美国国家公共电台 NPR--The Federal Reserve's battle against inflation may be close to a turning point

The Federal Reserve's battle against inflation may be close to a turning point

Transcript¹

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates Wednesday for the tenth time in 14 months. While inflation is still well above the Fed's target, forecasters think this could be the last hike for a while.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

I'm Leila Fadel in Washington, D.C., where we're watching the Federal Reserve's 14-month battle against inflation.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Yeah. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates again this afternoon, but forecasters think that could be the last rate hike for a while. Today's meeting comes on the heels of another bank failure, which could complicate² the Fed's calculations.

FADEL: NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now to explain.

Good morning, Scott.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE³: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: So the Fed uses interest rate hikes to regulate inflation, which is still pretty high. Why is the Fed going to push the pause button after today?

HORSLEY: Well, they may. This would be the 10th rate hike in a row for the Fed, and you are beginning to feel the drag of those higher rates on the U.S. economy. The construction and manufacturing sectors⁵, which are particularly sensitive to interest rates, are in a slump⁶. Ordinary people are starting to spend less money. And the job market, although it's still pretty strong, is showing some signs of losing steam. So some observers think it's time for a pause in rate hikes. Lindsay Owens heads the Groundwork Collaborative. That's a progressive think tank here in Washington. She wants the Fed to take a breather and see if inflation continues to settle down.

LINDSAY OWENS: It's not the case that we have to keep hammering away at trying to slow growth in the labor⁷ market to bring down inflation. We can have both.

HORSLEY: This has already been the most aggressive series of interest rate hikes since the 1980s, so it's gotten a lot more expensive to borrow money for a business or get a car loan or carry a balance on your credit card. Another increase today would bring the Fed's benchmark rate to just over 5%, and that's about where the average Fed policymaker said rates ought to end up this year.

FADEL: Now, how does the recent turmoil⁸ in the banking⁹ system affect the Fed's calculations?

HORSLEY: It's definitely something the Fed is watching. Over the weekend, we saw another bank go under, with First Republic. That follows the collapse¹⁰ of Silicon¹¹ Valley Bank and Signature Bank back in March. In the wake of these failures, other banks are likely to be more cautious about making loans, and so that's another speed bump for the economy. It acts kind of like higher interest rates, but it's not nearly so carefully calibrated¹².

Economist¹³ Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics thinks the economy and the job market will be significantly weaker because of these bank failures, with an outright¹⁴ loss of jobs this summer. He wishes the Fed had stopped raising rates sooner, but he thinks they will stop after today.

IAN SHEPHERDSON: I do think that's the last one, and then things begin to change in June and finally in September. And as far as I'm concerned, the sooner the better.

HORSLEY: By this fall, Shepherdson thinks the central bank will be forced to start cutting interest rates. Now, the Fed's own forecasts do not indicate that. On average, policymakers expect rates to go a little bit higher today and then hold steady for the rest of the year.

FADEL: Now, Scott, how much of the trouble in the banking sector⁴ stems from the Fed's own actions?

HORSLEY: Well, they're certainly related. Some banks, like Silicon Valley, were caught off guard by the rapid rise in interest rates. Of course, banks are supposed to prepare for that possibility, so that's mainly the fault of the bank's own management. But the Fed did issue a scathing¹⁵ report last week, saying its own supervisors¹⁶ had failed to properly monitor Silicon Valley Bank, and that was a factor in the bank's collapse. Fed supervisors were slow to spot problems at the bank. And when the problems were identified, supervisors didn't act aggressively enough to make sure they were corrected.

Michael Barr, who is the top bank regulator at the Fed, blamed some of that on a policy choice that was made in 2019 to exempt¹⁷ all but the biggest banks from strict scrutiny¹⁸, as well as a culture of light-touch regulation at the Fed, and he promised more aggressive bank oversight¹⁹ going forward. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell endorsed²⁰ Barr's recommendation, and I suspect the chairman will get some questions about that during his news conference this afternoon.

FADEL: NPR's Scott Horsley.

Thanks, Scott.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 complicate   

vt.使复杂化，使混乱，使难懂

参考例句：

• There is no need to complicate matters.没有必要使问题复杂化。
• These events will greatly complicate the situation.这些事件将使局势变得极其复杂。

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

5 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

7 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

8 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

9 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

10 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

11 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

12 calibrated   

v.校准( calibrate的过去式和过去分词 )；使标准化；使合标准；测量（枪的）口径

参考例句：

• Power pesticide dusters can be calibrated and used to apply pertilizer. 动力杀虫剂可以调整用来施肥。 来自辞典例句
• The flexible diaphragm is connected to a plat cantilever-calibrated spring. 柔韧的膜片一扁平的悬臂校正弹簧相连。 来自辞典例句

13 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

14 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

15 scathing   

adj.（言词、文章）严厉的，尖刻的；不留情的adv.严厉地，尖刻地v.伤害，损害（尤指使之枯萎）( scathe的现在分词)

参考例句：

• a scathing attack on the new management 针对新的管理层的猛烈抨击
• Her speech was a scathing indictment of the government's record on crime. 她的演讲强烈指责了政府在犯罪问题上的表现。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 supervisors   

n.监督者，管理者( supervisor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• I think the best technical people make the best supervisors. 我认为最好的技术人员可以成为最好的管理人员。 来自辞典例句
• Even the foremen or first-level supervisors have a staffing responsibility. 甚至领班或第一线的监督人员也有任用的责任。 来自辞典例句

17 exempt   

adj.免除的；v.使免除；n.免税者，被免除义务者

参考例句：

• These goods are exempt from customs duties.这些货物免征关税。
• He is exempt from punishment about this thing.关于此事对他已免于处分。

18 scrutiny   

n.详细检查，仔细观察

参考例句：

• His work looks all right,but it will not bear scrutiny.他的工作似乎很好，但是经不起仔细检查。
• Few wives in their forties can weather such a scrutiny.很少年过四十的妻子经得起这么仔细的观察。

19 oversight   

n.勘漏，失察，疏忽

参考例句：

• I consider this a gross oversight on your part.我把这件事看作是你的一大疏忽。
• Your essay was not marked through an oversight on my part.由于我的疏忽你的文章没有打分。

20 endorsed   

vt.& vi.endorse的过去式或过去分词形式v.赞同( endorse的过去式和过去分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品

参考例句：

• The committee endorsed an initiative by the chairman to enter discussion about a possible merger. 委员会通过了主席提出的新方案，开始就可能进行的并购进行讨论。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The government has broadly endorsed a research paper proposing new educational targets for 14-year-olds. 政府基本上支持建议对14 岁少年实行新教育目标的研究报告。 来自《简明英汉词典》