美国国家公共电台 NPR--The U.S. economy did well in 2022, however, recession fears are growing

The U.S. economy did well in 2022, however, recession fears are growing

Transcript¹

The U.S. economy grew at a healthy clip in the final months of last year, but forecasters expect that to slow in 2023.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

No matter where the U.S. economy goes this year, it seems to have had a running start. We learned this morning that the economy grew at a relatively² rapid clip in the final months of 2022. NPR's Scott Horsley is here. Scott, good morning.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE³: Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: So what have you learned?

HORSLEY: Well, we know that the economy shrank in the first six months of last year, but by late summer and early fall, it had really started to rebound⁴. GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.9% in October, November and December. That's only a little bit slower than the three months before. All in all, it looks like the economy managed to stay afloat last year, despite all the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the pandemic. Consumers kept spending, even if they had to dip into savings⁵ or use their credit cards to keep up with rising prices. But forecasters do think that's going to slow down. People like Nikki Moore, a married mother of two in Florida, are starting to get a little more cautious with their spending as money gets tight.

NIKKI MOORE: Everyday stuff is just costing more. We enjoy going to the movies, but, like, the four of us going to the movies - we're just talking nothing super, not 3D, just the four of us for tickets and concessions⁶ - that's, like, a hundred dollars just for a movie night.

HORSLEY: Last year, Moore and her husband splurged on a 10th anniversary trip to Canada. But looking ahead to her son's upcoming spring break, she's planning to stay closer to home. Maybe, she says, they'll just take a trip to the local zoo. So that'll mean a smaller credit card bill, but when you multiply that by families across the country, it will also put some dent⁷ in economic growth because consumer spending's such a big driver of the economy.

INSKEEP: Do the numbers show that that is being multiplied by families all across the country?

HORSLEY: They do. Consumer spending grew more slowly in the last three months of 2022 than the previous three months. Retail⁸ sales were actually down in November and December during the busy holiday season, and there are definitely signs that high prices are starting to affect people's shopping habits. Dan Usher⁹ works for a company in Iowa that makes discount cereal. As overall cereal prices jumped nearly 16% last year, Usher says that discount business was pretty good.

DAN USHER: Last year was very wild. Because of inflation, a lot of consumers decided¹⁰ to switch to private label, which is the store brand, which is what we make. In times of economic hardship, we see pretty significant booms in business. So I'm kind of lucky in that regard.

HORSLEY: Usher is hoping to get a pay raise later this year, but in the meantime, he's also feeling the pinch of rising prices. He had some unexpected expenses this past year when both his water heater and his dishwasher conked out. So he's pinching pennies as well and says he plans to cut back on restaurant meals and maybe travel a little bit less.

INSKEEP: Scott, a couple of days ago on this program, we heard from Mark Zandi, he - the economist¹¹. He spoke¹² with Leila Fadel. He was saying that he felt recession was now unlikely in the year that's now beginning, even though some tough economic times could be in there. What do other economists¹³ think?

HORSLEY: There's a range of views. A recent survey found a majority of business forecasters still think a recession is likely this year. But there are analysts¹⁴ like Zandi who think we will limp along, that the economy will slow down, but not actually shift into reverse. We are definitely seeing a downshift in some parts of the economy, notably¹⁵ manufacturing and housing. Housing was a drag on GDP at the end of last year. Doug Duncan, who's chief economist at the mortgage giant Fannie Mae, says because of rising mortgage rates, the housing market's already in a recession.

DOUG DUNCAN: It will be a difficult year. Some time in '24, it would be our anticipation¹⁶ that you'd start to see the pickup¹⁷.

HORSLEY: Of course, the Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation, and we expect another rate hike next week.

INSKEEP: NPR's Scott Horsley, we remain bullish on your reporting. Thanks so much.

HORSLEY: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

5 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

6 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

7 dent   

n.凹痕，凹坑；初步进展

参考例句：

• I don't know how it came about but I've got a dent in the rear of my car.我不知道是怎么回事，但我的汽车后部有了一个凹痕。
• That dent is not big enough to be worth hammering out.那个凹陷不大，用不着把它锤平。

8 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

9 usher   

n.带位员，招待员；vt.引导，护送；vi.做招待，担任引座员

参考例句：

• The usher seated us in the front row.引座员让我们在前排就座。
• They were quickly ushered away.他们被迅速领开。

10 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

11 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

12 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

13 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

16 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

17 pickup   

n.拾起，获得

参考例句：

• I would love to trade this car for a pickup truck.我愿意用这辆汽车换一辆小型轻便卡车。||The luck guy is a choice pickup for the girls.那位幸运的男孩是女孩子们想勾搭上的人。