美国国家公共电台 NPR--For months experts have been warning of a recession. Is that risk fading?

For months experts have been warning of a recession. Is that risk fading?

Transcript¹

Many analysts² and economic experts have told us to expect a recession. NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Moody's Analytics chief economist³ Mark Zandi, who says there has been some recent good economic news.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

For months now, many analysts and experts who study the economy have told us to expect a recession. Inflation has been high. Some industries are cutting costs and laying off thousands of people, preparing for harder times. But Mark Zandi says now some signs point the other way. He's the chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Good morning, Mark.

MARK ZANDI: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: So what evidence suggests that we might be OK?

ZANDI: Well, it all boils down to inflation. Inflation has been our No. 1 problem. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates very aggressively in an effort to quell⁴ that inflation. And we're getting some good news there. We're seeing oil prices down, natural gas, other commodity prices. The economy's doing a good job adjusting to the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier in the year that's the cause of the higher - previously⁵ higher oil prices. We're also getting good news out of China. They're ending their no-COVID policy, and that's key to supply chains and getting prices down for a lot of products that got disrupted during the pandemic. And I guess also important is wage growth in certain parts of the economy starting to moderate. And that's really important with regard to service price inflation in sectors⁷ that are very labor⁸ intensive, like health care and hospitality. So lots of good news on the inflation front, and that's key to keeping interest rates from rising much more. And that's key to avoiding recession.

FADEL: So if it's not a recession, what is it? And we're completely out of the woods?

ZANDI: Good question. You know, it's important not to be Pollyannish here. I mean, it's going to be a tough year dead ahead. So some people have been calling it a soft landing. It just doesn't feel like an apt description of what's dead ahead of us. It's going to be uncomfortable at times. So not a recession - we're not going backwards⁹ - but it feels like economy that's going nowhere fast. So I call it a slowcession.

FADEL: A slowcession. If inflation is fading, as you mentioned, does that mean the Federal Reserve can just stop raising interest rates at this point?

ZANDI: I don't think are going to stop now. They've got - they've told markets and investors¹⁰ and everybody else that they're going to raise rates at least a couple more times. So I think they'll follow through on that. But the good news, Leila, is I think that will be the end of it. So a couple more rate hikes, quarter point each time - that would put the fund rate target, the interest rate they control, at 5%. And I think that should do it. And if that's the case, then we've got a really good chance of getting through this without going into recession.

FADEL: And what does that mean for regular people? I mean, right now we're seeing these layoffs¹¹, these cost-cutting measures to get ready for a possible recession. Does that mean that will stop?

ZANDI: Well, layoffs are actually quite low. I mean, they're high in the tech sector⁶, parts of financial services, media. You know, we're seeing it. But across the economy, layoffs are about as low as they've ever been. I would expect them to pick up. You know, again, the economy's not going to get through this without some struggles. So we'll see higher layoffs. But I don't think we're going to get the kind of layoffs that would be consistent with lots of job loss, and that would be recession. So it's going to be uncomfortable, more layoffs, but not something that is consistent with lots of lost jobs and much higher unemployment.

FADEL: The House Republicans are threatening not to raise the U.S. debt limit. Is it possible that the government could provoke a recession?

ZANDI: Yeah, great point. You know, the economy is going to be vulnerable in the next 12, 18 months. And to get through without a downturn, we need a little bit of luck. We can't get hit by another shock, like the pandemic or the Russian invasion. And a breach¹² of the debt limit, which is, you know, coming up here this summer - if we actually stop at the Treasury¹³ and the government stops paying its bills on time - that would be a big shock. And it would, even in a strong economy, would push us into recession. Given the vulnerable economy that we're living with, that would be very catastrophic. So lawmakers got to get this done on time.

FADEL: Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Thanks, Mark.

ZANDI: Thank you.

(SOUNDBITE OF JOWP SONG, "TYPICAL SPANISH RAPPER")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 quell   

v.压制，平息，减轻

参考例句：

• Soldiers were sent in to quell the riots.士兵们被派去平息骚乱。
• The armed force had to be called out to quell violence.不得不出动军队来镇压暴力行动。

5 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

6 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

7 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

8 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

9 backwards   

adv.往回地，向原处，倒，相反，前后倒置地

参考例句：

• He turned on the light and began to pace backwards and forwards.他打开电灯并开始走来走去。
• All the girls fell over backwards to get the party ready.姑娘们迫不及待地为聚会做准备。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 layoffs   

临时解雇( layoff的名词复数 )； 停工，停止活动

参考例句：

• Textile companies announced 2000 fresh layoffs last week. 各纺织公司上周宣布再次裁员两千人。
• Stock prices broke when the firm suddenly announced layoffs. 当公司突然宣布裁员时，股票价格便大跌

12 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

13 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。