美国国家公共电台 NPR--Tornado forecasts are more accurate. Why aren't they saving more lives?

Tornado¹ forecasts are more accurate. Why aren't they saving more lives?

Transcript²

America's tornado warning system is a patchwork³ of municipal sirens, cell phone alerts, and radio and TV messages. But even as forecasting for dangerous storms improves, people who live in rural areas too often miss the life-saving warnings.

Last month, a catastrophic tornado outbreak in Mississippi killed at least 26 people. A tornado rated 4 out of 5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale landed in Rolling Fork around 8 p.m. and was on the ground for an hour and 10 minutes, raging through the communities of Winona, Black Hawk⁴ and Silver City.

Victor Gensini, an associate professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, pins the rising probability of tragedies like Rolling Fork on multiple factors, including climate change, population growth, poverty, urban sprawl⁵, and weak construction.

"A disaster itself is really a function of two things," Gensini tells NPR. "Number one is the physical risk of the hazard in this case, a particular tornado, and also the human vulnerability component⁶ ... how humans build along the landscape, how we cluster, how strong our structures are."

In Rolling Fork, as in many parts of the U.S., people who live in mobile homes often have no basement for sheltering from a storm. And Gensini says more than half of all tornado fatalities⁷ occur in weak-frame housing, "basically, like mobile home structures."

Climate change may exacerbate⁸ that risk. As global temperatures rise, some climate models suggest that the weather patterns that fuel tornadoes⁹ could become more common. A study co-authored by Gensini and published this year by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) predicted that by the end of the century, the average annual number of supercells — rotating storms known for producing monster tornadoes — could increase by 6.6% in the eastern U.S.

It remains¹⁰ unclear whether climate change or advances in the ability to monitor and study storms like tornadoes is driving that expansion. But Gensini says concepts like tornado "alley¹¹" and tornado "season" are outdated¹² because they no longer capture how these storms behave.

"In reality, tornadoes don't really care what state it is, so to speak, and they certainly don't care what time of year it is," Gensini says. "There is a substantial climatological risk of tornadoes in most places east of the Rockies in the United States."

Luckily, Gensini says, improved forecasts for severe weather keep getting better. "Twenty years ago, we wouldn't even dream about trying to make a next day tornado forecast."

Why don't advanced tornado forecasts reach everyone?

"The science is there, the technology is there, the modeling is there, the forecasts are there. But we continue to see fatalities and casualties from these events because we're not getting across the finish line," Gensini says.

Experts say gaps in cell phone coverage¹³ and proximity¹⁴ to warning sirens and TV and radio play a part.

The National Weather Service (NWS) partners with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to send push alerts to smartphones when there is severe weather. But that only works with reliable cell service.

Kim Klockow-McClain, a senior scientist at The National Oceanic and Atmospheric¹⁵ Administration (NOAA) Centers for Environmental Prediction, says weather messaging is delivered and people are then left to make decisions about how they want to be warned - by a favorite weather forecaster, a phone vibration¹⁶, or a county siren. Klockow-McClain says warnings become a "social process."

"What we see is a lot of rural places receiving the poorest overall service, mainly in places that intersect with other social vulnerability factors like income and race," Klockow-McClain tells NPR.

Eleven minutes before last month's disaster in Mississippi, the NWS warned that a storm capable of producing tornadoes was headed for Rolling Fork. That warning triggered TV, radio and cell phone alerts, but residents of the small, predominantly Black city told The Washington Post they heard no warning sirens.

Even so, TV meteorologists interrupted March Madness to get the word out.

But Klockow-McClain, who used to work at the Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla., tells NPR communities can't always count on TV, because meteorologists may be under pressure to avoid breaking into primetime programming.

"Some station management has given meteorologists feedback in the past that they really want you to think about that," she says.

What about radio?

Sirens, Klockow-McClain says, are vital in rural, low-income communities. "Sirens can be a gap filler when nothing else is especially accessible or works well."

The AMS traces the history of the siren system to the Cold War when they were installed, not to warn about tornadoes, but to sound the alarm of an imminent¹⁷ attack. But the sirens are expensive to maintain and can't be heard everywhere.

For people out of siren or cell range, Klockow-McClain recommends a NOAA weather radio to sound an alarm. They're battery operated and come in a range of prices, starting at about the cost of a smoke and carbon monoxide detector¹⁸ for the home. But even though the weather service says it wants the radios to be as common as smoke detectors¹⁹, only about 3-4% of the population has one.

"NOAA weather radio ... transmits warnings automatically. You can select different hazard types that you're interested in. If you're just interested in tornadoes, you can set it to that," Klockow-McClain says. "It's been something the weather service has been trying to get disseminated²⁰ throughout the country for decades."

In Indiana, all new mobile homes are required by law to be equipped with a weather radio. The law honors 2-year-old C.J. Martin, who was killed in 2005 after a tornado tore through his mobile home community in the middle of the night. That storm killed 25 people.

Klockow-McClain says more people need to have a reliable warning system in their homes. "Especially at night when you really need something to reach out to you, NOAA weather radio is an amazing technology."

1 tornado   

n.飓风，龙卷风

参考例句：

• A tornado whirled into the town last week.龙卷风上周袭击了这座城市。
• The approaching tornado struck awe in our hearts.正在逼近的龙卷风使我们惊恐万分。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 patchwork   

n.混杂物；拼缝物

参考例句：

• That proposal is nothing else other than a patchwork.那个建议只是一个大杂烩而已。
• She patched new cloth to the old coat,so It'seemed mere patchwork. 她把新布初到那件旧上衣上，所以那件衣服看上去就象拼凑起来的东西。

4 hawk   

n.鹰，骗子；鹰派成员

参考例句：

• The hawk swooped down on the rabbit and killed it.鹰猛地朝兔子扑下来,并把它杀死。
• The hawk snatched the chicken and flew away.老鹰叼了小鸡就飞走了。

5 sprawl   

vi.躺卧，扩张，蔓延；vt.使蔓延；n.躺卧，蔓延

参考例句：

• In our garden,bushes are allowed to sprawl as they will.在我们园子里，灌木丛爱怎么蔓延就怎么蔓延。
• He is lying in a sprawl on the bed.他伸开四肢躺在床上。

6 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

7 fatalities   

n.恶性事故( fatality的名词复数 )；死亡；致命性；命运

参考例句：

• Several people were injured, but there were no fatalities. 有几个人受伤，但没有人死亡。
• The accident resulted in fatalities. 那宗意外道致多人死亡。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 exacerbate   

v.恶化，增剧，激怒，使加剧

参考例句：

• WMO says a warming climate can exacerbate air pollution.世界气象组织说，气候变暖可能会加剧空气污染。
• In fact efforts will merely exacerbate the current problem.实际上努力只会加剧当前的问题。

9 tornadoes   

n.龙卷风，旋风( tornado的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Tornadoes, severe earthquakes, and plagues create wide spread havoc. 龙卷风、大地震和瘟疫成普遍的毁坏。 来自互联网
• Meteorologists are at odds over the working of tornadoes. 气象学者对龙卷风的运动方式看法不一。 来自互联网

10 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

11 alley   

n.小巷，胡同；小径，小路

参考例句：

• We live in the same alley.我们住在同一条小巷里。
• The blind alley ended in a brick wall.这条死胡同的尽头是砖墙。

12 outdated   

adj.旧式的，落伍的，过时的；v.使过时

参考例句：

• That list of addresses is outdated,many have changed.那个通讯录已经没用了，许多地址已经改了。
• Many of us conform to the outdated customs laid down by our forebears.我们许多人都遵循祖先立下的过时习俗。

13 coverage   

n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖

参考例句：

• There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
• This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。

14 proximity   

n.接近，邻近

参考例句：

• Marriages in proximity of blood are forbidden by the law.法律规定禁止近亲结婚。
• Their house is in close proximity to ours.他们的房子很接近我们的。

15 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

16 vibration   

n.颤动，振动；摆动

参考例句：

• There is so much vibration on a ship that one cannot write.船上的震动大得使人无法书写。
• The vibration of the window woke me up.窗子的震动把我惊醒了。

17 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

18 detector   

n.发觉者，探测器

参考例句：

• The detector is housed in a streamlined cylindrical container.探测器安装在流线型圆柱形容器内。
• Please walk through the metal detector.请走过金属检测器。

19 detectors   

探测器( detector的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The report advocated that all buildings be fitted with smoke detectors. 报告主张所有的建筑物都应安装烟火探测器。
• This is heady wine for experimenters using these neutrino detectors. 对于使用中微子探测器的实验工作者，这是令人兴奋的美酒。 来自英汉非文学 - 科技

20 disseminated   

散布，传播( disseminate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Their findings have been widely disseminated . 他们的研究成果已经广为传播。
• Berkovitz had contracted polio after ingesting a vaccine disseminated under federal supervision. 伯考维茨在接种了在联邦监督下分发的牛痘疫苗后传染上脊髓灰质炎。