美国国家公共电台 NPR--U.S. should be concerned about Russia ending arms treaty participation, expert says

U.S. should be concerned about Russia ending arms treaty participation¹, expert says

Transcript²

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Sarah Bidgood of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies about the arms control agreement known as New START, which Russia's president says he's suspending.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

We have a few more insights now from Sarah Bidgood, who is with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, which means a moment like this is her business. Welcome to the program.

SARAH BIDGOOD: Thank you.

INSKEEP: Can you educate me on how bad things could quickly get if things were to go south? We heard from Geoff that each side has 1,500 nuclear weapons deployed³ and ready to go or close to being deployed and ready to go. How many others do they have back on the shelf somewhere?

BIDGOOD: Oh, it's a great question, Steve. I mean, I think things are really not looking great right now from my perspective. As you heard at the top, this is really the last arms control treaty in place between the United States and Russia. And arms control plays a crucial role in preventing the kinds of arms racing⁴ that you heard Geoff talk about in his intro. So this is, you know, something that we should definitely be worried about. And it's something to which both sides should be closely attentive⁵.

INSKEEP: But do - what I want to know is, does each side still have, as was the case during the Cold War, thousands of additional weapons lying around somewhere that they could bring out of storage?

BIDGOOD: Yes, that's definitely something that could happen.

INSKEEP: And when you hear an analyst⁶ say, well, Russia doesn't actually want that, it makes me think perhaps they're just taking a symbolic⁷ step of suspending their participation. But they're not going to really change anything. Are you reassured⁸?

BIDGOOD: Not particularly because the way in which Russia has framed its suspension of participation in the New START treaty is as a political decision. They're really making it clear that this is a decision that's based on sort of the changing political environment with the United States against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

And so yes, while in principle I've heard some analysts⁹ point out that this is a potentially reversible decision - it's not withdraw, it's suspension - the conditions under which I think Russia would be inclined to rejoin participation are not ones that I think the U.S. would sort of be interested in. They're things like showing political will and a conscientious¹⁰ effort towards general de-escalation. To me, it sounds like Russia is essentially¹¹ interested in holding the treaty hostage to change the U.S. position with respect to the war in Ukraine, which is leaving me feeling quite pessimistic.

INSKEEP: Wait a minute. When you say hold the treaty hostage, I imagine Putin saying, lovely little planet you got there, be a shame if anything happened to it. Is that what's going on here?

BIDGOOD: Well, I think - I mean, I think it's more the case that Russia is making it clear that they're not necessarily willing to wall things like arms control off from the broader political environment and the broader ups and downs in the U.S.-Russian relationship, which really represents, you know, a change from the Cold War. In the Cold War, we often saw moments where the U.S. and Russia or the U.S. and Soviet¹² relationship was quite bad. But still, arms control, nonproliferation cooperation were able to move forward. In the current environment, what I'm hearing from the Kremlin and what we hear coming from Putin is that that's no longer really the case. These two things are now linked.

INSKEEP: I'm thinking about the way that U.S. military officials, when they think about Russia, they like to communicate. They want predictability. They want open channels of communication. They want to know what each other is doing to avoid misunderstandings. And with that in mind, I took note when Geoff told us a moment ago that Russia is ending inspections¹³ of military bases. How big a deal is it that each side would then have less visibility into what the other side might or might not be doing?

BIDGOOD: Yeah, that's a great point, Steve. I think you've hit the nail on the head. So when on-site inspections go away, which, you know, to be honest, those were already - Russia had already prohibited those before Putin made his announcement on Tuesday that they were suspending participation. But when you don't have on-site inspections, you do lose this visibility, just as you said, into sort of what is happening on the other side with respect to the other side's strategic arsenal¹⁴.

And I think it's important to note here that that does a couple of things. I mean, for one thing, it can, on the U.S. side, decrease confidence about what Russia is doing. They claim they're going to comply with the treaty limits, even though they're suspending their participation in the treaty itself. But how do we actually know that's happening if we don't have on-site inspections and we don't have data exchanges? But I think the other...

INSKEEP: I don't want to terrify everybody. Oh, no, go on, go on. Finish your point.

BIDGOOD: The other thing I was going to say is that in addition, you know, those opportunities to interact with your counterparts on the other side also provide important channels for, you know, confidence building, for regular communication that isn't necessarily happening in today's environment. So you're losing a couple of different things there when the on-site inspections go away.

INSKEEP: Does the loss of information force American decision-makers, in some potential future crisis, force them to make decisions differently because they can't be sure what the other side might be doing?

BIDGOOD: I think the answer to that would be, you know, not necessarily so much in a crisis per se. But I would say, with respect to making decisions about, you know, military buildups and things like that, arms racing, in an environment where you're not really clear on what the other side is doing, that can lead you to make decisions where you just want to hedge all of your bets because you're not really clear on what's happening with your adversary¹⁵...

INSKEEP: Oh, by spending a lot of money. And that happened during the Cold War for sure.

BIDGOOD: ...For example. (Laughter) Exactly.

INSKEEP: Sarah Bidgood, thanks so much.

BIDGOOD: Thank you.

INSKEEP: She's with the Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

1 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

4 racing   

n.竞赛，赛马；adj.竞赛用的，赛马用的

参考例句：

• I was watching the racing on television last night.昨晚我在电视上看赛马。
• The two racing drivers fenced for a chance to gain the lead.两个赛车手伺机竞相领先。

5 attentive   

adj.注意的，专心的；关心(别人)的，殷勤的

参考例句：

• She was very attentive to her guests.她对客人招待得十分周到。
• The speaker likes to have an attentive audience.演讲者喜欢注意力集中的听众。

6 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

7 symbolic   

adj.象征性的，符号的，象征主义的

参考例句：

• It is symbolic of the fighting spirit of modern womanhood.它象征着现代妇女的战斗精神。
• The Christian ceremony of baptism is a symbolic act.基督教的洗礼仪式是一种象征性的做法。

8 reassured   

adj.使消除疑虑的；使放心的v.再保证，恢复信心( reassure的过去式和过去分词)

参考例句：

• The captain's confidence during the storm reassured the passengers. 在风暴中船长的信念使旅客们恢复了信心。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The doctor reassured the old lady. 医生叫那位老妇人放心。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

10 conscientious   

adj.审慎正直的，认真的，本着良心的

参考例句：

• He is a conscientious man and knows his job.他很认真负责，也很懂行。
• He is very conscientious in the performance of his duties.他非常认真地履行职责。

11 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

12 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

13 inspections   

n.检查( inspection的名词复数 )；检验；视察；检阅

参考例句：

• Regular inspections are carried out at the prison. 经常有人来视察这座监狱。
• Government inspections ensure a high degree of uniformity in the standard of service. 政府检查确保了在服务标准方面的高度一致。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

15 adversary   

adj.敌手，对手

参考例句：

• He saw her as his main adversary within the company.他将她视为公司中主要的对手。
• They will do anything to undermine their adversary's reputation.他们会不择手段地去损害对手的名誉。