美国国家公共电台 NPR--How will a divided government set budget priorities for the decade to come?

How will a divided government set budget priorities for the decade to come?

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to economist² Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who served in the George W. Bush White House, and led the nonpartisan congressional budget office, about how the proposal is being received.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

President Biden submitted a budget to Congress. Republicans have already said whatever budget they pass, it's not going to be that. So how will a divided government set priorities for a decade to come? We have an outside view from Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who served in the administration of President George W. Bush and also led the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office once upon a time. Mr. Holtz-Eakin, welcome back.

DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, thank you.

INSKEEP: OK. Big picture here - pandemic spending has been winding³ down. And the Biden administration says, we're ready now to restrain spending and cut borrowing and cut the deficit⁴ over time. Does his budget really do that?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: No. The spending proposed for next year would exceed the largest amount during the pandemic. So what used to be an emergency is now business as usual. The president is advertising⁵ $3 trillion in deficit reduction, but that comes from raising taxes by about $5 trillion over the next 10 years. That's a nonstarter in Congress. He couldn't get the same taxes through when Democrats⁶ controlled both houses. So this is not a budget that's going to solve our debt and deficit problem. Indeed, even taken at face value, we have $24 trillion in debt outstanding. This would add another 19 over the next 10 years. So it's not really a stringent⁷ fiscal⁸ budget.

INSKEEP: Why wouldn't Republicans at least think about a tax increase from time to time? If taxes are going to go down, they sometimes must have to go up.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Republicans for a long time now have not cared about increasing taxes. And they certainly haven't shown any interest in controlling deficits⁹. So there's a lot of talk that's different in 2023. But we'll see if any Congress actually gets serious about taking on our fiscal problems.

INSKEEP: Mr. Holtz-Eakin, I hope the sirens are not coming for you as we talk on this Friday morning.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: I am half a block from the White House. And there's always the noise. My apologies.

INSKEEP: Oh, OK. OK. No, it's quite all right. It's quite all right. It's part of the scenery here.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: (Laughter).

INSKEEP: You mentioned that Republicans don't care about raising taxes. I get that. I'd like to know if Republicans really care at all about the deficit. I know they say they do. But when they were in power a few years ago, they did a monumental tax cut that was not financed. Isn't it true that Republicans literally¹⁰ don't care at all about the deficit except when they can use it against a Democratic president?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: There's no evidence that either side has cared about deficits in the 21st century. I mean, it's really been quite striking. We've seen the debt rise, even measured relative to the size of the growing economy, essentially¹¹ nonstop for the entire 21st century for two decades. So that can't continue. And the question is, when is it going to turn the corner? And which party is going to take the lead?

INSKEEP: Are you convinced that the sirens are coming - hopefully it's not the debt police.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: (Laughter).

INSKEEP: But are you convinced there is a point? I mean, there have been some economists¹² in recent years who've basically said, maybe the debt doesn't matter; maybe it can go up infinitely¹³ or a lot farther than it has.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: I'm not in that camp. The debt matters in the following very simple way. The debt is used to get money from the private sector¹⁴ and use it in the government. And when it does that, if you take a private sector investment and plow¹⁵ it into a government investment, you lose about half the rate of return. Most of the time when the government takes money, it doesn't invest. It simply supports additional spending and lifestyle. That's the point of Social Security. That's the point of Medicare. And so our propensity¹⁶ to borrow and spend in this way is a headwind to investing in the economy and generating greater prosperity in the future. We pay a little bit every day.

INSKEEP: You're reminding us if you borrow money to invest in something, that can be good. If you borrow money to pay your day-to-day bills, it may not be so good. I want to ask one more question, though. House Republicans have said they're not going to pay existing U.S. bills, raise the debt ceiling, unless they get cuts to the budget, which they haven't been willing to specify¹⁷. Is that a wise way to approach this?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: The debt limit has to go up. There's simply no way around that. Failure to raise it will lead to a default on U.S. treasuries¹⁸ and just an enormous amount of financial chaos¹⁹ in the economic downturn. So they can say that, but they will raise the debt limit. They have to.

INSKEEP: Douglas Holtz-Eakin, you got a lot of intelligence and some sirens in four minutes. Thanks so much.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Thank you.

INSKEEP: He's an economist who served in the George W. Bush White House and is now president of the American Action Forum²⁰.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 winding   

n.绕，缠，绕组，线圈

参考例句：

• A winding lane led down towards the river.一条弯弯曲曲的小路通向河边。
• The winding trail caused us to lose our orientation.迂回曲折的小道使我们迷失了方向。

4 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

5 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

6 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 stringent   

adj.严厉的；令人信服的；银根紧的

参考例句：

• Financiers are calling for a relaxation of these stringent measures.金融家呼吁对这些严厉的措施予以放宽。
• Some of the conditions in the contract are too stringent.合同中有几项条件太苛刻。

8 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

9 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

10 literally   

adv.照字面意义，逐字地；确实

参考例句：

• He translated the passage literally.他逐字逐句地翻译这段文字。
• Sometimes she would not sit down till she was literally faint.有时候，她不走到真正要昏厥了，决不肯坐下来。

11 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

12 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 infinitely   

adv.无限地，无穷地

参考例句：

• There is an infinitely bright future ahead of us.我们有无限光明的前途。
• The universe is infinitely large.宇宙是无限大的。

14 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

15 plow   

n.犁，耕地，犁过的地；v.犁，费力地前进[英]plough

参考例句：

• At this time of the year farmers plow their fields.每年这个时候农民们都在耕地。
• We will plow the field soon after the last frost.最后一场霜过后，我们将马上耕田。

16 propensity   

n.倾向；习性

参考例句：

• He has a propensity for drinking too much alcohol.他有酗酒的倾向。
• She hasn't reckoned on his propensity for violence.她不曾料到他有暴力倾向。

17 specify   

vt.指定，详细说明

参考例句：

• We should specify a time and a place for the meeting.我们应指定会议的时间和地点。
• Please specify what you will do.请你详述一下你将做什么。

18 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

19 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

20 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。