美国国家公共电台 NPR--Jack Lew had a front-row seat to debt ceiling fights under Obama. Here's his advice

Jack¹ Lew had a front-row seat to debt ceiling fights under Obama. Here's his advice

Transcript²

The Treasury³ Department warned this week that the U.S. could run out of cash to pay its bills as soon as June 1, unless Congress manages to raise the debt limit before then.

The debt limit is the amount of money that the federal government is authorized⁴ to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including tax refunds⁵, military salaries and Social Security and Medicare benefits.

Failing to increase it could have disastrous⁶ consequences for the domestic economy, and for global financial markets. Yet progress toward a resolution has been slow.

House Republicans want to tie a debt ceiling increase to cuts in federal spending and other policy changes, and narrowly passed a bill last week that would do just that. Meanwhile, Democrats⁷ — led by President Biden — insist that those conversations happen separately and are refusing to accept anything other than a "clean" debt ceiling bill.

President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders on May 9 to stress that point and discuss how to have separate negotiations⁹ about spending overall.

Jack Lew is familiar with this tightrope¹⁰ walk. As chief of staff and then treasury secretary under former President Barack Obama, Lew saw similar standoffs play out — and reach a resolution — in 2011 and 2013.

"[Biden is] in a position where he faces a Congress that is divided, a House that has made extreme demands really just to pay the bills for spending that's already been committed, and a history of being at the edge of the cliff not knowing how to resolve it," Lew tells Morning Edition's A Martínez.

One chapter in that high-stakes history book occurred in 2011, when the U.S. came within 72 hours of defaulting on its debt.

After weeks of negotiations failed, lawmakers managed to pass a plan (the "Budget Control Act") at the last minute — though neither party was entirely¹¹ pleased with it, and the close call rattled¹² the stock market and hiked up borrowing costs.

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"The fact that we almost didn't make it was terrifying," Lew remembers. "And coming out of that was the Budget Control Act, which is not good policy, but also the conviction that you couldn't get that close to the edge of the cliff ever again."

He offered some advice to the current administration.

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

I think ... it's the right thing to say you can't negotiate with a gun to your head, you can't negotiate over default, Congress has to raise the debt limit. But at the same time there's going to be a need to negotiate over fiscal¹³ policy, the spending bills for this year, and they should immediately shift the negotiation⁸ to the thing that they have to do without the consequences of default on the other side.

The history of these negotiations has gotten more and more polarized over the years. With one side willing to go right to the edge, you just can't take that risk.

On the short-term extension some Republicans have proposed

The fact that the spending year begins on Oct. 1 and the debt limit deadline appears to be as early as June 1 ... does create the problem that the most catastrophic fiscal consequence default comes before the funding of the government. And the thing that will have to be negotiated is the funding of the government. So there is an argument that to fund the government, figure out what you're able to do and then do the debt limit means you split the negotiations.

What we don't know is if after funding the government, the House has the ability and willingness to vote on the debt limit ... The question is, will the speaker of the House put on the floor a debt limit extension that can pass? And if there's a willingness to do that, the sequence would be better if the vote on spending bills came first.

On his 2011 experience with the debt limit

If you go back to 2011, when we really were as close to going over the cliff as we've ever been, it was a long process which began, if you remember, with President Obama and [House Speaker John] Boehner engaging in good-faith negotiations for what was called the "grand bargain." When that effort failed — and it failed because there just wasn't the ability for the two sides to agree on substance — the debate shifted into, '"Well, what do you do about the debt limit?"

That was a really hard negotiation. The demands were very big, it was a lot of spending cuts that were being demanded, and you just couldn't get there with policy that the two sides could agree to. There was a moment when we were worried that we were days away from a default when those of us in the room said: 'There's not a substantive¹⁴ agreement here, there's going to need to be a process.'

1 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

4 authorized   

a.委任的，许可的

参考例句：

• An administrative order is valid if authorized by a statute.如果一个行政命令得到一个法规的认可那么这个命令就是有效的。

5 refunds   

n.归还，偿还额，退款( refund的名词复数 )v.归还，退还( refund的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Tomorrow he would return them to the store and claim refunds. 明天他要把它们退还给商店并要求退款。 来自辞典例句
• The new method means that taxpayers get refunds much faster. 这种新办法意味着纳税人可以较快地领到退还款。 来自辞典例句

6 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

7 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

9 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

10 tightrope   

n.绷紧的绳索或钢丝

参考例句：

• The audience held their breath as the acrobat walked along the tightrope.杂技演员走钢丝时，观众都屏住了呼吸。
• The tightrope walker kept her balance by holding up an umbrella.走钢丝的演员举着一把伞，保持身体的均衡。

11 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

12 rattled   

慌乱的，恼火的

参考例句：

• The truck jolted and rattled over the rough ground. 卡车嘎吱嘎吱地在凹凸不平的地面上颠簸而行。
• Every time a bus went past, the windows rattled. 每逢公共汽车经过这里，窗户都格格作响。

13 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

14 substantive   

adj.表示实在的；本质的、实质性的；独立的；n.实词，实名词；独立存在的实体

参考例句：

• They plan to meet again in Rome very soon to begin substantive negotiations.他们计划不久在罗马再次会晤以开始实质性的谈判。
• A president needs substantive advice,but he also requires emotional succor. 一个总统需要实质性的建议，但也需要感情上的支持。