美国国家公共电台 NPR--The Fed says it'll keep raising interest rates until inflation goes down

The Fed says it'll keep raising interest rates until inflation goes down

Transcript¹

For the third time since June, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. Steve Inskeep talks to David Wessel of the Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center about the Fed's fight against inflation.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point yesterday. It's the latest of several moves designed to bring down inflation. And longtime Fed watcher David Wessel joins us. He directs the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution. David, good morning.

DAVID WESSEL: Good morning.

INSKEEP: So not long ago, rates were around zero. Now they're 3.75% Why?

WESSEL: Well, the Fed is playing catch-up. Inflation has proved much more persistent² than it had hoped and expected. It wants to drive inflation down before inflationary psychology³ takes hold and we all begin expecting 6-, 7-, 8% inflation. So even though some prices are falling, notably⁴ the price of gasoline, the latest data suggests that inflation is infecting almost every part of the U.S. economy, and the Fed is responding the only way it knows how - raising interest rates to increase the cost of borrowing so there's less spending, slowing overall demand to match the available supply. Here's how the Fed chair, Jay Powell, put it at a press conference yesterday.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

JEROME POWELL: We are focused on the thing I started with it, which is getting inflation back down to 2%. We can't fail to do that. If we were to fail to do that, that would be the thing that would be most painful for the people that we serve. So for now, that has to be our overarching focus.

INSKEEP: How much more are they going to have to push up rates in order to get inflation under control?

WESSEL: Well, they think a lot. The Fed official's projections⁵ issued yesterday foresee another one percentage point or one-and-a-quarter percentage point interest rates before the end of this year and further increases in 2023. Jay Powell repeatedly talked about the need for what he called restrictive monetary⁶ policy. So he used the word 11 times in his press conference. And that means raising interest rates high enough to reduce the demand for things, demand for services and demand for workers. Basically, the Fed thinks the economy is growing too fast, and it's hitting the brakes. And interestingly, central banks around the world are doing the same - Europe, Switzerland. Just today, the United Kingdom, the Bank of England, raised interest rates.

INSKEEP: Well, let me ask about the Fed situation here. In the past, they had a mandate⁷ to hold down inflation, which means if they had to choke off the economy and drive us into a recession, well, that was their job, and they were going to do that. They now have this dual⁸ mandate - hold down inflation, also try to hold up employment. Are they willing still to push us into recession, and do they have to?

WESSEL: So you're right, the Fed has had a dual mandate for years - maximum employment and price stability. And right now they are saying we think we need to focus on the price stability goal. They are saying we want to slow the economy so much that unemployment will rise. In fact, they projected that unemployment, which is now at a very low historically 3.7%, is going to go to 4.5% next year. That would mean they expect that they will have a million more unemployed⁹ workers next year than we have now. They think this is the price of getting inflation down. And Jay Powell was explicit¹⁰. This is going to be painful.

INSKEEP: And I guess we should be explicit about who will have the pain. Workers have been able to demand more raises, sometimes easily change jobs. That would become more difficult under this scenario¹¹.

WESSEL: Absolutely. That's part of the Fed plan. That's how the Fed works. The housing market's taking a hit. Mortgage rates have already doubled from 3% to 6%. And so the Fed is basically saying that economy is growing too fast. That's pushing up prices. Our job is to get it down. That's what the Congress has told us to do.

INSKEEP: David, thanks so much for your insight. It's always a pleasure talking with you.

WESSEL: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

3 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

4 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

5 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

6 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

7 mandate   

n.托管地；命令，指示

参考例句：

• The President had a clear mandate to end the war.总统得到明确的授权结束那场战争。
• The General Election gave him no such mandate.大选并未授予他这种权力。

8 dual   

adj.双的；二重的，二元的

参考例句：

• The people's Republic of China does not recognize dual nationality for any Chinese national.中华人民共和国不承认中国公民具有双重国籍。
• He has dual role as composer and conductor.他兼作曲家及指挥的双重身分。

9 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

10 explicit   

adj.详述的，明确的；坦率的；显然的

参考例句：

• She was quite explicit about why she left.她对自己离去的原因直言不讳。
• He avoids the explicit answer to us.他避免给我们明确的回答。

11 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。