is England versus Spain.今晚的大赛是英格兰对西班牙。
• The most exciting game was Harvard versus Yale.最富紧张刺激的球赛是哈佛队对耶鲁队。

14 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。