美国国家公共电台 NPR--The impact of the Ukraine war on food supplies: 'It could have been so much worse'

The impact of the Ukraine war on food supplies: 'It could have been so much worse'

Transcript¹

"Extremely worried."

"The timing² couldn't have been worse"

Those were some of the concerns that NPR heard last year from experts on global food security after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Taken together the two countries supply a major share of the world's wheat and other food products.

So there was widespread fear the war would lead to a surge in food prices – and dramatic worsening of world hunger.

But a year later the worst predictions have not come to pass.

To understand why, NPR spoke³ with Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Here are four takeaways:

The initial impact on food prices was indeed massive.

Glauber noted⁴ that before the war, Russia and Ukraine's combined wheat production accounted for about a third of global need. The two nations are also important sources of fertilizer, cooking oil and feed grains such as corn. And they are particularly important suppliers to numerous countries in the Middle East and Africa.

So when Russia invaded Ukraine, "all of a sudden the concern was that you had both [countries] potentially being knocked out of the global market," said Glauber. And because most planting of, for instance, wheat, is done in the fall, farmers in countries outside of Russia and Ukraine "didn't really have a chance to adjust and plant more. The crop had already been planted."

Adding to the challenge was the fact that global food prices were already at record highs due to a spate⁵ of previous droughts and poor harvests in other countries that are also important suppliers – including the United States. With food stocks so tight, there wasn't going to be a cushion to deal with a sudden drop in supply from Russia and Ukraine.

The result, said Glauber, is that in the first couple of months after Russia invaded, "food prices were quite high and quite volatile⁶. Wheat futures⁷ jumped almost 60%. Corn and soybeans were up 15 to 20% in the first week or so."

It didn't help, added Glauber, that at various points during this period many food-producing countries responded to the invasion by banning exports of an assortment⁸ of locally produced foodstuffs⁹ in order to conserve¹⁰ their supply for domestic use.

For instance, Indonesia briefly¹¹ barred export of palm oil – which accounts for 60% of the world's vegetable oil. And India temporarily suspended export of what looked to be an unusually large crop of wheat.

Altogether the export bans "affected¹² somewhere around 15% of agricultural trade at one point," said Glauber. "And that only exacerbated¹³ the price volatility¹⁴."

But a spate of good harvests soon changed the picture.

Yet, says Glauber, "It could have been so much worse."

That's because by spring, both the price hikes and the export bans started to ease as it became clear that climatic conditions favored much better wheat harvests than in years past.

"There was a big rebound¹⁵ in production in the northern plains of the United States and in Canada," said Glauber. "And Europe actually had a very good harvest."

But the biggest bumper¹⁶ crop by far was in Russia – which lucked into a record-breaking 22% boost in its wheat production over the prior year. And while many nations have imposed sanctions on Russia in retaliation¹⁷ for its invasion of Ukraine, they have chosen to exempt¹⁸ Russia's export of food products.

While Glauber thinks this was the right call, he says the situation does pose a "conundrum¹⁹."

"It means that Russia is profiting, in fact, from a war that they're largely responsible for," he said.

A remarkable²⁰ deal between Russia and Ukraine has also helped.

By contrast Ukraine's crops have taken a big hit.

"About 25 to 35% of Ukraine's historical wheat production was in areas now occupied by Russia," said Glauber. "And over the last year wheat production has been off by about 35%.

Still, he said, the amount that Ukrainian farmers did manage to produce amounts to "a sizable harvest given the adversity that they faced. It's really a testament²¹ to them."

And they have been able to export it as a result of an agreement that Turkey brokered²² between Russia and Ukraine last August. This "Black Sea Grain Initiative" allows both nations to continue sending ships bearing grain through ports there.

The arrangement is hardly ideal, said Glauber. It requires each country to send inspectors²³ to certify²⁴ that the ships are only carrying grain. "And Ukraine claims that Russia hasn't set enough inspectors" – causing costly²⁵ delays that cut into Ukraine's profits.

At the same time, said Glauber, "it's amazing" that the agreement exists at all. "I mean you have an active war going on. Within hours of the agreement being signed, a rocket hit Odessa," he said. "So I think a lot of people thought that it wouldn't really have much impact or that it would be a short-lived treaty. But in fact, here we are, several months later with grain moving through those ports."

There is still a risk of price surges in the months ahead.

That said, the Black Sea agreement expires next month. So, Glauber said, "if Russia were to pull out then we're right back to a point where very little of that grain that's in Ukraine would actually make it to the rest of the world."

What's more, while food prices reverted²⁶ to pre-invasion levels for much of the past year, those levels are still a record high compared to the last decade.

This has exacerbated numerous ongoing²⁷ hunger crises in places ranging from Yemen to the Horn of Africa. According to estimates by the World Food Programme, dozens of countries are experiencing double digit²⁸ food inflation, and 349 million people across 79 countries are currently considered "acutely food insecure."

Sponsor Message

Among the drivers of this continuation in high prices, said Glauber, is the fact that, notwithstanding all the strong harvests of the past year, "what we weren't able to do is have so much additional harvest that we were able to rebuild stocks. So as we're starting this year, the forecasts for stocks are about the same as for what we were holding last year."

In other words, the world remains²⁹ in a somewhat precarious³⁰ situation where, if just one thing goes wrong — a worsening twist to the war in Ukraine, a bad harvest in some important supplying nation – global food prices could spike³¹.

Glauber said, so far, the climactic signs are at least pointing to another round of decent harvests.

But once again, he said, "we don't have a lot of cushion."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

3 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

4 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

5 spate   

n.泛滥，洪水，突然的一阵

参考例句：

• Police are investigating a spate of burglaries in the area.警察正在调查这一地区发生的大量盗窃案。
• Refugees crossed the border in full spate.难民大量地越过了边境。

6 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

7 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

8 assortment   

n.分类，各色俱备之物，聚集

参考例句：

• This shop has a good assortment of goods to choose from.该店各色货物俱全，任君选择。
• She was wearing an odd assortment of clothes.她穿着奇装异服。

9 foodstuffs   

食物，食品( foodstuff的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Imports of foodstuffs accounted for a small proportion of total imports. 食物进口仅占总进口额的一小部份。
• Many basic foodstuffs, such as bread and milk, are tax-free. 许多基本食物如牛奶和面包是免税的。

10 conserve   

vt.保存，保护，节约，节省，守恒，不灭

参考例句：

• He writes on both sides of the sheet to conserve paper.他在纸张的两面都写字以节省用纸。
• Conserve your energy,you'll need it!保存你的精力，你会用得着的！

11 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

12 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

13 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

15 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

16 bumper   

n.(汽车上的)保险杠；adj.特大的，丰盛的

参考例句：

• The painting represents the scene of a bumper harvest.这幅画描绘了丰收的景象。
• This year we have a bumper harvest in grain.今年我们谷物丰收。

17 retaliation   

n.报复，反击

参考例句：

• retaliation against UN workers 对联合国工作人员的报复
• He never said a single word in retaliation. 他从未说过一句反击的话。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 exempt   

adj.免除的；v.使免除；n.免税者，被免除义务者

参考例句：

• These goods are exempt from customs duties.这些货物免征关税。
• He is exempt from punishment about this thing.关于此事对他已免于处分。

19 conundrum   

n.谜语；难题

参考例句：

• Let me give you some history about a conundrum.让我给你们一些关于谜题的历史。
• Scientists had focused on two explanations to solve this conundrum.科学家已锁定两种解释来解开这个难题。

20 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

21 testament   

n.遗嘱；证明

参考例句：

• This is his last will and testament.这是他的遗愿和遗嘱。
• It is a testament to the power of political mythology.这说明，编造政治神话可以产生多大的威力。

22 brokered   

adj.由权力经纪人安排（或控制）的v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的过去式和过去分词 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• a peace plan brokered by the UN 由联合国出面协商的和平计划
• Your husband brokered the deal to go in, transfrer the assets and get our man out. 你丈夫后来插了一脚，把生意都抢了过去，我们的人也被挤了出来。 来自电影对白

23 inspectors   

n.检查员( inspector的名词复数 )；（英国公共汽车或火车上的）查票员；（警察）巡官；检阅官

参考例句：

• They got into the school in the guise of inspectors. 他们假装成视察员进了学校。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Inspectors checked that there was adequate ventilation. 检查员已检查过，通风良好。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 certify   

vt.证明，证实；发证书(或执照)给

参考例句：

• I can certify to his good character.我可以证明他品德好。
• This swimming certificate is to certify that I can swim one hundred meters.这张游泳证是用以证明我可以游100米远。

25 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

26 reverted   

恢复( revert的过去式和过去分词 )； 重提； 回到…上； 归还

参考例句：

• After the settlers left, the area reverted to desert. 早期移民离开之后，这个地区又变成了一片沙漠。
• After his death the house reverted to its original owner. 他死后房子归还给了原先的主人。

27 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

28 digit   

n.零到九的阿拉伯数字，手指，脚趾

参考例句：

• Her telephone number differs from mine by one digit.她的电话号码和我的只差一个数字。
• Many animals have five digits.许多动物有5趾。

29 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

30 precarious   

adj.不安定的，靠不住的；根据不足的

参考例句：

• Our financial situation had become precarious.我们的财务状况已变得不稳定了。
• He earned a precarious living as an artist.作为一个艺术家，他过得是朝不保夕的生活。

31 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。