美国国家公共电台 NPR--Russian history professor breaks down Putin's latest speech

Russian history professor breaks down Putin's latest speech

Transcript¹

Sergey Radchenko, professor of Russian history at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies takes a look at Putin's speech declaring a partial mobilization in Russia.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

What do we make of Russia's partial mobilization of the armed forces? President Vladimir Putin is calling up military reservists, pulling people with some military training out of civilian³ life. The government says their job will be to hold the front line in Ukraine, where Russian forces have suffered heavy losses. Putin is also making moves to annex⁴ parts of Ukraine to Russia, the same way that Russia once claimed Crimea. Sergey Radchenko is a professor of Russian history at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He's going to help us talk through this. Welcome to the program.

SERGEY RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me.

INSKEEP: Putin did order a partial mobilization but did not order a universal draft. What can we learn from what he did and what he did not do there?

RADCHENKO: Right. So the actual proclamation or the directive that he issued did not actually say partial, but what we can learn from it is that the Ministry⁵ of Defense⁶ will have a quota⁷ for each region, and the quota will then say how many reservists that particular region has to contribute to the overall number. Minister of Defense Shoigu announced that the number is likely to be in the region of 300,000.

INSKEEP: Which is a lot of people, but they could have called up more. Does this indicate that Russian authorities and Putin himself are worried about the level of public support for this war?

RADCHENKO: Well, that's certainly part of that. Obviously, mobilization is not popular in Russia. And if you follow flights out of Russia, as I have done this morning and yesterday, you know, tickets are being purchased. Flights are just impossible to get because people are fleeing Russia. You know, people of the age when they could be drafted to serve in this war do not want to do it, and many of them are trying to leave. So there is a general - there's public wariness⁸. Nobody wants to really fight in this war. And that's despite the fact that according to the directive that Putin issued, the people who are being drafted will be given salaries on par² with the contract soldiers. And those are actually fairly high salaries by the standards of Russia's regions.

INSKEEP: Now, with all of that said, even though it's not a full mobilization, they are calling up 300,000 Russians. Maybe they're reservists. They do have military training. But they're being pulled out of civilian life. Isn't even that level of mobilization likely to increase opposition⁹ to this conflict?

RADCHENKO: Well, absolutely. People have - as I said, you know, there hasn't - there has been a certain support for the war in Russia, especially among the radical¹⁰ nationalists. But I think the vast majority of the Russian people have been indifferent - I think the word is indifferent - have been looking after their own lives, their private lives, and now this war is coming to them directly. Now they are the ones who have to go into the military, who have to go to the front line, who have to die for what? Not for their country, but for fighting on behalf of Putin's imperial dreams. And I just do not think that this will sell very well among the Russian public.

INSKEEP: Now, Putin also appeared to threaten the use of nuclear weapons, saying that they could use all of their weapons. They have many weapons to respond and adding, quote, "I'm not bluffing¹²." I should mention when someone says they're not bluffing, brings up the idea of bluffing, it often sounds to me like they're bluffing. Is he?

RADCHENKO: Exactly. Exactly. And, you know. OK, so the - we don't know under what circumstances Putin might actually use nuclear weapons. Nobody knows that. The possibility, certainly, is there because Russia is a major nuclear power, the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, and, you know, we have to take this threat seriously.

Now, one thing that drew my attention in the remarks that Putin made, apart from his bluff¹¹ or no-bluff comment, is the fact that Putin said that threats to Russia's territorial¹³ integrity would be something that Russia could respond to with the use of nuclear weapons or all means at its disposal. And of course, that becomes important if you think about the referenda that are being proposed now, will be held in the occupied territories of Ukraine, because if those territories are annexed¹⁴ by Russia, which is very likely at this point, then it seems that Putin is basically saying, well, if - you know, to defend those territories, I could use nuclear weapons.

INSKEEP: They're saying that eastern Ukraine would go under the Russian nuclear umbrella, that Ukrainian troops would have to stop at some specified¹⁵ point or else face nuclear retaliation¹⁶. Is that what you're saying?

RADCHENKO: It has to be taken - you know, all of this has to be taken with a grain of salt. I think Putin understands or would hope he understands that there are obvious red lines there with regard to the use of nuclear weapons. And it has to be said that Russian territory has been struck already by Ukrainians. You know, in Belgorod, for example, there have been attacks on some Russian installations, and that has not triggered a nuclear war. So we have to be a little bit skeptical¹⁷ here. And of course, Putin understands that he's not the only - Russia is not the only country in the world that has nuclear weapons, and I think, you know, concepts of deterrence¹⁸ still apply fully¹⁹.

INSKEEP: I guess we should also note that Ukrainian forces have struck Crimea, which the rest of the world recognized as part of Ukraine but which Russia, years ago, claimed to have annexed to Russia, and that didn't draw nuclear retaliation. With all of that said, they are planning these referendums in the eastern parts of Ukraine. How would this all work?

RADCHENKO: Well, the referendums have been in the works for some time. You know, obviously, Putin was hoping to be doing better at this stage of the war. And then when the Ukrainians launched counteroffensive, it seemed like the time was not right for the referendum. But they decided²⁰ to go ahead anyway. So they're holding them between the 23 and the 27 of September in four regions, four parts of eastern Ukraine - obviously, DNR and LNR, the two statelets, the two unrecognized republics, and also the freshly occupied Russian territories of Kherson and parts of Zaporizhzhia.

INSKEEP: Just very briefly²¹, Putin claimed his enemies were intent on, quote, "weakening, isolating²² and destroying Russia." Ironically, isn't that statement true now that Putin has invaded another country?

RADCHENKO: Well, obviously, Putin has cornered himself. And, you know, he's been given plenty of opportunities, actually, to get off, to disappear, as it were, to get out of Ukraine. He has missed every opportunity. He has decided to double down. And yes, Russia finds itself very much cornered.

INSKEEP: Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins. Thanks so much.

RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 par   

n.标准，票面价值，平均数量；adj.票面的，平常的，标准的

参考例句：

• Sales of nylon have been below par in recent years.近年来尼龙织品的销售额一直不及以往。
• I don't think his ability is on a par with yours.我认为他的能力不能与你的能力相媲美。

3 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

4 annex   

vt.兼并，吞并；n.附属建筑物

参考例句：

• It plans to annex an England company in order to enlarge the market.它计划兼并一家英国公司以扩大市场。
• The annex has been built on to the main building.主楼配建有附属的建筑物。

5 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

6 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

7 quota   

n.（生产、进出口等的）配额，（移民的）限额

参考例句：

• A restricted import quota was set for meat products.肉类产品设定了进口配额。
• He overfulfilled his production quota for two months running.他一连两个月超额完成生产指标。

8 wariness   

n. 注意,小心

参考例句：

• The British public's wariness of opera is an anomaly in Europe. 英国公众对歌剧不大轻易接受的态度在欧洲来说很反常。
• There certainly is a history of wariness about using the R-word. 历史表明绝对应当谨慎使用“衰退”一词。

9 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

10 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

11 bluff   

v.虚张声势，用假象骗人；n.虚张声势，欺骗

参考例句：

• His threats are merely bluff.他的威胁仅仅是虚张声势。
• John is a deep card.No one can bluff him easily.约翰是个机灵鬼。谁也不容易欺骗他。

12 bluffing   

n. 威吓，唬人 动词bluff的现在分词形式

参考例句：

• I don't think he'll shoot—I think he's just bluffing. 我认为他不会开枪—我想他不过是在吓唬人。
• He says he'll win the race, but he's only bluffing. 他说他会赢得这场比赛，事实上只是在吹牛。

13 territorial   

adj.领土的，领地的

参考例句：

• The country is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity.该国在为保持领土的完整而进行斗争。
• They were not allowed to fish in our territorial waters.不允许他们在我国领海捕鱼。

14 annexed   

[法] 附加的，附属的

参考例句：

• Germany annexed Austria in 1938. 1938年德国吞并了奥地利。
• The outlying villages were formally annexed by the town last year. 那些偏远的村庄于去年正式被并入该镇。

15 specified   

adj.特定的

参考例句：

• The architect specified oak for the wood trim. 那位建筑师指定用橡木做木饰条。
• It is generated by some specified means. 这是由某些未加说明的方法产生的。

16 retaliation   

n.报复，反击

参考例句：

• retaliation against UN workers 对联合国工作人员的报复
• He never said a single word in retaliation. 他从未说过一句反击的话。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 skeptical   

adj.怀疑的，多疑的

参考例句：

• Others here are more skeptical about the chances for justice being done.这里的其他人更为怀疑正义能否得到伸张。
• Her look was skeptical and resigned.她的表情是将信将疑而又无可奈何。

18 deterrence   

威慑，制止； 制止物，制止因素； 挽留的事物； 核威慑

参考例句：

• An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称，稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。

19 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

20 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

21 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

22 isolating   

adj.孤立的，绝缘的v.使隔离( isolate的现在分词 )；将…剔出（以便看清和单独处理）；使（某物质、细胞等）分离；使离析

参考例句：

• Colour filters are not very effective in isolating narrow spectral bands. 一些滤色片不能很有效地分离狭窄的光谱带。 来自辞典例句
• This became known as the streak method for isolating bacteria. 这个方法以后就称为分离细菌的划线法。 来自辞典例句